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Informist, Friday, Aug 9, 2024

 

By Shubham Rana

 

MUMBAI - Growth in India's industrial production is expected to have slowed down to 5.1% in June from a seven-month high of 5.9% in May, according to the median of estimates of 14 economists in an Informist poll. Industrial output had grown 4.0% in June 2023.

 

Industrial output growth is expected to moderate mainly because of slower growth in the eight core industries, economists said. The growth in the output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the Index of Industrial Production, fell to a 20-month low of 4.0% in June from 6.4% in May.

 

If the factory output grows at 5.1% in June, as projected, it will be the fifth consecutive month the Index of Index Production would have grown at 5.0% or above. Estimates in the poll varied from 4.0% to 7.0%. The National Statistical Office will detail the Index of Industrial Production data for June at 1730 IST on Monday.

 

An industrial production growth print of 5.1% in June would mean that the overall index fell by 1.9% from the previous month, higher than the historical average fall of 1.4%, barring the COVID-19-hit year of 2020-21 (Apr-Mar).

 

Most high frequency indicators also showed a decline in the growth of factory output in June. Goods exports rose just 2.6% on year in June as compared to a growth of 9.1% in May. Vehicle production growth was down to 15.4% on year in June as against 15.6% in May. Growth in e-way bills generated also eased to 16.3% in June from 17.0% in May.

 

However, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 58.3 in June from 57.5 in May.

 

Following is a summary of the details and estimates of respondents for IIP growth in June, in ascending order:

 

Range of expectations: 4.0-7.0%

Mean: 5.3%

Median: 5.1%

Mode: 4.5%

 

ORGANISATION	IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE
India Ratings and Research	4.0%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	4.4%
Bank of Baroda	4.5%
ICRA	4.5%
ICICI Bank	4.6%
CareEdge Ratings	4.8%
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities	5.0%
QuantEco Research	5.1%
Union Bank of India	5.2%
Kotak Mahindra Bank	6.1%
State Bank of India	6.2%
STCI Primary Dealer	6.49%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	6.8%
Capital Economics	7.0%

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

 

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