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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 9, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as banks sold dollars actively for foreign portfolio investors and exporters, dealers said. They said the Reserve Bank of India also sold dollars to support the rupee, when global factors were weighing heavy. However, importers' heavy demand for dollars kept the Indian unit from rising further, they said. 

 

"The underlying sentiment for the rupee remains positive, what we saw yesterday was a knee-jerk reaction to escalation in West Asia... Exporters were on the sidelines, but they came in at 95.50 (a dollar), along with FPIs," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.3875 per dollar Thursday, 0.2% higher than its previous close. The rupee moved within a narrow range of 29 paise during the day. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with the Chinese yuan being the best performer and the South Korean won faring the worst. 

 

The Indian unit opened slightly higher against the dollar on Thursday as oil prices remained below $80 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining open despite a series of attacks by the US on Iran late Wednesday. Iranian media reported explosions in several cities, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Sirik. US President Donald Trump warned Iran of more strikes if its disrupts vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, even as he shrugged off the idea of a full-scale war. 

 

"The US is not going for a full-scale attack. Looks like they just want to keep the Strait open and crude won't rise much till oil flows through it, so the upside (dollar-rupee) was limited," the dealer said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery was at $78.64 a barrel, up from $78.02 Wednesday.

 

Banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, which supported the Indian unit. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers in June and so far in July after being net sellers for three months till May. FPIs net bought $1.36 billion in Indian markets in just a week in July and $2.69 billion in June, compared with net sales of $25 billion in the three months through May. The benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex closed 0.3% higher each on Thursday. 

 

Meanwhile, investors expect foreign fund inflows ahead of a slew of initial public offerings lined up for July. Among the major IPOs lined up are SBI Funds Management Ltd., which is set to launch its initial public offering on Jul. 14, with the issue solely an offer for sale of up to 203.7 million shares. Reliance Jio platform is also preparing for an initial public offering comprising a fresh issue of 270 million shares with a face value of INR 10 each.  

 

"Today, the market was calm and stable. The selling (dollar) was seen mixed by equities, the RBI, and some were fix-related, which took the dollar-rupee to a high of 95.28 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee was also supported by the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through state-owned banks at multiple levels. The RBI was seen selling dollars mainly at 95.40 a dollar, they said. Exporters also sold the dollar at around 95.50 a dollar, which boosted the rupee further. 

 

However, the rise of the rupee was limited as banks actively bought dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. The strong dollar demand took the rupee to a low of 95.5700 a dollar Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3875	95.5500	95.2825	95.5700	95.5550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	270.17	270.67	272.86	268.58	272.59

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as some dealers speculated that the RBI might have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold dollars in the spot market at around 95.40 a dollar, they said. The one-month dollar rupee forward premium fell sharply to 2.82% Thursday. 

 

However, banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a further rise in dollar-rupee premium levels amid uncertainty in West Asia, limiting the fall in forward premiums, they said. 

 

A few dealers said banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, which put pressure on premium forwards. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.832%, slightly lower than 2.837% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 270.17 paise, slightly lower than 272.59 paise at close Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will track the movement in crude oil prices as market participants focus on renewed tensions between the US and Iran, dealers said. They will also track the dollar index amid evolving expectations of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve later this year.

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing rupee depreciation amid uncertainty about the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Dealers expect exporters to step in actively at 95.80 a dollar.

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from a slew of measures announced by the RBI in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.25–95.55 against the dollar on Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr edges lower as mkt assesses minutes of Fed meet

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3412	1.3431	1.3387	1.3391
EUR/USD	1.1426	1.1450	1.1417	1.1417
NZD/USD	0.5733	0.5739	0.5701	0.5699
AUD/USD	0.6934	0.6946	0.6925	0.6928
USD/JPY	162.4120	162.6110	162.2500	162.5510
USD/CAD	1.4186	1.4190	1.4153	1.4173
EUR/JPY	185.5790	185.7876	185.4000	185.5900
CHF/USD	1.2384	1.2418	1.2362	1.2361
EUR/CHF	0.9226	0.9236	0.9217	0.9233

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index edged lower as market participants weighed the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting in June and monitored the escalation in geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

 

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting in June showed policymakers were split on the future of interest rates, with officials offering competing cases for hikes or cuts. While the central bank held rates steady at the meeting, the summary indicated that policymakers were in no rush to ease monetary policy further.

 

Meanwhile, a crack appeared in the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The US military launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran late Wednesday, hours after US President Donald Trump said the three-week-old ceasefire between the two countries was "over." Iranian media reported explosions in several cities, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, and Sirik. However, Brent crude oil prices fell slightly to $77.28 a barrel from $78.02 Wednesday as Trump shrugged off the idea of full-scale return to war and as the Strait of Hormuz remained open for global trade. 

 

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.142 from $1.139 against the dollar as expectations that the European Central Bank could deliver another interest rate rise in September rose amid a rise in crude oil prices.

 

The pound sterling was at a three-week high against the dollar at $1.34 as renewed US-Iran tensions boosted expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates. 

