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Informist, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee retreated from the day's high Monday to end steady against the dollar as banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales supported the Indian currency during the session.

 

"There wasn't much volume on both sides today," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "RBI was just supplying (dollars) as per demand. The market is now waiting for the RBI's MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting."

 

After hitting the day's high of 96.2100 a dollar, the rupee settled at 96.2925 a dollar, broadly steady against 96.3150 at the close of the previous session Thursday. The rupee moved in a tight range of just 10 paise throughout the day as the RBI shielded it from dollar demand. Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar, with the Thai baht falling the most.

 

The rupee opened on a strong footing against the dollar as crude oil prices fell from a high of $103 a barrel seen during the weekend, dealers said. Crude oil prices fell primarily because of easing supply concerns in West Asia and coordinated plans by the Group of Seven developed countries to release emergency fuel reserves. However, as the day progressed, crude oil prices climbed back as the market shifted focus to prolonged supply disruptions due to the war in West Asia.

 

Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Monday said Tehran had received a response from the US on its proposal to end the war but warned that the "era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands is over". He also said the "Strait of Hormuz will not open until our seven conditions" are met. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was at $102.71 a barrel, up from $102.25 Friday.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose to its highest level since Apr. 10, 2025, due to safe-haven demand, which put further pressure on the Indian unit. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 102.21, up from 101.88 Friday.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, which weighed on the Indian currency. In September, FPIs withdrew over $6.5 billion from the domestic market, the highest monthly outflow in five months. So far in 2026, they have net pulled out $22.27 billion from Indian markets, more than double the $10.92 billion they pulled out in the whole of 2025.

 

The only respite for the rupee Monday was the RBI's support. Some public-sector banks sold dollars, likely for the RBI, at multiple levels. The central bank had sold around $10 billion in the previous week, defending the rupee against a sharp rise in crude oil price and the strong dollar.

 

Dealers said the market now awaits the interest rate decision of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, scheduled for Wednesday, with a 25 basis-point increase broadly expected. Market participants will also watch for the central bank's guidance on the interest-rate trajectory. "The rupee (USD/INR) will fall back to 96 (a dollar) if the RBI hikes the rate by 25 basis points. But the dollar demand will bring the rupee back to current levels. However, if the RBI keeps rates unchanged, the rupee may touch 96.75 (a dollar)" a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2925	96.2150	96.2100	96.3050	96.3150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	319.90	310.62	320.02	309.52	317.30

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Monday as dealers speculated that the RBI conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in 5-6 months to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The five-month dollar-rupee forward premium rose to 3.77% from its previous close of 3.70%. The six-month dollar-rupee forward premium was up 6 basis points at 3.68%.

 

The RBI has been conducting foreign exchange swaps almost every day, but most dealers said the quantum of the swaps was not very significant in recent days. The net liquidity absorbed by the RBI -- an indicator of the banking system liquidity surplus -- was INR 5.16 trillion Sunday, similar to INR 5.17 trillion Saturday. The liquidity surplus in the system fell from a record high of INR 11.16 trillion in September.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support across tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared further depreciation of the Indian currency, they said. The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.32%, higher than Thursday's close of 3.29%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 319.90 paise, against 317.30 paise Thursday. The financial markets were shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Investors now await a fresh batch of economic data this week for further cues, including the ISM services activity report, minutes from the Fed's September meeting, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading.

 

Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee decision scheduled for Wednesday. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to contain inflationary pressures.

 

"Expectations of a 25 bp rate hike could keep volatility elevated, while the RBI's policy guidance and stance will be closely watched for further direction," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, at LKP Securities, said.

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.35 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.00-96.35 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index nears 17-month high on safe-haven demand

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3236	1.3250	1.3191	1.3242
EUR/USD	1.1213	1.1261	1.1161	1.1260
NZD/USD	0.5598	0.5620	0.5585	0.5614
AUD/USD	0.6963	0.6964	0.6931	0.6941
USD/JPY	157.8480	158.1710	157.4400	157.8200
USD/CAD	1.4244	1.4293	1.4244	1.4246
EUR/JPY	177.0030	177.7690	176.2250	177.6952
CHF/USD	1.2055	1.2082	1.2025	1.2062
EUR/CHF	0.9301	0.9331	0.9273	0.9333

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index held near a 17-month high Monday as investors weighed fading expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike this month against mounting fiscal concerns in France that sent the euro to its lowest level in 17 months. At 1420 IST, the dollar index was at 102.21, up from 101.88 Monday.

 

The dollar index was also supported by safe-haven demand flows as tensions in West Asia remained high. The head of Yemen's presidential leadership council, Rashad al-Alimi, announced the start of major military operations to retake territory held by the Iran-backed Houthis. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said "there is no military solution" to the conflict with the US, but warned that Tehran remains ready to defend against any attacks.

 

The euro recovered slightly to $1.1203 Monday after falling sharply to its weakest level since May 2025, as a sell-off in French government bonds and concerns over the country's debt and political outlook fuelled concerns that financial stress could spread across the eurozone.

 

The dollar's resilience came despite weaker-than-expected US jobs data, which tempered expectations for near-term Fed tightening.

 

The Swiss franc stood at 0.8286 per dollar, after gaining more than 1% last week. The Australian dollar was little changed at 1.4362 a dollar, while the Canadian dollar slipped 0.3% to 1.429 per dollar.

