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Informist, Tuesday, Jul 30, 2024

 

--ISMA: 2024-25 gross sugar output seen 33.31 mln tn

--CONTEXT: 2023-24 gross sugar output was 33.99 mln tn

--ISMA: 2024-25 surplus sugar stock seen at 7.85 mln tn 

--ISMA: Sugar stock seen enough for ethanol blending in 2024-25 

--ISMA: Sugar stock seen enough for exports in current season 

--ISMA: Uttar Pradesh gross sugar output in 2024-25 seen 11.30 mln tn 

--ISMA: Maharashtra gross sugar output in 2024-25 seen 11.10 mln tn

--ISMA: Gujarat gross sugar output in 2024-25 seen 998,000 tn 

--ISMA: Tamil Nadu gross sugar output in 2024-25 seen 884,000 tn 

--ISMA: Karnataka gross sugar output in 2024-25 seen 5.65 mln tn

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

MUMBAI – The Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association's preliminary estimate of gross sugar output in the 2024-25 season starting October is 33.31 mln tn, down 2% from 33.99 mln tn last season, according to a release from the organisation that Informist exclusively accessed. Gross sugar output is estimated before sucrose diversion for ethanol making.

 

"Overall, the projections for the 2024-25 SS (sugar season) are significantly more optimistic than those forecasted a few months ago. We are confident that the upcoming sugar season will be productive and successful," the release said. Based on satellite images obtained in late June, the association has projected sugarcane acreage in 2024-25 at 5.60 mln ha, 6% down from 5.94 mln ha last year.

 

Today, representatives of the association gathered to discuss and detail projected sugar production in the upcoming season. The association did not detail sucrose diversion for the upcoming season, as the government has not yet announced its ethanol policy for sugarcane feedstocks for the next season. 

 

The association has estimated sugar diversion for ethanol in 2023-24 (Oct-Sep) at 2.03 mln tn. In December, the government capped the amount of sucrose that could be diverted for ethanol production at a little over 2 mln tn as sugar prices firmed up amid concerns about lower production of the sweetener.

 

"In the broader interest of the country... the diversion (for ethanol production) from B-heavy (molasses) and sugarcane juice was cut," Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said at the All India Sugar Trade Association's Sugar and Bioenergy Conclave on Saturday. "Of course, later we did relax a bit. Overall, about 25 lakh (2.5 mln) tn of sucrose has been diverted in the sugar year 2023-24."

 

Chopra said the industry has expressed doubts whether the restrictions on sucrose diversion will continue in the next season as well. "We would in the very near future give that comfort to the industry as to what would be the policy of the government in the 2024-25 sugar season," he said.

 

With the 2024-25 opening stock as of Oct 1 estimated at 9.05 mln tn and gross sugar output in 2024-25 at 33.31 mln tn, the sugar manufacturers' association has projected total sugar availability in the upcoming season at 42.35 mln tn. With an annual domestic consumption demand of 29.0 mln tn, the body has pegged closing stocks in September 2025 at 13.35 mln tn.

 

With the buffer stock requirement for a little over two months kept at 5.5 mln tn, the association has projected a surplus stock of 7.85 mln tn in the sugar season 2024-25. "The excess stock of sugar will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending Programme in 2024-25 season and exports in the current season," it said in the release.

 

However, government officials have said resumption of sugar exports is not a priority and exports are unlikely to be allowed at least till September. The priority is to ensure sufficient sugar availability in the country and follow the ethanol blending programme, they said. To reduce dependence on crude oil imports, the government has set a target of achieving 15% blending of ethanol with petrol in 2023-24 (Nov-Oct), 18% in the subsequent year, and 20% in 2025-26.

 

In 2024-25 (Oct-Sep), Uttar Pradesh, the country's top sugar producer, is seen making 11.3 mln tn sugar, up 3.6% from 10.9 mln tn last year. The overall condition of standing sugarcane remains robust in the state, the association said in the release. "Additionally, the diversion of cane towards jaggery and khandsari units is expected to be lower than last year, aligning with normal trends, thus contributing positively to sugar production," it added.

 

However, sugar output in Maharashtra and Karnataka are seen lower due to reductions in sugarcane acreage due to deficient rainfall last year. However, abundant rains so far, and positive forecasts for the rest of the monsoon season, reduce the impact of lower cane acreage, ISMA said. "As a result, we expect only a minimal decline of 3-5% in gross sugar production in these states," it added.

 

Maharashtra's sugar production is seen at 11.1 mln tn, down 5.1% from 11.7 mln tn last year. Karnataka's sugar output is seen down 3% at 5.65 mln tn from 5.82 mln tn.

 

Sugar output in Tamil Nadu is seen at 884,000 tn, down 28% from 1.23 mln tn last year. Gujarat's output is seen at 998,000 tn, up 8.5% on year. In other states, sugar output is seen at 3.37 mln tn, down 1.5% on year. "The above estimate is made assuming normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period,"  the sugar manufacturers' body said.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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