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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 8, 2026

 

By Shweta

 

NEW DELHI – India's WPI inflation is expected to moderate only slightly in June as persistently high food prices amid a rain shortfall and geopolitical tensions kept inflation up, according to economists. WPI inflation is expected to ease to 9.3% in June from 9.68% in May, according to an Informist Poll of 11 economists. May was the first month in which the commerce ministry released the new WPI series, with 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year.

 

Economists expect WPI inflation for June to range from 8.1% to 10.5%, based on the new series. The commerce ministry has so far released back data under the new series starting from April 2023. WPI inflation stood at (-)0.4% in June last year under the new series. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for June at 1200 IST Tuesday.

 

Wholesale prices remained under pressure last month, largely because of persistently high food inflation. "We believe fuel price inflation has likely peaked, although geopolitical developments may continue to keep energy prices elevated in the near term," Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities, said in a note.

 

Economists at Nirmal Bang expect food inflation to rise to 4.64% in June from 4.49% in May, driven by higher vegetable prices. Wholesale vegetable prices rose on month in June. Tomato prices increased 18.8% on month, according to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs. Onion prices rose 9% on month and potato prices rose 3.8%. Wholesale prices of edible oils rose more than 1% on month. Prices of pulses increased 0.5%.

 

"Adequate buffer stocks, comfortable reservoir levels, expanding irrigation coverage, and improved drought-resistant crop varieties should help contain food inflation despite risks to vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds," John said. Kharif sowing is expected to improve with a recovery in monsoon rainfall in July, she added.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast the southwest monsoon rainfall to be below normal at 90% of the long-period average. As of Friday, the average rainfall so far during the season, which ordinarily extends from June to September, was 15?low normal at 212.1 millimetres.

 

Core WPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is seen at 7.27% in June, according to the poll.

 

WPI inflation is expected to remain well above its retail counterpart in June. According to a separate Informist Poll, CPI inflation is expected to have risen to 4.3% in June from 3.93% in May. 

 

The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in June, in ascending order of the estimates:

 

ORGANISATION	WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE
ICRA	8.1%
STCI Primary Dealer	8.8%
Standard Chartered	9.1%
ICICI Bank	9.13%
Sunidhi Securities	9.17%
India Ratings	9.3%
YES Bank	9.36%
ICICI Securities  Primary Dealership	9.5%
State Bank of India	9.8%
Nirmal Bang Equities	9.95%
Pantheon  Macroeconomics	10.5%

 

End

 

With inputs from Pratiksha

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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