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Informist, Friday, Sept. 4, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Grain prices extended gains into September, with wheat, corn, soybean, and rice futures hitting 2026 highs amid continued disruptions to Black Sea exports and a tighter supply outlook, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, said in its weekly commodities strategy Thursday.

 

Second-month CBOT wheat futures rose 18.9% on month to 782 cents per bushel on Sept. 1, while corn futures gained 17.7% to 546 cents per bushel. Wheat and corn have emerged as the strongest performers, BMI said.

 

Russia and Ukraine account for around 29% of global wheat exports, while Ukraine contributes roughly 10-11% of global corn exports. Russian wheat exports fell more than 50% year on year in August, as attacks on Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure have disrupted shipments. Alternative routes such as the Danube River are facing vessel queues of around 80 ships, highlighting limited capacity to offset Black Sea disruptions, the report said.

 

BMI expects wheat prices to remain supported, with risks to its 2026 average forecast of 607 cents per bushel pushed to the upside. For corn, it expects second-month CBOT futures to average 458.2 cents per bushel in 2026, with quarterly averages rising to 462 cents in the third quarter and 470 cents in the fourth quarter. US corn ending stocks are forecast at 42 million tonnes, down 7.7% from July, while global stocks are seen at 274.7 million tonnes, the lowest since 2013-14.

 

US corn crop conditions also remain weak, with the good-to-excellent rating at 57% as of Aug. 30, well below 69% a year earlier, while the very poor-to-poor rating rose to 17% from 9% a year ago. BMI expects these developments, along with Black Sea risks, to keep corn prices trending upward through the second half of 2026.

 

Market attention is likely to shift increasingly toward the Southern Hemisphere harvest beginning in October, BMI said. It expects 2026 output to remain below the 2025-26 season's 36 million tonnes. BMI also expects a potentially intensifying El Nino to continue to pose risks to the Australian crop. End

 

Reported by Khushi Singh

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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