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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 9, 2026

 

MUMBAI – HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Thursday lowered its gold price forecast for 2026 and 2027, but has retained its view for the subsequent two years. The global brokerage cut its average price forecast for 2026 by $304 to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864, citing a steeper-than-expected decline in gold prices so far this year and the hawkish shift by the US Federal Reserve.

 

For 2027, gold prices are seen to average at $4,925 per ounce, down $75 from $5,000 per ounce. "We leave our 2028 and 2029 average price forecasts unchanged at $5,200/oz and $5,300/oz, respectively. We see a 2027 year-end price of $5,025/oz," HSBC said in a report on gold. The gold price at the end of 2026 is expected to be $4,750 per ounce. 

 

Gold prices had hit a record high of $5,450 per ounce on Jan. 30 but have since retreated to a low of $3,942 per ounce on Jun. 30 amid hawkish signals from US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. HSBC said it "retains a positive posture" amid structural fiscal and geopolitical risks, but has lowered its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 amid a firm dollar. 

 

On physical demand, HSBC expects institutional demand for large bars to remain robust, partly due to regulatory changes that allow greater bullion purchases by the financial sector in India and China. However, demand for jewellery and coins is expected to remain weak till 2027. 

 

HSBC said selling, notably in exchange-traded funds, may partially reverse as factors aiding gold come into play, including gold's role as a safe haven and in portfolio diversification. Rising fiscal deficits globally and their impact on the sovereign debt market can also sustain higher gold prices.

 

Although central banks moderated gold purchases last year and in the first half of this year, HSBC expects stronger demand later in the year, driven by long-term diversification policies. The firm said that any trade frictions would be bullish for gold, as a retreat in oil prices had relieved pressure on banks to sell gold.

 

Despite production challenges, HSBC noted that high gold prices will certainly increase mine output till 2027 and probably till 2028. The firm has raised its mine supply forecast by 51 tonnes to 3,876 tonnes in 2026 and retained its 2027 view at 3,930 tonnes. End

 

US$1 = INR 95.39

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Prateem Rohaenkar

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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