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Informist, Monday, Sep 9, 2024

 

By Kuldeep Singh

 

NEW DELHI - The people of the erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir will finally vote in an assembly election later this month after a gap of 10 years. And the result may be the same despite the region's special status being abrogated in 2019, with the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir faced with the prospect of a hung assembly. The elections will be held in three phases – Sep 18, Sep 25, and Oct 1 – with counting of votes on Oct 8.

 

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won most of the seats in Jammu division, while the People's Democratic Party won the highest seats in Kashmir division. However, much has changed in the last 10 years, particularly after the abrogation of its special status.

 

The results of 2024 Lok Sabha elections indicated that while the BJP maintained its hold on the province of Jammu by winning both the seats, the party’s vote share plummeted. The major shocker, though, was in the Valley, where Omar Abdullah - National Conference's vice president - lost to independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh in Baramulla. On the whole, the results suggested the Valley is now thinking beyond the traditional parties.

 

"People in the valley are unhappy with the Centre and regional parties," noted Ajay Gudavarty, an associate professor at the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. "They have seen the corruption under regional parties and their alignment towards the Centre. There is a vacuum. Who will people in the valley vote for?" he added.

 

IN THE FRAY

While the 2014 elections yielded a hung assembly, the former state of Jammu & Kashmir got a new government after a couple of months once BJP and PDP forged an alliance. The government fell when the BJP pulled back its support in June 2018 and the Governor's rule was imposed subsequently, with the state assembly dissolved later that year in November. Since then, the people of the region have been without public representatives at the state level.

 

The absence of local elections has attracted the ire of residents of the region and has even grabbed global attention. In December, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission of India to hold assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir by September this year. In addition to the usual suspects, there are a few new entrants for the voters to choose from, including Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party, and the Aam Aadmi Party. Several separatists are also contesting elections as independents in the Kashmir division.

 

Historically, Kashmir had a bigger share of seats in the assembly as it housed a majority of the population. However, the removal of the special status followed by the delimitation exercise led to the addition of seven seats, with six of them in the Jammu division, taking the total to 90

seats--47 for Kashmir and 43 for Jammu.

 

Experts believe that the addition of six seats in Jammu and provisions related to the nomination of members to the assembly from certain communities will likely benefit the BJP.

 

HIGHER PARTICIPATION?

Although the Kashmir Valley has a history of boycotting elections, the voter turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has left the government optimistic.

As per Election Commission data, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed its highest poll participation in the last 35 years in the general elections, with voter turnout at 58.46%.

 

According to Centre for Political Studies' Gudavarty, the improvement in the voter turnout is because of weaker or no separatist sentiments in the Valley. "There was rigging in elections earlier. Today, the Valley doesn't have separatist sentiments. Even pro-Pakistan sentiments are absent. The Valley is going through a major transition," Gudavarty said.

 

Before 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it was perhaps the assembly elections of March 1987 when participation was as high. At the time, the separatist factions such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Ittihad-ul-Muslimeen formed the Syed Ali Shah Geelani-led Muslim United Front to counter the Congress-National Conference alliance.

 

However, the elections were believed to be rigged, with reports saying the government machinery in Srinagar and Delhi manipulated the results in favour of Congress and National Conference candidates. The outcome of those elections further distanced the people in the Valley from the Indian democratic setup.

 

STATE OF PLAY

The major issues in the forthcoming elections are the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir's statehood, special status, power to the Jammu & Kashmir assembly to provide special rights and privileges to permanent residents, and trade with Pakistan through the Line of Control.

 

For Gudavarty, there is no consensus in Kashmir on the abrogation of Article 370, while Jammu opposed the cancellation of statehood. Though both the regions vote differently, the Indian government has portrayed a picture of uniformity.

 

Interestingly, the BJP didn't field any candidate in Kashmir for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. As such, the results of the assembly elections will decide whether the new realignment by the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir works or not, Gudavarty said.  End

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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