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Informist, Monday, Aug 12, 2024

 

--India Jul CPI combined inflation rate 3.54% vs 5.08% Jun 

--Informist poll estimated India Jul CPI inflation at 3.7% 

--India Jul CPI food price inflation 5.42% vs 9.36% Jun 

--India Jul CPI rural inflation 4.10% vs 5.66% Jun 

--India Jul CPI urban inflation 2.98% vs 4.39% Jun 

--India Jul CPI combined index up 1.4% on month 

--India Jul CPI food price index up 2.8% on month 

--India Jul CPI cereals and products index up 0.6% on month 

--India Jul CPI vegetable index up 14.1% on month 

--India Jul CPI pulses and products index up 1.3% on month 

--India Jul CPI oils and fats index up 0.6% on month 

--India Jul CPI food, beverage index up 2.5% on month 

--India Jul CPI housing index up 0.5% on month 

--India Jul CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.2% on month 

--India Jul CPI fuel and light index down 0.2% on month 

--India Jul CPI miscellaneous index up 0.8% on month 

--India Jul CPI core inflation 3.4% vs 3.1% Jun 

--India Jul CPI inflation 3.54%, at 59-month low 

 

NEW DELHI – India's annual inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index fell to a 59-month low of 3.54% in July from a four-month high of 5.08% in June, data released today by the National Statistical Office showed. This is the first time CPI inflation has fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4% since September 2019.

CPI inflation was below the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, the headline inflation rate was seen at 3.7% in July.

 

The fall in the headline print was mainly because of a statistical effect of a high base. The base effect was such that had the overall index remained unchanged in July from the previous month, headline inflation would have fallen to 2.09%. 

 

Sequentially, the overall index rose 1.4% in July, the biggest month-on-month rise since July 2023. The month-on-month rise in July was mainly because of a 2.8% jump in the food price index. Food inflation fell to 5.42% in July from 9.36% in June.

 

The rise in food prices was led by a 14.1% month-on-month jump in vegetables, particularly tomato, onion, and potato. The tomato index surged 41.8% on month in July and the onion index was up 20.5% from the previous month. The potato index rose 16.6% in July from the previous month.

 

Apart from vegetables, pulses prices also rose in July, up 1.3% from the previous month.

 

Core inflation, which strips out fuel and food items, rose to 3.4% in July from a record low of 3.1% in June. This is the first time core inflation has risen in 20 months. The rise in core inflation was likely because of an increase in telecom tariffs last month and a rise in gold prices.

 

Even as CPI inflation fell below 4% in July, it is expected to rise above the RBI's target in August and September. The RBI has projected CPI inflation at 4.4% for Jul-Sep, which implies the headline print could be much higher than 4% in the next two months.

 

Economists, however, are of the view that August CPI inflation could also be below 4%, and Jul-Sep inflation could be less than RBI's estimate of 4.4%.

 

"Food and beverages inflation print should ease further in the ongoing month, thereby dampening the headline CPI inflation to 3.4% in August 2024," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said in a note. "Nevertheless, the trajectory of perishable prices remains a key monitorable in the near-term."

 

The following table details sequential and annual increase in the main components in CPI (Combined):

 

	Weight	Index for July	Month-on-month change (in %)	Year-on-year change (in %)
				July	June
Cereals and products	9.67	191.3	0.6	8.14	8.75
Meat and fish	3.61	230.8	(-)1.6	5.97	5.39
Egg	0.43	194.2	2.0	6.76	4.10
Milk and products	6.61	185.9	0.3	2.99	3.00
Oils and fats	3.56	161.0	0.6	(-)1.17	(-)2.68
Vegetables	6.04	267.3	14.1	6.83	29.32
Pulses and products	2.38	213.7	1.3	14.77	16.07
Sugar and confectionery	1.36	131.0	0.2	5.22	5.83
Spices	2.50	227.9	0.1	(-)1.43	2.06
Food and beverages	45.86	203.3	2.5	5.06	8.36
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.38	208.2	0.2	3.02	3.08
Clothing and footwear	6.53	192.3	0.2	2.67	2.73
Housing	10.07	180.0	0.5	2.68	2.69
Fuel and light	6.84	176.0	(-)0.2	(-)5.48	(-)3.61
Miscellaneous	28.32	183.6	0.8	3.79	3.41
General Index	100	192.9	1.4	3.54	5.08
Consumer Food Price Index	39.06	204.3	2.8	5.42	9.36

 

 

	INDEX NUMBER							INFLATION RATE (%)
Month	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019		2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Jan	185.5	176.5	165.7	156.3	150.2	139.6		5.10	6.52	6.01	4.06	7.59	1.97
Feb	185.8	176.8	166.1	156.6	149.1	139.9		5.09	6.44	6.07	5.03	6.58	2.57
Mar	185.8	177.2	167.7	156.8	148.6	140.4		4.85	5.66	6.95	5.52	5.84	2.86
Apr	186.7	178.1	170.1	157.8	151.4#	141.2		4.83	4.70	7.79	4.23	7.22#	2.99
May	187.7	179.1	171.7	160.4	150.9#	142.0		4.80	4.31	7.04	6.30	6.27#	3.05
Jun	190.2	181.0	172.6	161.3	151.8	142.9		5.08	4.87	7.01	6.26	6.23	3.18
Jul	192.9*	186.3	173.4	162.5	153.9	144.2		3.54*	7.44	6.71	5.59	6.73	3.15
Aug		186.2	174.3	162.9	154.7	145.0			6.83	7.00	5.30	6.69	3.28
Sep		184.1	175.3	163.2	156.4	145.8			5.02	7.41	4.35	7.27	3.99
Oct		185.3	176.7	165.5	158.4	147.2			4.87	6.77	4.48	7.61	4.62
Nov		186.3	176.5	166.7	158.9	148.6			5.55	5.88	4.91	6.93	5.54
Dec		185.7	175.7	166.2	157.3	150.4			5.69	5.72	5.66	4.59	7.35

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

"#Based on imputed data

*Provisional"

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

 

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