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Informist, Friday, Aug. 21, 2026

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has lowered its global food grain production estimate for 2026-27 by 6 million tonnes from July to 2.416 billion tonnes. The cut is largely due to sustained heat that has further deteriorated the production outlook for Europe, with the output projection in the European Union cut for the second month in a row, the council said in its August edition of estimates. However, grain production is still expected to be the second-largest on record, it said.

The projection of global grain consumption has also been revised downwards to 2.44 billion tonnes from 2.45 billion tonnes estimated a month ago, the council said. Consumption is also seen down slightly from the previous year due to a revision in feed use, it said.

The council's outlook on carry-over stocks continues to tighten, with cumulative inventories pegged at 606 million tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from July's forecast. Despite forecasts of uptake being slightly reduced, global closing stocks are expected to fall due to declines in wheat, maize, barley, sorghum, and rye.

The global trade forecast for 2026-27 has been raised by 1 million tonnes from July to 451 million tonnes due to a rise in maize import needs of the European Union, the council said. Amid heightened security risks, deep sea exports from Russia and Ukraine are effectively at a standstill, it said. Shipping suspensions in the region have so far mainly affected wheat flows, with exports since the intensification of war in mid-July estimated to be around 4 million tonnes lower than normal. Market impact has been relatively restrained so far, partly due to muted nearby import demand, but much depends on the length and severity of these disruptions, it said.

WHEAT

For 2026–27, global wheat production is revised downwards to 817 million tonnes from 821 million tonnes seen in July. Consumption of the grain during the year is also forecast lower at 826 million tonnes from 828 million tonnes in the previous month. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been lowered by 4 million tonnes from July to 275 million tonnes.

Estimates for global wheat production for 2025-26 are unchanged from the previous month at 844 million tonnes. Wheat consumption was revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 823 million tonnes, while carryover stocks kept steady at 285 million tonnes.

MAIZE

Maize production in 2026-27 is seen at 1.305 billion tonnes, marginally down from the July projection of 1.306 billion tonnes, the council said. Consumption of the coarse grain is also pegged lower at 1.322 billion tonnes from 1.323 billion tonnes last month, while trade is estimated higher at 208 million tonnes from 205 million tonnes seen in July.

Maize production during 2025-26 is pegged at 1.346 billion tonnes, up by 3 million tonnes from July, the council said. The estimate of consumption during the period was also revised upwards to 1.325 billion tonnes from 1.322 billion tonnes in the previous month. Trade is left unchanged at 203 million tonnes.

RICE

The projection of global production of rice in 2026-27 is revised downwards by 2 million tonnes from the previous month to 541 million tonnes due to a downgrade in output in India. Rice consumption is estimated at 544 million tonnes, steady from the previous month.

Carry-over stocks are forecast to fall by 1 million tonnes from July to 194 million tonnes. Growing food demand will likely underpin expanded global uptake and, as such, stocks could contract for the first time in four years, including a drawdown in Indian inventories, the council said.

The projection for global trade during the same period is unchanged at 62 million tonnes. "Trade in 2027 (Jan-Dec) is seen at a record on strong demand from buyers in Africa and Asia," the council said.

Global rice output in 2025-26 is pegged 1 million tonnes higher at 547 million tonnes. Consumption is unchanged at 538 million tonnes, while carry-over stocks are projected to rise by 1 million to 198 million tonnes. Global trade is unchanged at 60 million tonnes. 

SOYBEAN

Global soybean production in 2026-27 is pegged at a record 441 million tonnes, unchanged from July, the council said. The estimate of soybean consumption during the same period is revised upwards to 447 million tonnes from 445 million tonnes last month. Reflecting expectations for firmer demand for soya derivatives across feed, food, and biofuel sectors, utilisation of the oilseed is seen rising, while combined reserves are likely to tighten, including in key exporters, it said.

Carry-over stocks of the oilseed during the period are estimated at 75 million tonnes, steady from July. Soybean trade estimate for 2026–27 is also left unchanged at 190 million tonnes, though it is seen rising from the previous year due to growing Asian feed demand. "While seen below past highs, recent buying by China has entrenched expectations for a moderate recovery of US shipments," the council said.

For 2025-26, global soybean output is estimated at 432 million tonnes, up by 1 million tonnes from July. Projections for carry-over stocks are raised by 1 million tonnes to 80 million tonnes, while trade is unchanged at 187 million tonnes.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

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