More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jul. 10, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's high against the dollar Friday as banks actively bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing a further rise in crude oil prices after the US' latest strikes on Iran, dealers said. However, foreign fund inflows into Indian markets and into Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits supported the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"The only reason the rupee is holding up right now is because of inflows into bonds and FCNR (B) deposits. If it weren't for that, the strike in West Asia and the collapsing peace deal would have already pushed it down towards 96 (against the dollar)," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

After hitting a high of 95.2200 per dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 95.3250 per dollar on Friday, slightly up from 95.3875 per dollar on Thursday. The Indian unit moved within a narrow 19-paise range during the day. Asian currencies rose marginally against the dollar Friday, with the Thai baht and Singapore dollar being the best performers. 

 

The Indian unit was volatile this week as the US launched a series of attacks on Iran on Wednesday. The escalation shattered the US-Iran ceasefire agreement signed last month and sent crude oil prices to a three-week high near $80 a barrel. However, crude retreated after the US shrugged off the idea of a return to full-scale war and said that negotiations were going on with Iran. The US strikes were triggered as Iran hit vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, cementing its control over the key waterway. 

 

The rupee started the day on a positive note as crude oil prices eased from Thursday's high of $79.25 per barrel, after a US official said Friday that the US has deliberately paused strikes to avoid escalation and allow diplomacy to work. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $76.14 a barrel, down from $76.30 Thursday, and $78.02 Wednesday. 
 

The rupee received crucial support during the day as banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian government bonds and Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, dealers said. Dealers estimate that the FCNR(B) deposit scheme has mobilised $8 billion-$10 billion so far.

 

The RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh FCNR(B) deposits is expected to draw around $43 billion in inflows, according to the median of an Informist Poll. "FCNR deposits are gaining good traction. More than 50% of the money will probably hit this month itself," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Foreign fund inflows come in the backdrop of the RBI and the government announcing a slew of measures to make Indian markets more attractive for investment. Foreign portfolio investors net invested $2.35 billion in the domestic market over just eight days in July, compared with $2.69 billion for the entire month of June. FPIs net sold securities worth $21.8 billion in the three months through May.

 

FPIs net purchased gilts worth INR 381.78 million through the Fully Accessible Route this month. They also turned net buyers of domestic equities so far in July, purchasing around $1.75 billion and ending their four-month selling spree. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex jumped 1% and 1.1%, respectively, on Friday, further boosting the rupee. 

 

However, banks bought dollars for importers, which erased gains in the rupee during the day and hit a low of 95.4175 a dollar Friday. "Volumes were not very high today. But most of the selling in the market was countered by importers," the dealer said.

 

The dollar index traded lower for the third consecutive day Friday as a pause in attacks in West Asia and ongoing negotiations between both warring countries allowed a mild appetite for risk, supporting the Indian unit. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was 100.82 against 100.93 Thursday. The index hit a one-week low of 100.59 during the day.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3250	95.2600	95.2200	95.4175	95.3875
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.62	268.70	269.33	266.62	270.17

 

FORWARDS 

The dollar-rupee forward premiums were lower Friday as banks sold forward dollars for expected foreign fund inflows into Indian government bonds and Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a low of 266.62 paise Friday.

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid the latest escalation in the war in West Asia, they said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.54% from 4.56% on Thursday, supporting the forward premiums. US yields fell as crude oil prices declined around 2%, cooling inflation fears and curbing expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, down from 2.83% at Thursday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.62 paise, against 270.17 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices as market participants focus on negotiations between the US and Iran, dealers said. They will also track the dollar index as investors shift their focus to US CPI inflation data due next week, which will determine the dollar's further direction.

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Dealers said exporters are waiting for the rupee to hit 95.75 per dollar before stepping in to sell dollars. 

