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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026

 

--SEA Mallick: See Sept-Oct edible oil imports at 3 mln tn to 3.25 mln tn

--CONTEXT: SEA President Angshu Mallick's comments in an interview

--SEA Mallick: See 16.5 mln tn edible oil imports in 2025-26 (Nov-Oct)

--SEA Mallick: See edible oil prices rising going forward

--SEA Mallick: Some small users may shift to soyoil if palm oil prices rise

--SEA Mallick: India palm oil imports may drop by 1 mln tn if prices rise

--SEA Mallick: India palm oil output to rise to 1.2 mln tn in 3 years

--SEA Mallick: See Andhra, Telangana paddy farmers shift to palm cultivation

 

By Shreya Shetty, Krupa Biju, and J. Navya Sruthi

 

MUMBAI – India's total imports of edible oil during September and October are likely to be 3-3.25 million tonnes, and the country is likely to import a total of 16.5 million tonnes during 2025-26 (Nov-Oct), said Angshu Mallick, president of The Solvent Extractors' Association. In an interview with Informist on the sidelines of Tefla's Globoil India 2026, Mallick said that while imports are seen higher during Sept-Oct, this is likely due to the festival season demand, not because of the import duty cut by the government a few days ago. 

 

India's imports of edible oil are likely to remain firm even amid prospects of tightening exports from top producing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, which could raise prices, Mallick said. Strengthening of the El Nino could hit production in both countries, while Indonesia's B50 mandate could lower the volume available for exports. This, along with several other factors, is likely to keep prices of the entire edible oil basket bullish in the next six to twelve months, he said.

 

Though the rise in prices of palm oil could prove costly for India, the country is likely to move on to other sources for its imports, as the oil is crucial for many uses and cannot be replaced at a large scale, he said. 

 

Below are edited excerpts from the interview: 

 

Q. What is your outlook on India's edible oil imports in the near term?

A. September and October, the two months left for this oil year, we expect anything between 3 million to 3.25 million tonnes. The country will import roughly around 16.5 million tonnes in total. 

 

Q. Did imports rise after the government cut the import duty on edible oils?

A. Not exactly, because we don't rush to buy the moment duty is cut. The buying of edible oil depends on the consumption and the festival season. If the festival seasons are around the clock and if domestic availability is not so strong, then imports are higher. As of now, September and October imports will be high, because we are sitting in the festive season. Secondly, this year's crop is not expected to be great, it will depend on how the new crop will be. September and October are big consumption months for India because of Diwali and Dussehra. So, imports will be a little higher.

 

Q. What is your price outlook for edible oils?

A. It looks like prices will be going forward across the edible oil basket in the next six to twelve 12 months. It will be pumped. And everybody is talking about a little bullish trend in the market. That is what so far we have heard from the industry people.

 

Q. Will India switch to other oils from palm oil if prices rise steeply? If so, which other oil?

A. Palm oil is the major imported oil in the country, over 50% of our imports are palm oil. Palm oil is essential because the application of palm oil is something that cannot be substituted by another oil, say in bakery products. They all want palm, they cannot use rice bran oil, even if rice bran oil is cheaper. That is because palm gives that substance to the material; it has that quality. So palm is required, no matter the price.

 

Roadside stalls, dhabas, restaurants, the not-so-conscious street vendors, they go with whichever is cheaper. So, that shift will be 1 million tonnes. So if the prices go up, palm oil may drop by 1 million tonnes. And soya bean will substitute for it. With Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate, they think prices will go up, and yes, that is possible. If that happens, then surely we will see some shrinkage in palm oil consumption in India.

 

Q. Will India begin importing palm oil from countries other than Indonesia and Malaysia?

A. Yes, see now we are not only importing from Indonesia, Malaysia, we are importing from Thailand also. Colombia is also slowly producing more palm oil, and so is Africa. There are possibilities of other countries gearing up to supply palm oil to India. 

 

Secondly, India is producing roughly half a million tonnes of palm oil annually. Going forward, every year we will add to the output because plantations are coming up. In three years' time, we will produce 1.2 million tonnes. Out of the 8 million tonnes that we import, if India produces 1 million tonnes, that is 15% of the imported amount.

 

Q. Will there be new palm plantations coming up, or will output from existing plantations increase?

A. The current plantation is giving us around half a million tonnes of palm oil. New plantations which have been one to three years back, are now not yet giving fruit. But eventually they will, and in three years, all the plantations put down till today will start giving you fruit. By then, production will be around 1.2 million to 1.3 million tonnes. Acreage under these plantations is increasing steadily, so there will be another output increase in the next three to four years. 

 

Q. Will India pivot to growing more palm fruit over other oilseeds such as groundnut and soybean?

A. The National Mission on Edible Oil and the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm are both actively driven by the Ministry of Agriculture. The government is serious about pushing palm plantations because they can see the benefit. On the other hand, we are surplus in paddy. There is no point in growing more paddy in Andhra Pradesh. That land is being converted to palm. The Telangana and Andhra Pradesh governments are pushing farmers to shift from paddy to palm.

 

The only issue with palm is that you don't get immediate money. The government is trying to subsidise farmers or give them some compensation so that they can survive. So we are going to see a higher plantation in palm, which will eat into the acreage of paddy. Big companies have also started investing in palm plantations.

 

Q. Will India be self-sufficient in palm oil?

A. Indian oil seed production is growing at around 4% and consumption is also growing at around 4%. This means this deficit will continue. If farmers in Punjab and Haryana start growing mustard instead of wheat, then there will be a growth in acreage and yield as cultivation in both states is very advanced.

 

See, the government's role is very important. Today, why are farmers growing more wheat and rice? Wheat is being bought by the government at a minimum support price, so farmers are not worried. So if such a programme is in place for mustard, they will be encouraged to grow it as well. 

 

The SEA is saying that the government should procure mustard seeds through NAFED (National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd.) to keep the market up. There aren't any big companies that have large-scale processing capacities. So processing capacity also needs to be added. Because if you only grow mustard seed, what will happen to that if you cannot process it?

Q. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association stressed that India should buy palm oil now before prices go up and supply tightens. What is your view on this?

A. I don't think companies will buy in advance and keep it. We don't do it normally because somebody may say, "stocks are high now, prices are low, you need to buy." But how do you know that? You can buy a little bit of extra, but you can't buy so much that your tanks are full because there is a limited storage capacity. We can't store three months worth of stocks in advance. At the most, 15 days worth of stock, and even then, the ports are full of stocks. 

 

Suppose prices rise in December. But I don't have so much storage capacity in my factory. My factory can store for 10 days, maybe maximise it to 12–15 days, but not three months. So even if I see that it is cheaper now, what will I do with it?  

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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