 

The Japanese yen rose marginally to 162.44 a dollar as it attempted to recover from 40-year lows, while Japanese authorities remained on alert to support the currency against excessive moves. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc rose 0.3?ch against the dollar Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as banks actively buy fwd dlrs for importers

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3325	95.5500	95.2825	95.5700	95.5550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	268.58	270.67	272.86	268.58	272.59

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Thursday as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further fall in dollar-rupee premium levels amid rising uncertainty in West Asia, dealers said. "The buying was huge today, which was countered by dollar selling, which was even bigger," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, gains in dollar-rupee forward premiums were limited as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery in the short term to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a low of 268.57 paise Thursday. "There were huge inflows seen from public sector banks today, it may be likely for RBI. They were seen protecting 95.40 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

A few dealers said banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, which limited the rise in premium forwards. The rupee hit a high of 95.2825 a dollar in the spot market Thursday.   

 

At 1347 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.84%, up from 2.83% Wednesday. But, on an absolute basis, the premium was 270.66 paise, slightly lower than 272.59 paise at close Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Up on FX inflow, speculation of RBI dlr sales; W Asia war weighs

 

	AT 1250 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3925	95.5500	95.3300	95.5700	95.5550

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Thursday as banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows after the Reserve Bank of India and government issued a slew of measures to attract inflows, which supported the rupee despite rising tension in West Asia, dealers said. 

 

The dealers also speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars, boosting the rupee at a time when global factors weigh on it. "We can see the RBI is selling at multiple levels where buying is heavy. It sold at around 95.38-95.40 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. India's foreign exchange reserves as of Jun. 26 fell by $5.65 billion on week to $666.93 billion, the lowest level since April 2025.

 

Meanwhile, investors also expect foreign fund inflows ahead of a slew of initial public offerings lined up for July. Among the major IPOs are SBI Funds Management Ltd. which is set to launch its initial public offering on Jul. 14, with the issue solely an offer for sale of up to 203.7 million shares. Reliance Jio platform is also preparing for an initial public offering comprising a fresh issue of 270 million shares with a face value of INR 10 each.  

However, the appreciation of the rupee was limited as banks actively bought dollars for importers, who fear a further rise in crude oil prices. Dealers expect the RBI's further intervention if the rupee comes under extreme pressure due to dollar buying and nears the 95.80-per-dollar level.

 

The rupee was under pressure after the US launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military attacked Iran late Wednesday, hours after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the two countries was "over."  

 

Dealers said the sentiment in the market was not completely negative as the Strait of Hormuz was open and Brent crude oil prices also retreated slightly, although it remained sharply higher from levels at the start of the week. Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $77.73 a barrel, down from $78.02 Wednesday, but high from $74.16 Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.30-95.60. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1135 IST, the rupee was at 95.3675 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.5550. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.25	95.15
Public-sector bank	95.85	95.65	95.35	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.55	95.25	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.65	95.30	95.10
Foreign bank	95.70	95.50	95.30	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.55	95.16	94.95
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.60	95.10	94.90

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Slightly up as oil remains intact despite escalation in W Asia

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4925	95.5500	95.4775	95.5700	95.5550

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched up against the dollar Thursday as oil prices remained below $80 a barrel, after spiking when the US launched a series of attacks on Iran late Wednesday. Iran reported explosions in several cities, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Sirik. US President Donald Trump warned Iran of more strikes if they disrupt vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, even as he shrugged off the idea of full-scale war. 

"Despite the escalation in West Asia, the Strait is still open and Brent has also not crossed $80 (a barrel)... I think upside (dollar-rupee) should be limited," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Some dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars in the non-deliverable forward market, which is reflected in the spot market as well. "Looks like they are active in NDFs, pressure is felt here also," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

However, dealers expect banks to actively buy dollars for importers, who fear a further rise in crude oil prices and depreciation of the rupee, which could push the rupee towards 95.80 a dollar. Dealers expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure and nears the 95.80-per-dollar level.   

 

However, foreign portfolio investors are also likely to sell dollars. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.30-95.75. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.75 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.45
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.40
Foreign bank	95.80	95.35
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.40
Brokerage firm	95.60	95.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil rises after US strikes on Iran

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell slightly on Thursday as oil neared $80 a barrel amid intensified US strikes on Iran late Wednesday. The US launched more strikes against Iran "to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command said Wednesday. Iranian media reported explosions in several cities, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.

 

Crude oil prices rose nearly 10% from $71.99 a barrel at the start of the week, as recent strikes could disrupt global oil supplies again, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the centre of the conflict. At 0730 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery rose to $78.62 a barrel, up from $78.02 Wednesday and $74.16 Tuesday. Most Asian currencies are vulnerable to higher oil prices because they import most of their oil. 

 

The dollar index hovered around 101 on Thursday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets

 

The South Korean won rose slightly to 1507.14 a dollar from 1515.57 Wednesday after it gained 0.7% in the last two consecutive sessions as policymakers said that recent won weakness should be temporary. 

 

The Philippine peso fell marginally for the second consecutive day to 61.55 a dollar Thursday. The Thai baht fell by 0.2% to 33.50 a dollar. The Chinese yuan was steady against the dollar. 

 

The Taiwan dollar rose against the dollar Thursday amid policy support from the central bank. The Taiwan dollar was at 32.07 a US dollar from 32.11 Wednesday. The Taiwan central bank has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to smooth volatility.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.3875

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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