Informist Poll
India June CPI inflation seen rising above RBI's 4% target
This story was originally published at 15:50 IST on 9 July 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – India's headline inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, likely rose to an 18-month high in June, driven by higher food prices amid weak monsoon and El Nino conditions, economists said. CPI inflation is seen rising to 4.3% in June from 3.93% in May, according to the median of estimates in an Informist Poll of 11 economists.
If inflation rises to 4.3% in June, it would be the first time in 17 months that retail inflation has exceeded the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. CPI inflation was 2.31% in June last year, based on the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year. The statistics ministry will release inflation data for June at 1600 IST Monday.
At 4.3%, the average CPI inflation for the June quarter would be 3.9%, below the RBI's projection of 4.2% for the quarter. Headline inflation in June will need to rise to 5.1-5.3% to be in line with the RBI's forecast, given the April and May prints. The June CPI inflation data will be the last before the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meets next in August.
Retail food inflation in June is expected to be higher than 4.78% in May. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, retail prices of tomatoes rose 16.7% on month in June, prices of potatoes and onions rose 4.5% and 7.8%, respectively. Edible oil prices rose over 1% sequentially in June. "The volatility in prices of vegetables continues to be visible with sharp double-digit inflation of tomato in June, albeit at a slower pace," Jahnavi Prabhakar, economist at Bank of Baroda, said in a note.
According to Prabhakar, rainfall distribution remains key, along with the growing risk of El Nino, which could adversely affect acreage and should be monitored closely. The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on Thursday. As of Wednesday, the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country has been 15?low the long-period average at 195.5 millimetres. The India Meteorological Department has forecast southwest monsoon (Jun-Sept) rainfall to be below normal at 90% of the long-period average.
Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is seen inching up to 3.9% in June from 3.8% in May, according to the poll.
The following is a summary of the poll on CPI inflation in June, in ascending order:
| Organisation | CPI Inflation Estimate |
| YES Bank | 3.9% |
| Pantheon Macroeconomics | 4.0% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
4.2% |
| ICICI Bank | 4.21% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 4.27% |
| HDFC Bank | 4.3% |
| Bank of Baroda | 4.3% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 4.3% |
| IDFC FIRST Bank | 4.4% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
4.5% |
| QuantEco Research | 4.5% |
End
With inputs from Priyasmita Dutta, Pratiksha, and Afra Abubacker
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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