Growth Outlook
IEA says slowdown in China oil demand to weigh on 2024, 2025 outlook
This story was originally published at 18:44 IST on 13 August 2024
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NEW DELHI – Growth in global oil demand is likely to be under a million barrel per day for both 2024 and 2025 due to a slowdown in China's fuel consumption, the International Energy Agency said today. The agency estimates that global demand will grow by 970,000 barrels a day this year and by 953,000 bpd in 2025, marginally lower than previous estimates.
"In June, Chinese oil demand contracted for a third consecutive month, driven by a slump in industrial inputs, including for the petrochemical sector," the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its August Oil Market Report. The agency said global oil demand rose by 870,000 barrels per day in Apr-Jun, with a contraction in China limiting gains.
The agency had said in July, China's oil imports sank to their lowest level since the stringent COVID-19 lockdowns of September 2022. "By contrast, demand in advanced economies, especially for US gasoline, has shown signs of strength in recent months," it said.
The energy watchdog's estimates are still substantially lower than those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC in its latest monthly report said it expects growth in global oil demand to be 2.1 mln bpd in 2024 and 1.8 mln bpd next year.
As for global production, the International Energy Agency said supply was struggling to keep pace with peak summer demand for now. In June, oil inventories across the globe fell 26.2 mln bbl.
The agency said crude oil production in July by permanent members of OPEC was 27.34 mln bpd compared with 27.09 mln bpd in the previous month. According to the agency's estimates, production by OPEC and allies was 41.7 mln bpd in July against 41.45 mln bpd in the previous month.
At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $79.61 per bbl, while that of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $81.80 per bbl. End
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Reported by Sayantan Sarkar
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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