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Informist, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The erratic monsoon in India this year, coupled with area diversification by farmers, has prompted the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture to cut its estimate of soybean acreage and output and raise the import projection. The estimate of soybean oil (soyoil) production, too, has been revised down, it said in a report dated Sept. 3.

 

According to the latest estimates, the area under soybean cultivation in 2026-27 (Oct. – Sept.) is seen at 11.4 million hectares, production at 9.6 million tonnes, and yield at 0.91 tonnes per hectare. All these figures are lower than its earlier estimates. Imports, on the other hand, are estimated to be higher at 500,000 tonnes.

 

"Irregular rainfall during the planting window disrupted sowing operations and required replanting in parts of Maharashtra, a leading soybean-producing state. Compounding this, farmers increasingly diverted acreage to cotton, drawn by stronger market prices, and to corn, motivated by improved income prospects," the New Delhi office of the agency reasoned.

 

Field observations indicate that expanded corn cultivation, encouraged by more attractive returns and government support prices tied to ethanol blending goals, is a key driver of the acreage decline, particularly in Maharashtra, it added.

 

The report also said the food-use consumption of soybean is forecast to grow by 4%

above the annual estimate of 820,000 tonnes. Rising demand for plant-based products—such as tofu, soymilk, and soy flour—has continued to boost food-grade soybean use. Simultaneously, feed-use demand is expected to rise by 25% over the annual forecast of 900,000 tonnes. "This increase reflects a shift among poultry producers toward greater soybean meal usage, even amid higher prices, as corn supplies are increasingly diverted to ethanol production. Nonetheless, this projected feed-use level remains 18?low feed-use consumption recorded in MY (marketing year) 2025-26".

 

India's exports of soybean are expected to hold steady at 25,000 tonnes in 2026-27. Imports, meanwhile, are forecast at 500,000 tonnes, an increase of more than 100% from the earlier forecast of 200,000 tonnes. "This is contingent on a favourable harvest in key African supplier nations—particularly Benin, Niger, and Togo. These countries serve as India's primary source of non-GMO (genetically modified) soybeans under least developed country (LDC) trade provisions, which grant duty-free access," observed the report.

 

The agency has revised soybean oil production downward by 6% to 1.6 million tonnes from the initial forecast of 1.7 million tonnes. This adjustment reflects the anticipated decline in soybean output relative to last year. Additionally, standing crops in several major producing areas are expected to show reduced pod formation, lowering oil content, as a result of unseasonal and erratic rainfall in July and August. These production challenges are further intensified by lower domestic yields, reduced planted acreage, and farmers continued shift toward alternative crops.

 

For 2026-27, the agency has revised up its projection to 7.5 million tonnes, a 3% increase on year. "This revision comes amid broader shifts in India's edible oil market, driven by fluctuations in palm oil supply and pricing as well as changing global production patterns. Against this backdrop, the market is likely to see a substitution effect, with consumers and processors shifting from palm oil toward soybean oil. This trend is reinforced by currently discounted global soybean oil prices, which make it a more economically competitive alternative to palm oil," it said.

 

The report has estimated imports of soybean oil in 2026-27 at 5.6 million tonnes, 2?ove 2025-26 estimates. Discounted soybean oil from Brazil and Argentina is expected to continue dominating India's edible oil market, with both countries driving a strong influx of supply. India has shifted its traditional sourcing patterns by importing a record 140,000 tonnes of soybean oil from China, a purchase driven by surplus availability in the Chinese market, it said.  End

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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