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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Global coffee prices rebounded in the latter part of June on growing concerns of the Super El Nio event, according to the International Coffee Organisation. Above-average rainfall in Brazil's key coffee-producing regions slowed the harvest, affected bean quality, and led to localised crop losses, reducing global coffee supply, causing prices to increase. This stressed the market's sensitivity to supply-side risks. While the organisation's composite indicator had been on a gradual downward trend in recent months, reflecting an increasingly positive supply outlook, the weather factor caused an abrupt shift in market sentiments.

 

The organisation's composite indicator averaged 248.90 cents per pound, down 2.8% from May, according to the June report. Prices continued the downward trend observed in the previous month during the first trading sessions, reaching their lowest level in nearly two years. However, prices rebounded sharply, up 17.4% to a two-month high of 272.39 cents per pound at the end of the month. In mid-May, CONAB released its second crop survey, raising the total production forecast for the 2026-27 crop year by about 500,000 bags to a record 66.70 million bags.

 

A 67% confidence level for a Super El Nio forecast has raised concerns about the potential impact on the 2026-27 coffee harvest, although the effects will vary across regions and seasons, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

 

The prices of the Colombian Milds and Robustas increased by 0.4% and 1.7% from May, averaging 324.60 cents per pound and 169.39 cents per pound in June, respectively. The prices of Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals declined by 2.4% and 7.4%, to 307.83 cents per pound and 272.01 cents per pound, respectively.

 

The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential increased from 8.03 cents to 16.77 cents per pound between May and June. The arbitrage between the London and New York futures markets contracted by 13.3% to 100.86 cents per pound in June, emphasising a sharp 13.3% drop in US-certified Arabica stocks falling to 410,000 bags, the lowest level since February 2024, combined with a 4.8% increase in London-certified Robusta stocks. This inventory shift caused the price paths of the New York Arabica and London Robusta futures contracts to converge.

 

Global exports of all forms of coffee fell by 3.2% on year to 12.38 million bags in May. The dynamics across the four regions were mixed. Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania rose 0.4% on year to 4.32 million bags. Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 24.1% to 1.63 million bags. South America's exports increased by 4.3% on year to 4.29 million bags in May. From the Caribbean, Mexico & Central America, exports of all forms of coffee fell by 3.8% on year to 2.14 million bags in May.

 

Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 3.6% on year to 1.51 million bags in May. Vietnam, Brazil and India were the largest exporters of soluble coffee in May. Both Vietnam and Brazil shipped 360,000 bags, while India dispatched 300,000 bags. Exports of roasted beans were up 10.8% on year in May, reaching 70,000 bags, the report said. End

 

US$1 = INR 96.20

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ritwika Dutta

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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