Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024

MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has slightly revised downward its forecasts for growth in global crude oil demand for 2024 and 2025. The growth forecast for 2024 has been trimmed by nearly 107,000 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, OPEC said in its October Oil Market Report. The cartel sees demand for crude oil in 2025 rising by 1.5 million barrels per day, 103,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month's estimate.

Demand for oil from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries is expected to grow by around 100,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to the report. Demand for oil in non-OECD countries is expected to grow by around 1.4 million barrels per day this year, it said.

OPEC now sees total demand for oil in 2024 at 104.03 million barrels per day and at 105.57 million barrels per day in 2025. "Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.0 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong transportation fuel demand and ongoing healthy economic growth, particularly in a number of non-OECD countries. Similarly, refinery capacity additions and petrochemical margins– mostly in China and the Middle East – are expected to contribute to oil demand growth," OPEC said.

The cartel has increased its forecast for crude oil demand from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC and allies) in 2024 by 160,000 barrels per day to 45.81 million barrels per day. In 2025, the call on OPEC and allies is to produce 45.91 million barrels per day, 110,000 barrels per day higher than its previous estimate, according to the report.

India's oil demand in 2024 is seen at 5.6 million barrels per day, 5% higher than in 2023, OPEC said. In 2025, the country is expected to consume nearly 584 million barrels per day of oil.

In October, according to secondary sources, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.53 million barrels per day, which is 466,000 barrels per day higher on month. Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Nigeria and Congo, while production in Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait decreased.

OECD liquids production (excluding DoC participating country Mexico) is anticipated to expand by about 800,000 barrels per day to average 31.5 million barrels per day. Growth is set to be led by OECD Americas, with an expected increase of 800,000 barrels per day to average 27.5 million barrels per day. This was revised up by about 35,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month's assessment.

Production of crude oil by OPEC and its allies in October was 40.34 million barrels per day, up 215,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Production in Russia rose by 9,000 barrels per day, according to the report.

The cartel has forecast growth in oil supply from countries outside of OPEC and allies at 1.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous estimate. "The main growth drivers are expected to be the US and Canada," it said. In 2025, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, which also remains unchanged from the previous projection. "The growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway."

In September, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell by 3.0 million barrels per day to nearly 2.81 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks in September were 158.9 million barrels lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average.

At 1627 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $68.478 per barrel, and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $72.22 per barrel, both down 0.6% from the previous close. End

US$1 = INR 84.39

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy and Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Vidhi Verma

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