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Informist, Monday, Aug 12, 2024

 

--OPEC: OECD Jun oil stocks down 14.1 mln bbl on-month at 2.83 bln bbl

--OPEC: OECD Jun crude stocks 116 mln bbl lower than 2015-2019 avg

--OPEC cuts 2024 oil demand growth view by 135,000 bpd to 2.1 mln bpd

--OPEC cuts 2025 oil demand growth view by 65,000 bpd to 1.8 mln bpd

--OPEC keeps 2024 non-OPEC oil supply growth view unch at 1.2 mln bpd

--OPEC keeps 2025 non-OPEC oil supply growth view unch at 1.1 mln bpd

--OPEC's Jul oil production at 26.75 mln bpd, up 185,000 bpd on month

--OPEC, allies' Jul oil output 40.91 mln bpd, up 117,000 bpd on month

--OPEC: Saudi Arabia Jul oil output 9 mln bpd, up 97,000 bpd on month

 

NEW DELHI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has revised down its forecasts for growth in global oil demand for 2024 and 2025 as the cartel expects China's consumption to soften this year. For 2024, the cartel has trimmed its forecast for growth in global oil demand by 135,000 barrels per day, and now expects growth at 2.1 mln bpd this year, OPEC said in its August Oil Market Report. 

 

"This slight revision reflects actual data received for 1Q24 (Jan-Mar) and in some cases 2Q24 (Apr-Jun), as well as softening expectations for China's oil demand growth in 2024," OPEC said. 

 

In 2025, the cartel said it expects demand for crude oil to rise by a further 1.8 mln bpd, 65,000 bpd lower than the previous month's estimate. Next year, demand for oil is expected to increase by just 100,000 bpd in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, while in the non-OECD, it is estimated to grow by 1.7 mln bpd. 

 

OPEC sees demand for crude oil in 2024 at 104.3 mln bpd and in 2025 at 106.11 mln bpd, according to the Monthly Oil Market report released today.

 

The cartel has forecast demand for crude oil from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC and allies) in 2024 at 43.0 mln bpd, 100,000 bpd lower from the last projection, but 800,000 bpd higher than that in 2023. In 2025, the call on OPEC and allies is to produce 43.6 mln bpd, around 600,000 bpd higher than the 2024 estimate, according to the report.

 

India's oil demand in 2024 is seen at 5.58 mln bpd, 4.4% higher than in 2023, OPEC said. In 2025, the country is expected to consume 5.80 mln bpd of oil, a growth of 4%. Both estimates remain unchanged from the previous month.  

 

In July, OPEC's crude oil production rose 185,000 bpd to 26.75 mln bpd, according to secondary sources cited by the cartel. Production mainly rose in Saudi Arabia and Iraq last month. Production by Iraq rose by 57,000 bpd month-on-month to 4.25 mln bpd. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer of the group, produced 9.02 mln bpd of crude oil last month, up 97,000 bpd from June.

 

Production of crude oil by OPEC and its allies in July was 40.91 mln bpd, up 117,000 bpd from the previous month. Production in Russia and Kazakhstan fell 26,000 bpd and 34,000 bpd, respectively, according to the report.

 

The cartel has forecast growth in oil supply from countries outside of OPEC and allies at 1.2 mln bpd, unchanged from the previous estimate. "The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada and Brazil," it said. In 2025, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1.1 mln bpd, which also remains unchanged from the previous projection. "The growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway."

 

In June, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell 14.1 mln bbl to 2.83 bln bbl, according to the report. Stocks in July were 116 mln bbl lower than the 2015-19 pre-pandemic average.

 

At 1541 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $77.67 per bbl and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $80.35 per bbl, both up 1%.  End

 

US$1 = 83.97 rupees

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Sayantan Sarkar

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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