 

The Japanese yen erased the early gains and was broadly steady against the dollar at 157.91 after Japan's services sector expanded at a weaker pace in September. The ‌S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 51.3 in September from a five-month high of 52.5 in August, worse than a flash reading of 51.6.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums up on RBI's likely FX swaps, importer demand

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2925	96.2150	96.2100	96.2950	96.3150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.90	310.62	319.02	309.52	317.30

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Monday as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in 5-6 months to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The five-month dollar-rupee forward premium rose to 3.75% from its previous close of 3.70%. The six-month dollar-rupee forward premium was up 4 basis points at 3.66%.

 

The RBI has been conducting foreign exchange swaps almost every day, but most dealers said the quantum of the swaps was not very significant in recent days. The net liquidity absorbed by the RBI -- an indicator of the banking system liquidity surplus -- was INR 5.16 trillion Sunday, similar to INR 5.17 trillion Saturday. The liquidity surplus in the system fell from a record high of INR 11.16 trillion in September.

 

Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support across tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared further depreciation of the Indian currency, they said. The rupee was steady at around 96.29 as the RBI shielded it from strong dollar demand. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.31%, higher than Thursday's close of 3.29%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 318.90 paise, against 317.30 paise Thursday. The capital markets were shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases some gains on dollar demand; RBI intervention supports

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2825	96.2150	96.2100	96.2950	96.3150

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some of its gains but remained range-bound as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank has kept the rupee anchored in a very tight range, they said. "It will be tough to break 96.30 a dollar today as the RBI is present. I think today the move is more towards 96.20 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee opened at 96.2150 a dollar and erased around 8 paise during the day due to strong dollar demand. Banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, weighing on the Indian unit. In September, FPIs withdrew over $6.5 billion from the domestic market, the highest monthly outflow in five months.

 

The only respite for the rupee Monday was falling crude oil prices after G7 countries announced releases of their emergency oil reserves, rather than moves to restrict oil exports. Brent crude for December delivery was at $101.27 a barrel at 1200 IST, down from $102.25 on Friday. However, an Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until Iran's conditions are met, dampening hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in the near term.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose to its highest level since Apr. 10, 2025, due to safe-haven demand. At 1200 IST, the dollar index was at 102.32, up from 101.88 on Friday.

 

Dealers said the market awaits the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decision, with a 25-basis-point rate hike broadly expected. Market participants will also watch for the central bank's guidance on the interest-rate trajectory. "The rupee may remain in the same range, with around a 10-paise appreciation on a 25-bps rate hike, because the market has already priced in a hike in October," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 96.00-96.30 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.30 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 5

 

MUMBAI – At 1117 IST, the rupee was at 96.2700 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.2150 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.3150. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.40	96.30	95.95	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.35	96.25	95.95	95.85
Brokerage firm	96.35	96.30	96.00	95.95
Brokerage firm	96.30	96.25	96.00	95.90

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as crude falls; importers, FPIs' dlr demand to weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2500	96.2150	96.2100	96.2575	96.3150

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched up against the dollar as crude oil prices fell from a high of $103 a barrel seen during the weekend, dealers said. "Crude oil prices fell a little, and the market is carrying that sentiment. If we exclude the depreciation seen in the last 15 minutes Thursday, the rupee is broadly trading around the same range," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "I don't see it (USD/INR) below 96 (a dollar) unless there is positive geopolitical news," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

Crude oil prices are falling primarily due to easing supply concerns in West Asia and coordinated plans by the G-7 to release emergency fuel reserves. The decision comes as oil prices climb back toward the $100-a-barrel level amid prolonged supply disruptions.

 

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has received a response from the US on its proposal to end the war but warns that the "era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands is over." He also said the "Strait of Hormuz will not open until our seven conditions" are met. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was $101.46 a barrel, $102.25 Friday.

 

However, banks' dollar purchases for importers and foreign portfolio investors will continue to weigh on the Indian unit. So far in 2026, FPIs have net pulled out $22.27 billion from Indian markets, more than double the $10.92 billion they pulled out in the whole of 2025. In September, FPIs withdrew over $6.5 billion worth of funds from the domestic market.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 96.00-96.30 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.30 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as dollar rises; South Korean won slides

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell in early trade Monday as the dollar index rose above 102 and hovered near a 17-month high, driven by safe-haven demand. AT 0830 IST, the dollar index was at 102.39, up from 101.88 Friday. The South Korean won was the worst performer among its Asian peers, followed by the Philippine peso and Thai baht.

 

The won fell 0.3% to 1346 per dollar Monday as investors worried about the persistent rise in US Treasury yields. However, South Korea's strong export performance and robust semiconductor demand limited the won's decline. South Korea's exports surged 83.5% year-on-year to a record $120.9 billion in September, while semiconductor exports jumped 263% to a record $60.3 billion, driving a record trade surplus of $49.85 billion. 

 

The Philippine peso was 0.2% down at 62.64 a dollar as higher crude oil prices and rising tensions in the West Asia war weighed on the currency. The Thai baht also fell 0.2% to 33.60 a dollar Monday. 

 

The Japanese yen erased the early gains and was broadly steady against the dollar at 158.04 a dollar after Japan's service sector expanded at a weaker pace in September. The ‌S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 51.3 in September from a five-month high of 52.5 in August, worse than a flash reading of 51.6. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and the Chinese yuan were broadly steady at 31.77 a dollar and 6.70 a dollar respectively Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 5

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.40	96.00
Private-sector bank	96.50	95.90
Private-sector bank	96.40	95.80
Foreign bank	96.25	95.95
Brokerage firm	96.30	96.00
Brokerage firm	96.21	95.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.2925

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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