 

Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong resistance for the Indian currency at 95.20 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00–95.50 against the dollar on Monday.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr falls as US-Iran war cools down; Japanese yen up

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3412	1.3452	1.3405	1.3406
EUR/USD	1.1433	1.1461	1.1429	1.1429
NZD/USD	0.5768	0.5793	0.5755	0.5748
AUD/USD	0.6944	0.6970	0.6934	0.6934
USD/JPY	161.6130	162.4400	161.2890	162.3820
USD/CAD	1.4166	1.4172	1.4137	1.4170
EUR/JPY	184.7770	185.7000	184.7370	185.5900
CHF/USD	1.2404	1.2452	1.2390	1.2388
EUR/CHF	0.9217	0.9226	0.9203	0.9221

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index traded lower for the third consecutive day Friday. The US officials' signal that they were not interested in resuming a full-scale war and that negotiations were ongoing with Iran allowed a mild appetite for risk and weighed on the safe-haven dollar. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was 100.82 against 100.93 Thursday. 

 

At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six peers, was at 100.82, down from 100.93 Thursday. The index also hit a one-week low of 100.59 Friday. A US official said Friday that the US has paused deliberately to avoid escalation and let diplomacy work. 

 

Brent crude oil prices are slowly retreating but is still 7% higher from levels at the start of the week as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plunged after the US and Iran traded deadly strikes till late Thursday. This hurt currencies like the euro and the Japanese yen amid the exposure of their economies to higher energy prices. 

 

The euro rose marginally by 0.2% to $1.144 from $1.143 Thursday as bets for rate hikes in the eurozone have risen again since the US and Iran started blows in West Asia. Germany's annual inflation was at 2.3%, a slight slowdown from 2.6% in May. Germany is the largest bloc in eurozone. The pound sterling rose 0.4% to $1.34 from $1.33 in the previous session. 

 

The Japanese yen rose sharply by 0.6% to 161.53 a dollar from 162.45 Thursday after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama unveiled a plan to encourage pension funds to ramp up investment in domestic assets, in an attempt to bring back in billions of dollars allocated in foreign markets. The yen appreciated after the announcement, adding pressure on the greenback.

 

The Canadian dollar rose 0.2% to 1.41 a dollar from 1.42 Thursday. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc rose 0.4?ch Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Premiums fall as banks sell dollars for likely FX inflows

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3550	95.2600	95.2300	95.4100	95.3875
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.91	268.70	269.33	266.62	270.17

 

MUMBAI – The dollar-rupee forward premiums were lower Friday as banks sold forward dollars for expected foreign fund inflows into Indian government bonds and Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, dealers said.

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid the latest escalation in the US-Iran war, they said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a high of 2.82% or 269.33 paise Friday. The Indian unit had erased gains booked in early trade and rose to 95.4100 a dollar Friday. "Volumes are not very high today. Whatever inflows were there in the morning, was mostly absorbed by buying (dollar)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

At 1330 IST, the 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.53% from 4.56% Thursday, which supported the premium forwards. US yields fell as traders crude oil prices fell around 2%, which cooled inflation fears and curbed expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. US jobless claims slipped to 215,000 in the week through Jul. 4 from an upwardly revised 217,000 reported a week earlier. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, slightly lower than Thursday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.91 paise, against 270.17 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Cuts some gain on importers' demand; FX inflows, fall in oil aid

 

	AT 1344 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3100	95.2600	95.2300	95.3250	95.3875

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains Friday as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared further rise in crude oil prices after a fragile ceasefire between both countries was shattered, which weighed on the Indian currency, they said. Dealers said the dollar demand from importers could push the rupee to around 95.50 a dollar Friday.

 

However, the rupee inched up against the dollar as banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into government bonds and Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, dealers said. They see $8 billion-$10 billion inflows mobilised so far from FCNR(B) deposits scheme. 

 

Foreigners invested a total of $2.35 billion in just nine days of July in the domestic market, compared with $2.69 billion for June. They had sold $21.8 billion in the three months through May. Foreign fund inflows started coming in after the RBI issued a slew of measures to make Indian markets attractive for investment.

