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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Futures contracts of gold extended gains on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and COMEX on Friday amid a soft dollar. Weak US jobs data dampened expectations of a near-term rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, weighing on the greenback and supporting dollar-denominated commodities.

 

At 1925 IST, the most active August contract of GOLD on the MCX was up 1% at INR 147,227 per 10 grams. The same-month contract on COMEX was up 1.3% at $4,179.2 per ounce. The most active September SILVER contract on the MCX was up 1.6% at INR 237,086 per kilogram. The same-month silver contract on COMEX was up 2.7% at $62.69 per ounce.

 

"June nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations, prompting traders to sharply reduce bets on a near-term rate hike, while the dollar and Treasury yields remained under pressure, improving the appeal of non-yielding precious metals," Kotak Neo said in a note. 

 

Data released Thursday showed US nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June against expectations of around 110,000-115,000, while April and May figures were revised lower. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May as workers exited the labour force, taking the participation rate to its lowest level in more than five years.

 

The jobs data have pushed the odds of a rate hike in the Fed's July meeting down to around 18%, from roughly 30?rlier in the week, according to CME FedWatch. "Markets have pushed back expectations for a fully priced rate hike from October to December, following weaker jobs data that reduced the likelihood of near-term tightening," Kaynat Chainwala, research analyst, Kotak Securities, said in a note. Gold is also drawing additional support from central bank buying, led by continued buying from Poland and China, she added. 

 

With US markets shut on Friday, analysts said Friday's trade is likely to remain thin. Though gold prices are set for another weekly gain, Chainwala said that the next week brings "the first real test" of this rally. "FOMC minutes on Jul. 8 will be scrutinized for how divided officials are on the hike debate flagged in June's dot plot. Having said that, the path stays two-sided rather than one-directional in the near term."  

 

Traders will remain cautious ahead of the June CPI release due on Jul. 14, the last major inflation print before the Fed meets on Jul. 29. "A hot print could quickly unwind this week's dovish repricing," Chainwala said. 

 

For the coming week, gold is expected to trade in the range of $3,950-$4,290 per ounce on COMEX, Ravinder Sharma, senior research analyst, SMC Global Securities, said. Sharma sees MCX gold trading around INR 140,000-INR 152,000 per 10 grams in the coming week.

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 143,243–INR 151,907 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $4,022–$4,241.8 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 226,339-INR 248,667 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $57.9-$67.27 an ounce

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.21

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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