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Informist, Saturday, Jul. 11, 2026

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has projected global cotton production for 2026-27 (Aug-Jul) at 117.26 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds or nearly 218 kilograms), up a little more than 1% from 116.04 million bales it had projected a month earlier. The upward projection is based on expected bigger crops in Brazil, the US, Turkey, and Central Asia, it said in the July edition of its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. 

World cotton consumption in 2026-27 is projected to rise marginally to 121.95 million bales from 121.76 million bales projected last month. Consumption figures have been raised as an increase in Vietnam mill use is estimated to be slightly offset by a small reduction for Azerbaijan, it said.

The department has marginally raised its estimate for global cotton exports for 2026-27 to 43.34 million bales from 43.32 million bales the previous month. However, the projected import is unchanged at 43.34 million bales.

The agency has cut its projection of world cotton beginning stocks to 75.72 million bales from the earlier estimate of 76.63 million bales. However, it has raised the projected ending stocks to 71.22 million bales from 71.13 million bales projected in June.

The report has raised the cotton world supply projection for 2026-27 to 192.98 million bales from 192.67 million bales it had put forth a month ago. The USDA has also revised its estimates for cotton dynamics for 2025-26.

"For 2025/26, world production is lowered by 750,000 bales following a like reduction for Brazil. Global consumption is reduced modestly to 120.0 million bales as a reduction for Pakistan more than offsets an increase for Vietnam, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are raised 1 percent, primarily on higher shipments by Brazil, and small changes for a few other countries. Ending stocks are reduced by about 900,000 bales, mostly due to the smaller Brazilian crop, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 63.1 percent," it said.

The agency has projected India's cotton production during 2026–27 at 24.0 million bales, unchanged from the projection in June. The estimate for cotton consumption is also unchanged at 26.00 million bales. It has also kept its projection of India's cotton export unchanged at 1.50 million bales.

The report also estimates India's cotton imports in 2026-27 to be unchanged at 2.50 million bales. However, the opening stocks in India for 2026-27 are now projected at 11.42 million bales, up from 11.12 million bales seen in June, while closing stocks are pegged at 10.42 million bales, up from 10.12 million bales forecast last month.  End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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