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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

 

NEW DELHI – Waning expectations of an early rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, in the wake of a cooling jobs market, are likely to keep gold prices in a range in July with an upward bias. Going forward, analysts expect gold prices to be driven more by economic data over geopolitical premium as worries about inflation have eased, with crude oil prices retreating to pre-war levels and US-Iran tensions easing. 

 

As per the median of estimates from nine broking firms polled by Informist, the August gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is expected to be in the range of INR 140,000-INR 150,500 per 10 grams in July. On COMEX, gold is seen around $3,935-$4,325 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing, the August contract on COMEX was up 1.5% at $4,189.3 per ounce.

 

"The directional outlook is positive," Manoj Kumar Jain, director and head of commodity and currency research at Prithvi Finmart, said. "If the US job market remains under pressure and the inflation fear eases because of lower crude oil prices, the Fed will not increase the interest rate in a hurry. The dollar index would remain rangebound, supporting gold prices."

 

Data released Thursday showed US job growth slowed sharply in June, while payroll figures for the previous two months were revised lower, signalling a cooling labour market. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May as workers exited the labour force, taking the participation rate to its lowest level in more than five years.

 

Markets have dialled back their earlier expectations of rate hikes, with only 18% of traders pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in the Fed's July meeting, down from roughly 30% last week. For the September meeting, 46% expect policy tightening from the current rate of 3.50-3.75%, according to CME FedWatch. Typically, interest rate cuts increase the appeal of non-interest-yielding gold. 

 

Analysts noted that gold's run on geopolitical tensions has maxed out as US and Iran concluded their talks in Doha on Tuesday. Iran said a "communication channel" will be set up with the US to report and discuss breaches of the Memorandum of Understanding signed on Jun. 17, Al Jazeera reported.

 

Although the current truce in West Asia remains fragile, markets expect the worst to be behind. "I don't think that even the US can afford to stretch the war any further. So I think that will be in the background now, like Russia and Ukraine," Ravindra Rao, founder, Arthavrksh Financial Services, said. "On the price action front, I feel it (gold) will be purely data-driven now with interest rate expectations."

 

Rao said that gold prices on COMEX may rise further to $4,380-$4,400 in July. He said prices could test $4,550-$4,600 levels but are unlikely to sustain them amid lack of major bullish triggers. Most analysts also expect continued central bank gold purchases to support prices. The latest World Gold Council report showed that central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to their reserves, highlighting the long-term demand for the yellow metal.

 

"While short-term volatility around key economic data is likely to continue, the broader outlook remains positive, with buying on dips expected to be the preferred strategy," said Ravinder Sharma, senior research analyst, SMC Global Securities. 

 

On MCX, the rupee will remain the key driver for domestic gold prices. Prithvi Finmart's Jain does not expect the rupee to appreciate meaningfully in July amid high imports and El Nino concerns impacting monsoon rains and crop cultivation. He said the rupee could test 96.20 levels against the dollar in July, and support MCX gold prices as a weak Indian unit increases the cost of importing gold. 

 

Following are the estimates from nine brokerages for gold prices in July, in alphabetical order of brokerage name:

 

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
Arthavrksh Financial Services	3,950	4,380	140,450	148,000
IndusInd Securities	3,950	4,250	142,000	149,000
Kedia Advisory	3,920	4,250	138,800	150,500
Kotak Securities	4,000	4,300	140,000	152,000
LKP Securities	3,900	4,400	140,000	151,000
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	--	--	140,450	145,225
Nirmal Bang	3,950	4,080	143,000	147,000
Prithvi Finmart	3,910	4,400	140,000	155,000
SMC Global Securities	3,900	4,350	130,000	152,000
Median	3,935	4,325	140,000	150,500

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.26

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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