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Informist, Monday, Jul. 6, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to an over three-week low against the dollar on Monday as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further fall of the Indian unit, dealers said. The rally in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian currency. However, the Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales through state-owned banks limited sharp depreciation of the rupee, they said. 

 

"There was resistance at 95.35 (a dollar), it broke that level and the next resistance was 95.45, that was also broken. But PSU banks sold dollars, keeping the rupee from falling to 95.50. Looks like RBI sold on their behalf. Selling was not sudden, it was gradual, so we can't really call it an intervention," a dealer at a priavte sector bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.3950 a dollar, 0.2% lower than the previous close. The Indian unit moved in a range of 27 paise during the day. It also tracked Asian currencies, which fell 0.1-0.5% Monday, with the Thai baht being the worst performer.  

 

The rupee opened steady against the dollar and started falling swifty as the dollar index rallied to the 101 level Monday after a sharp fall last week due to weaker than expected jobs data dampening expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by September. However, traders continue to expect a rate hike by the end of this year. Market participants await key ISM service purchasing manufacturing index data, due later in the day, and minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting for insight into the future path of interest rates. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.04, up from 100.86 Friday.

 

Importers' active dollar purchases put pressure on the Indian unit. "Oilers (oil marketing companies) were bidding actively today, probably because of the dollar rally and also as oilers want to make the most of lower crude prices. There was equal buying and selling today," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, the fall of the Indian unit was limited as the Reserve Bank of India stepped in through state-owned banks and sold dollars at multiple levels. The RBI made sure 95.50 levels were not tested Monday, they said. 

 

Foreign banks also sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, supporting the rupee, dealers said. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers in June and so far in July after being net sellers for three months till May. They have net bought $590.29 million so far in July and $2.69 billion in June, compared with net sales of $21.8 billion in the three months through May. Domestic equities rose sharply Monday, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex rising nearly 0.7?ch from the previous close. 

 

Lower crude oil prices also provided relief to the Indian unit. Crude oil prices remained at pre-war levels as seven members of the broader OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking a fifth straight monthly increase. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil September futures were slightly higher at $71.61 per barrel from $72.12 Friday.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3950	95.2300	95.2225	95.4900	95.2100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.83	260.21	265.95	259.59	259.56

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures on Monday as banks bought dollars actively for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose to an over 10-day high of 2.79% or 265.95 paise Monday. 

 

However, gains in dollar-rupee forward premiums were limited as dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.79%, up from 2.73% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 265.83 paise, up slightly from 259.56 paise at close Friday.  

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to track flows in the market, with dealers saying the absence of fresh cues from the US-Iran peace talks and the dollar index will leave dollar demand and supply dynamics as the key driver of trading.

 

"Market participants are now focused on this week's US Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are expected to provide further clarity on the US interest rate outlook. These developments will be key drivers for the dollar and, in turn, the rupee," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if there are no inflows in the market. The next intervention by the RBI is expected to be around 95.50 a dollar. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 95.70. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.20–95.80 against the dollar Tuesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index recovers; minutes of Fed meeting eyed

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3334	1.3356	1.3329	1.3354
EUR/USD	1.1418	1.1442	1.1415	1.1440
NZD/USD	0.5681	0.5709	0.5681	0.5704
AUD/USD	0.6931	0.6943	0.6922	0.6939
USD/JPY	162.2690	162.3130	161.3250	161.3750
USD/CAD	1.4229	1.4232	1.4198	1.4196
EUR/JPY	185.2850	185.4100	183.5602	184.6339
CHF/USD	1.2412	1.2451	1.2406	1.2455
EUR/CHF	0.9199	0.9204	0.9187	0.9184

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index recovered from the recent fall and crossed 101 Monday. The dollar index had seen a sharp drop last week as a weaker-than-expected US jobs data dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. 

 

However, traders continue to expect a rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the end of this year, but not as soon as September. Market participants await key ISM service purchasing managers index data, due later in the day and minutes of Fed's June policy meeting to gain clear insights into the future path of the interest rates. At 1430 IST, the dollar index was 101.07, up from 100.86 Friday.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.143 from $1.45 Friday as cooling eurozone core inflationary pressures have eased fears of more interest rate hikes by European Central Bank. German manufacturing orders rose in May, showing tentative signs of stabilising despite continued uncertainty from the West Asia conflict. Factory orders rose 1.9% on month in May, after a 3.2?cline in April, data released Monday showed. Germany is the biggest country in the euro bloc. 

 

The pound sterling fell marginally to $1.33 Monday. The Japanese yen fell for second consecutive day to 161.83 a dollar from 161.08 Friday. The yen faced intervention fears as it hovered near four-decade lows.

 

The Canadian dollar inched down at 1.42 a dollar Monday. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc were down 0.2% against the dollar Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as banks actively buy fwd dlrs for importers

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4350	95.2300	95.2225	95.4500	95.2100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.95	260.21	265.95	259.59	259.56

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures on Monday as banks bought dollars actively for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. "There is heavy buying now. The RBI likely intervened at some levels, but bidding at 40 levels (95.40 a dollar) was high," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose to an over 10-day high of 2.79% or 265.95 paise Monday. 