 

FPIs net purchased gilts worth INR 250 million through the Fully Accessible Route Friday, data from Clearing Corp. of India showed as of 1149 IST. They also turned net buyer in domestic equities so far in July, purchasing around $1.75 billion. At 1200 IST, the Nifty and the Sensex rose nearly 1% from their previous close.

 

"The overall sentiment for the rupee is strong only because of inflows in bonds and FCNR B) deposits. Otherwise, given the uncertainty in the peace deal and war in West Asia now, the rupee should have moved towards 96.00 (a dollar)," a dealer at public sector bank said. 

 

Brent crude oil prices also fell slightly after US officials said negotiations are going on with Iran and signalled commitment to reach a peace deal, which supported the rupee. The mediating countries also attempted to get diplomacy back on track after two days of deadly strikes between the US and Iran. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $75.99 a barrel, down from $76.30 Thursday and $78.02 Wednesday.  

 

For rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.20-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Rises as oil subsides amid US-Iran peace talks, dlr inflows aid

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2875	95.2600	95.2300	95.3250	95.3875

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar, tracking gains of Asian currencies, as crude oil prices subsided from Thursday's high of $79.25 a barrel after US officials signalled they were not interested in resuming a full-scale war and that negotiations are ongoing with Iran. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $76.44 a barrel, slightly up from $76.30 Thursday, but down from $78.02 Wednesday. 

 

The dollar index fell slightly Friday as investors continued to assess the implications of the renewed strike in West Asia on inflation. Markets continue to price in at least one US Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was 100.71 from 100.93 Thursday. 

 

Banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. FPIs have been investing heavily in Indian bonds after the government exempted foreign investors from paying capital gains tax on investment in bonds and also exempted withholding tax on interest on such investments.  

 

Market participants expect the central bank's swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits to draw the majority of foreign inflows. According to the median of a separate Informist Poll, the RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh FCNR(B) deposits is expected to draw around $43 billion in inflows. Dealers said around $8 billion has been mobilised so far in FCNR(B) deposits. 

 

Dealers also expect banks to actively buy dollars on behalf of importers during the day, amid uncertainty over the war in West Asia, which will weigh on the Indian unit. For rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.20-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.60	95.10
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.25
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.45	95.10
Foreign bank	95.60	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

---

 India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as crude retreats on US, Iran peace talks

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies inched up against the dollar in early trade Friday as crude oil prices retreated from their Thursday high of $79.25 a barrel after US officials said negotiations are ongoing with Iran, and that they are still committed to finding a way to reach a peace deal. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $76.34 a barrel, slightly up from $76.30 Thursday, but down from $78.02 Wednesday.

 

A US official said the US military has not conducted any strikes on Iran recently, despite Iranian media reporting explosions across the southern region, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility. The latest flare-ups between the two countries is the heaviest bombardment they have carried out since reaching a cease-fire agreement in June. 

 

The dollar index fell slightly, but hovered near 101 Friday as investors continued to assess the implications of the renewed strike in West Asia on inflation. Markets continue to price in at least one US Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2026. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was 100.78 from $100.93 Thursday. 

 

Meanwhile, the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 215,000 in the week through July 4, lower than the upwardly revised 217,000 reported a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, which supported the dollar index.

 

The South Korean won was down sharply against the dollar for the second consecutive day Friday. The won fell 0.4% to 1512.78 a dollar from 1506.48 Thursday as escalation in West Asia continued to weigh on the currency. But pressure on the currency was slightly offset as foreign investors remained net buyers of local stocks for the second straight trading session, ending their selling spree of 13 consecutive sessions.  

 

The Taiwan dollar was up marginally at 32.07 a dollar Friday as the country outperformed Asian peers on exports in June. Taiwan's exports rose 40.3% on year, driven by AI-related demand for advanced semiconductors. But the rise in June moderated from the 51.7% rise in May. 

 

The Thai baht rose for the second consecutive day and was at 33.32 a dollar from 33.37 Thursday, recovering from a one-year low Wednesday. The Philippine peso rose slightly to 61.52 a dollar from 61.59 Thursday. The Chinese yuan was also up slightly at 6.78 a dollar Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.3250

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.