More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are expected to stay relatively rangebound around $4,100 per ounce, with a 5?nd, during the second half of 2026. Moderating-but-elevated inflation and expectations of further, but limited, central banking tightening are likely to weigh on the precious metal prices, the World Gold Council said. 

 

The first half of 2026 was dramatic, with gold prices soaring to cross above $5,500 levels in January, and later dipping below $4,000 in late June. The council said gold is roughly 7% down year-to-date; nonetheless, it ranks among the top-performing asset classes over the past year. 

 

"Gold could resume its upward trend around US$4,500/oz, but only a strong, clear signal may push it sustainably towards US$5,000/oz," the council said. Renewed geopolitical shocks, worsening economic growth, a shift towards lower-interest-rate expectations, or a wave of dip buying can reignite gold's upward momentum, it added. At the time of writing, gold prices on COMEX were 1.6% up at $4,104 per ounce. 

 

The council did not rule out gold prices slipping further to $3,500 levels if economic growth remains resilient and bond yields rise, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. "...calmer markets could see gold slip further – though a fall of more than 10% from current levels may be tempered by bargain-hunting demand," the council said. 

 

Beyond macroeconomic and geopolitical scenarios, the council said demand from central banks and India will subtly influence the gold price trajectory in the second half. Though central banks have "tactically sold" or swapped gold in the first quarter of 2026, the council estimates banks will be "consistent net buyers" this year. 

 

"An increasing proportion of reserve managers noted that they expect their own gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months," the council said, quoting its survey. However, it said questions have been raised about the pace of their purchases. 

 

Meanwhile, India's hike in gold import duty is estimated to further weigh on demand. "Our econometric analysis suggests that the country's import duty increases alone will reduce jewellery, bar and coin demand by 50t–60t (or about 10% y/y)," the council said. India is the second-largest gold market with a net demand of 800 tonnes per year. 

 

In May, New Delhi hiked gold import duty to 15% from 6% to discourage gold purchases and save foreign exchange reserves. The council said economic deceleration amid a weak rupee and high energy prices can affect Indian consumers' purchasing power and deter them from taking advantage of entering markets when gold prices pull back. "Furthermore, defaults on collateralised gold loans – which have been gaining traction over the past few years – could increase, thus boosting gold supply," it added.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.24

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.