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Informist, Friday, Jul. 10, 2026

MUMBAI – El Nino has strengthened over the past month and is likely to continue doing so for the rest of the year, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report on Thursday. The probability of a very strong El Nino is expected to increase in the coming months, with an 81% chance of a very strong event during Oct-Dec, the climate centre said. This would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950, it said.

For a very strong El Nino, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Index should show a maximum anomaly of more than 2 degrees Celsius. A stronger El Nino does not always ensure a stronger impact, the climate centre said. The strength of the event can only make certain impacts more likely, it explained. 

A large area of sea surface temperature anomalies in the past month were in excess of 1 degree Celsius across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, signalling the strengthening of El Nino conditions. The latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was 1.2 degrees Celsius, which is above the El Nino threshold of 0.5 degree Celsius, the climate centre said.  

The equatorial subsurface temperature index increased as a recent downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Nino, the centre said. 

Kelvin waves are large-scale ocean or atmospheric waves that are trapped along the equator or coastal boundaries. By balancing the Earth's Coriolis force with these physical boundaries, they propagate in a single direction without changing shape. They play a massive role in global climate phenomena, particularly El Nino.

Forecasts of the US climate centre, along with several other international climate models, suggest that El Nino will intensify through 2026. Alongside these forecasts, a strong coupling of the atmospheric and ocean circulations across the Pacific Ocean contributes to very high confidence that El Nino will continue through early 2027, the climate centre said. There is a 97% chance that the El Nino event will last through early Northern Hemisphere spring 2027, which spans from March to May, the centre said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

India is likely to have below-normal rainfall in July as well, mainly due to persisting El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department said. In June, rainfall was nearly 40% below normal. Although El Nino conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the southwest monsoon season ending September, some global models indicate the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in the second half of the season, or Aug-Sept, the Indian weather department said. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could abate the impact of an El Nino event. However, the impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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