 

The rupee fell to a low of 95.4625 a dollar in the spot market on Monday amid huge dollar buying. However, dealers speculate there was some dollar sales by the RBI through state-owned banks in the first half of the trading session in the spot market, keeping the rupee range-bound for some time.

 

The forward premium was also supported by fall in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.46% at 1300 IST from 4.48% Friday. The 10-year US treasury yield fell Monday following last Thursday's weaker-than-expected employment data that led the market to scale back expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

 

At 1300 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.79%, up from 2.73% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 265.95 paise, up slightly from 259.56 paise at close Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls to 3-week low on importers' demand, rise in dollar index

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4350	95.2300	95.2225	95.4500	95.2100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to an over-three-week low against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, especially oil marketing companies, fearing further fall in the Indian unit, dealers said. "There were heavy bids at around 95.40 (a dollar). The rupee will move either down or higher only after RBI fix time," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The rupee was trading in a tight range of 23 paise Monday.

 

The rupee was also weighed down by a rise in the dollar index. The index recovered to 101 level Monday after a sharp fall last week due to a weaker-than-expected job data. However, traders continue to expect a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve by the end of this year, but not as soon as September. Market participants await key ISM Service Purchasing Managers' Index data, due later in the day and minutes of Fed's June policy meeting to gain clear insights into the future path of interest rates. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was 101.04, up from 100.86 Friday.

 

Indian unit tracked Asian peers, which fell 0.1-0.5% Monday, with Taiwan dollar being the worst performer, followed by Thai baht. 

 

Domestic equities rose sharply, which gave some relief to the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1230 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex rose 0.7?ch Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.15-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 6

 

MUMBAI – At 1127 IST, the rupee was at 95.4100 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.2300 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.2100. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.70	95.50	95.15	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.55	95.20	94.95
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.50	95.10	94.85
Foreign bank	95.80	95.55	95.20	95.05
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.50	95.20	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.60	95.15	95.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady on FPI inflows; rise in dollar index weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2400	95.2300	95.2225	95.2825	95.2100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the greenback Monday as banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors amid slew of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India. "Gradually, we can expect the dollar inflows to rise. There are few corporate inflows now, but not enough to move the market," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The Indian rupee was supported by positive sentiment over the potential inclusion of Indian government bonds in Bloomberg's flagship Global Aggregate Index. Bloomberg Index Services committee is likely to meet mid-July to review the inclusion of Indian sovereign bonds in its Global Aggregate Index, news report said. 

 

The dollar index recovered gradually as investors awaited next cues to decide the direction of the index, which weighed on the Indian unit. The US Services PMI data, due later in the day, may shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path this year. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was 100.93 from 100.88 Friday. 

However, dealers expect importers to step in and buy dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee level, putting further pressure on the Indian unit. If the rupee falls under extreme pressure, the Reserve Bank of India may sell the dollar through state-owned banks and support the rupee at around 95.50 a dollar, dealers said. 

 

Meanwhile, lower crude oil prices provided relief to the Indian unit. Crude oil prices remained near pre-war levels as seven members of the broader group called OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels a day in August, marking a fifth straight monthly increase. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September futures were slightly down at $71.75 a barrel, from $72.12 Friday. 

 

At 0930 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.5?ch from the previous close. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.15-95.40. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.15 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)  

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 6

 
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.40	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.40	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.30	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.00
Foreign bank	95.40	94.05
Brokerage firm	95.50	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down on gradual recovery in dollar index

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Monday as the dollar index gradually recovered, with positioning adjusting following the long US holiday weekend. The dollar index saw a sharp drop last week as weaker-than-expected US job data dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September. The dollar index rose to 100.96 at 0800 IST from 100.86 Friday. 

 

Investors await key data points, such as the US ISM services data and the FOMC minutes due later this week, to get direction for the dollar index. 

 

However, lower crude oil prices provided relief to Asian currencies. Crude oil prices remained near pre-war levels as seven members of the broader OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking a fifth straight monthly increase. At 0800 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September futures were slightly up at $72.27 per barrel, from $72.12 Friday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.2% to 1533.68 a dollar from 1530.15 on Friday as the currency began its first day of 24-hour trading, marking a milestone in South Korea's push to open its financial markets to global investors. The won will trade against the dollar from Monday to Saturday during US daylight saving time, significantly extending the hours from the previous 9 AM to 2 AM weekday regime. The currency fell last week towards its weakest level since 2009. 

 

The Philippine peso fell to 61.51 a dollar from 61.43 Friday. The Thai baht rose marginally against the dollar Monday. The Taiwan dollar fell 0.3% to 32.01 a dollar from 31.93 on Friday. The Chinese yuan fell 0.2% to 6.78 a dollar from 6.77 Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.3950

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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