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Informist, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are likely to remain volatile in October, with a slight weakness as rising US bond yields and a strong dollar have dented the outlook for the precious metal, according to analysts. However, with markets dialling back bets of another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this month, easing yields will limit gold's fall.

 

In October, the most-active December gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is expected to move in the range of INR 144,000-INR 155,000 per 10 grams, as per the median of eight estimates from broking firms polled by Informist. On COMEX, gold is seen at $4,000-$4,310 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing, gold was at $4,189.8 per ounce, up 0.7% or $26.7 from Friday.

 

In September, gold prices fell over 6% on month on a closing basis and were down nearly 26% from the record level of $5,600 hit in January. Gold may not recover fully from the fall in September as higher crude oil prices have kept inflation worries alive, keeping US yields and the dollar strong, according to some analysts. 

 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovered near 5.3% Friday, the highest level since 2022. Yields have surged globally, driven by energy-led inflation worries and the boom in artificial intelligence lifting expectations of economic growth. "The dollar index and bond yields are at record-high levels and continue to keep markets highly volatile," Prithvi Finmart's Manoj Kumar Jain said. The uncertainty around the US-Iran peace negotiations and concerns about US Fed rate hikes are adding to the volatility. 

 

"Fixed assets are giving higher yields than non-fixed assets. Gold is likely to continue trading with volatility. Levels can be tested on both sides," Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities said. He sees gold falling to $3,950 per ounce if the support at $4,000 is broken. On the upside, he sees gold facing resistance at $4,300-$4,350 in October.

 

Despite Friday's jobs report showing that unemployment in US grew slower than expected, gold declined 3% on week as high crude oil prices weighed on market sentiment. US non-farm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 90,000. Markets are now pricing only a 22% chance of a rate hike in October, significantly down from more than 71% last week. But they see at least one 25 basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026.

 

Most analysts have positioned September's low as the key support for gold in October. However, they don't expect gold to scale the high of $4,534.3 hit last month on hopes of US-Iran hostilities easing and dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams in early September. On Sept. 16, however, the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years to 3.75-4.00% and gold prices hit a low of $4,129.2 per ounce in late September.

 

Gold has been declining from the record highs hit in January, barring a brief rise in August. Though gold prices have fallen over 6% in September, they have respected the critical support of $4,000 per ounce last month. 

 

According to BMI, a resolution to the US-Iran war through a preliminary deal could ease crude oil prices, prompting rate cuts by the Fed and weakening the dollar, which could push gold above $4,500 per ounce. "On the downside is a re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, a sharper rise in the US dollar, and bond yields in case the Fed raises rates again. This would significantly reduce gold's appeal, causing a sell-off and bringing prices back to $3,000-3,500/oz levels," BMI said.

 

For local prices, rupee depreciation may offer some support to gold prices on MCX. "A 1% rupee depreciation, all else (being) equal, should add roughly 1% to domestic gold, cushioning part of a COMEX correction," Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager, founder, and chief executive officer of Quantace Research, said. Analysts said gold purchases amid festivals are not likely to push MCX prices higher. "Festive buying tends to show up in local premiums and discounts rather than in futures prices," Anindya Banerjee of Kotak Securities said. 

 

Analysts see MCX gold prices largely tracking those on COMEX. "Gold at COMEX is having major support at $4,110 per ounce, and the gold December contract on MCX is having support at INR 147,700 per 10 grams," Prithvi Finmart's Jain said. "If prices fall below these levels, they could test $3,980 and INR 144,000 levels. On the other side, if prices sustain above $4,220, or INR 152,200 levels, they could show further strength towards $4,365 or INR 157,000."

 

Following are the estimates from eight brokerages for gold prices in October, in alphabetical order of brokerage name:

 

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
Arthavrksh Financial Services	4,100-3,830	4,200-4,380	143,750	159,450
Kedia Advisory	3,960	4,360	142,000	158,000
Kotak Securities	4,100-4,000	4,250-4,300	145,000-140,000	152,000-155,000
LKP Securities	4,000-3,950	4,300-4,350	144,000-142,000	154,000-155,000
Nirmal Bang	4,135-4,000	4,200-4,320	147,000-142,000	152,500-157,000
Prithvi Finmart	4,110-3,980	4,220-4,365	147,700-144,000	152,200-157,000
Quantace Research	4,100-4,140	4,380-4,400	147,000-144,500	153,500-155,100
Ventura Securities	4,100-3,800	4,200	146,500	150,250
Median	4,000	4,310	144,000	155,000

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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