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Informist, Monday, Jul 29, 2024

 

By Rajesh Gajra

 

MUMBAI – Upstream crude oil and natural gas explorer and producer Oil India Ltd is likely to have faced muted volume growth sequentially. The small increase in crude oil prices wouldn't have aided the state-owned company's topline due to higher windfall taxes. On an annual basis, however, Oil India's sales and profit are seen recording moderate growth.

 

Oil India is expected to report a net profit of 17.32 bln rupees in the June quarter, as per an average of estimates by eight brokerages. This is 7.3% higher than a year ago and 14.7% down over the previous quarter. Net sales are seen at 57.93 bln rupees, up 28% on year and 4.8% sequentially.

 

The estimates peg the net profit between a low of 15.33 bln rupees and a high of 18.90 bln rupees, while the estimates for net sales range from 53.45 bln rupees to 61.80 bln rupees. The EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, of the company is seen at 25.51 bln rupees, as per an average of estimates by seven brokerages. The estimates peg it in a range of 24.55 bln rupees and 26.95 bln rupees.

 

Crude oil sales volume is likely to grow a mere 2% on quarter to 860,000 tn, according to Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal Financial Services. This is 15% higher compared with the year-ago quarter. YES Securities expects crude sales volume to have risen 1.9% on quarter.

 

Crude oil prices were higher in the June quarter, according to Kotak Securities. However, this would not benefit Oil India's topline due to an "increase in windfall taxes," it said. According to the brokerage, on a 2% expected volume increase over the previous quarter, the gross crude oil sales realisation would have been $84.9 per barrel. However, after windfall tax, royalty and cess, the net crude oil realisation would have been much lower at $50 per barrel. Net crude oil realisation would be 5.5% down on quarter, it said. Motilal Oswal Financial sees net crude oil realisation declining 2% on quarter, while YES Securities estimates it to be $76 per barrel.

 

Oil India's natural gas sales volume in Apr-Jun would likely have increased 3% sequentially and 23% over the year-ago quarter, according to Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal Financial. However, it is seen declining 1.9% as per YES Securities.

 

Oil India is yet to announce the board meeting date for the approval of its Apr-Jun financial results. Post the earnings announcement, investors will be watching for management updates on "production in the Baghjan field" and "progress of NRL (arm Numaligarh Refinery Ltd) capacity expansion," Motilal Oswal Financial said.

 

At 1002 IST, shares of Oil India traded 3.1% higher at 578.10 rupees on the National Stock Exchange.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun standalone earnings estimates of Oil India from eight brokerage houses:

 

Broker name	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
	-------(In mln rupees)-------
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	56,874	18,526	--
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	53,448	17,042	25,157
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	59,411	15,327	26,171
Kotak Institutional Equities	59,408	16,574	25,349
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	59,848	18,225	24,545
Nomura Equity Research	56,500	16,200	25,200
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	61,800	18,900	25,200
YES Securities (India) Ltd	56,177	17,726	26,949
Average	57,933	17,315	25,510

 

End

US$1 = 83.72 rupees

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Namrata Rao

 

 

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