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Informist, Tuesday, Sep 10, 2024

 

By Shubham Rana

 

NEW DELHI – India's industrial output is likely to have expanded 4.9% in July compared to 4.2% in the previous month, according to the median of estimates of 16 economists polled by Informist.

 

Industrial output grew 6.2% in July last year.

 

Estimates in the poll ranged from 3.3% to 6.0%. The National Statistical Office will release the Index of Industrial Production data for July at 1730 IST on Thursday.

 

Growt in industrial output is expected to have increased in July on the back of higher growth in the eight core industries, economists said. India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the Index of Industrial Production, grew 6.1% in July, against 5.1% in June.

 

Other high-frequency indicators showed a mixed trend in July.

 

While India's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index edged lower to 58.1 in July from 58.3 in June and merchandise exports declined 1.5% on year compared to growth of 5.8% in June, the numbers for the automobile sector painted a more positive picture of economic activity.

 

Growth in vehicle production increased to 16.8% year-on-year in July from 15.4% in June. E-way bills data also suggested an improvement in activity levels, with the number of bills generated up 19.2% in July compared to 16.3% in June.

 

"Going forward, we continue to expect IIP growth to stay in single digits, with a watch on monsoon effect on rural demand along with impact of likely US slowdown on domestic private sector capex recovery and overall industrial sector momentum," Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor, Union Bank of India, said in a note.

 

Industrial growth in the first quarter of 2024-25 has been 5.2%, up from 4.7% in the same period last year.

 

Following is a summary of the poll on IIP growth in July:

 

Range of expectations: 3.3-6.0%

Mean: 4.9%

Median: 4.9%

Mode: 5.8%

 

ORGANISATION	IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE  (IN %)
Sunidhi Securities	3.3
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities	4.0
DBS Bank	4.1
Kotak Mahindra Bank	4.1
Union Bank of India	4.3
Capital Economics	4.6
CareEdge Ratings	4.8
HDFC Bank	4.8
ICICI Bank	5.0
India Ratings and Research	5.0
ANZ Banking Group	5.1
Nomura	5.3
Moody's Analytics	5.6
Acuite Ratings and Research Ltd	5.8
QuantEco Research	5.8
Bank of Baroda	6.0

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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