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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026

 

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--IEA: US-Iran war restricts oil availability, fuelling prices 
--IEA: Crude prices rose 13% since Sept at $107 per barrel
--IEA: Oil supply to decline by 5.8 mln b/d to 100.7 mln b/d
--CONTEXT: International Energy Agency releases October oil market report 
--IEA: See global oil demand fall by 2.6 mln bpd 2026 vs 2.5 mln bpd earlier

 

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency has further lowered its forecast of global crude oil demand in 2026 from its earlier estimate. According to its October report released Wednesday, world oil demand is seen to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day as compared with its earlier forecast of a fall of 2.5 million barrels per day. Demand for oil in 2026 is expected to fall "as the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook", it said.

 

A recovery in supply from West Asia was underway in September, with Gulf crude oil exports approaching pre-war levels. "However, the recent escalation in attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tanker traffic is threatening to derail further gains," the report said. At the same time, record tanker rates raised crude delivery costs and eroded refinery margins. Brent crude futures have risen 13% since the start of September to around $107 per barrel. Physical markets have increased much more, with North Sea Dated up 43% at $134 per barrel and other North Sea grades trading up to $160 per barrel, the report noted.

 

Oil supply is projected to post an average annual decline of 5.8 million barrels per day to 100.7 million barrels per day this year, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027, it said. Global refinery runs will drop by 2.3 million barrels per day to 81.7 million barrels per day this year, and rise by 2.8 million barrels per day in 2027, it said. "Record freight and crude costs crushed margins in Europe and Asia, while discounted feedstocks propelled US margins to new highs," the agency said.

 

Global oil inventories edged down by 10 million barrels in September as a further 113 million barrel decline in on-land stocks was largely offset by a surge in oil on water. Non-OECD crude stocks slumped by 76 million barrels, with China accounting for 78% of the decline, while OECD inventories dropped by 37 million barrels. Global stocks were 509 million barrels lower than at end-February, the report observed.

 

Despite lower demand, oil market balances are forecast to remain in deficit through the end of the year, with constrained middle distillate supplies likely to persist well into 2027, the agency said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.15

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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