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Informist, Saturday, Jul. 11, 2026

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has projected the global wheat supply for 2026-27 at 1.09 billion tonnes, down from 1.10 billion tonnes pegged in June. Supplies are seen falling due to reduced beginning stocks in several countries and lower production. The department has lowered its estimates for production and ending stock but raised its estimates for consumption and trade, the USDA said in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published in July. 

Global wheat production is pegged at 819.97 million tonnes in the July report, down from 820.06 million tonnes seen in June, the department said. Globally, wheat consumption demand in 2026-27 is projected to increase by 1.6 million tonnes to 826.16 million tonnes, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use in India, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia.

World wheat trade is pegged higher at 213.05 million tonnes from 211.95 million tonnes in June as increased exports from Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine are expected to more than offset the reduced exports from Canada. The department has estimated ending stocks for 2026-27 to fall by 2.6 million tonnes to 272.84 million tonnes, primarily due to reductions in the US, India, Argentina, and Canada.

For India, the department has projected wheat output at 121 million tonnes in 2026-27, unchanged from June's view. However, it has raised the forecast for domestic consumption by 30,000 tonnes to 111.4 million tonnes, and ending stocks are seen 50,000 tonnes lower at 29.5 million tonnes from June.

RICE 

The 2026-27 global rice outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, slightly reduced trade, and lower stocks. Despite lower production, supplies increase in July on larger beginning stocks, primarily in India, China, and Burma, the USDA said. 

Global rice supply in 2026-27 is projected at 735.38 million tonnes, up from 733.98 million tonnes forecast in June. The department estimates ending stocks at 192.58 million tonnes, down from 192.81 million tonnes pegged in June. "India's supplies are substantial, with the Food Corp. of India expected to procure more rice than required for its food distribution programs in 2026 despite record ending stocks," the report said. 

Global rice consumption and residual use are projected at a record 542.8 million tonnes, up from 541.2 million tonnes in June, largely due to increased demand expected in China. World trade is seen slightly down at 62.8 million tonnes from 63.0 million tonnes in June due to lower exports from Cambodia. Projected 2026-27 world ending stocks are slightly lower at 192.6 million tonnes from 192.81 million tonnes pegged in June, due to reductions for China and the US.

For India, the department has forecast rice production in 2026–27 at 150.0 million tonnes, unchanged from its June estimate. The estimates for the country's rice consumption are also left unchanged at 128.0 million tonnes, while ending stocks are raised by 1 million tonnes to 51 million tonnes.  End

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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