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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026

MUMBAI – The 2026 southwest monsoon's first low pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal within 24 hours under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the same region, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. This low pressure area is likely to trigger intensification of the monsoon over parts of central, west, and north India till Tuesday, the weather agency said.

The low pressure area is likely to cause heavy to very heavy rainfall over coastal Odisha, after which the rainfall belt will steadily shift further into the mainland, the weather agency said. An east-west shear zone is expected to develop across the country under the influence of the low pressure area, extending from the east to west coast. This weather system is likely to be embedded with smaller-scale cyclonic circulations, further enhancing the intensity of rainfall, the agency said. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha.

The intensification of monsoon is likely to spread further westwards, bringing heavy to very heavy showers to north-central Maharashtra, southwest Madhya Pradesh, south Rajasthan, and parts of Gujarat, the weather agency said. 

The intensity, track, and duration of the low pressure area is likely to play a crucial role in reducing the rainfall deficit the country has recorded so far in the monsoon, the agency said. The weather system is likely to lower the pan-India rainfall deficit from nearly 40% to at least 30% during the first 10 days of July. The weather system is expected to greatly increase the intensity and spread of rainfall over the central and western parts of the country. The Konkan coast, including Mumbai, are likely to record torrential rainfall till Tuesday.

There are early indications of another weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal, which could potentially follow a similar track as the current low pressure area, the weather agency said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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