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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended below the psychologically crucial 95-per-dollar mark and settled at an over three-week low Wednesday as oil importers continuously bought dollars, leading to stop losses being triggered on short dollar bets, dealers said. Lack of active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India around the key 95.00 mark also exacerbated the rupee's fall, they said. The Indian unit posted its biggest one-day fall in over three-weeks Wednesday. 

 

"Since 94.95 (a dollar) was eyed...all shorts (dollar) positions were triggered with stop loss, which means the buying (of dollars) had to happen automatically," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit settled at 95.2475 a dollar, marking a third-consecutive day of fall Wednesday, 0.6% lower than its previous close. The Indian currency traded in a wide range of 69 paise during the day. Asian currencies also fell 0.2-0.7% against the dollar Wednesday, with the South Korean won being the worst performer, followed by the Indian unit.  More

 

The rupee opened broadly stable as crude oil prices also remained steady at pre-war levels despite uncertainty in peace talks between the US and Iran. Both the countries gave conflicting signals on further negotiations, with with an Iranian official saying Tehran won't begin final-agreement talks with the US until hostilities end in Lebanon, and Washington waives oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian funds. And on other hand, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said technical talks between Washington and Tehran were under way. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures were at $72.25 a barrel, down from $72.95 Tuesday.

 

"There is no clarity about the peace talks, so traders are also not sure which direction to move, keeping the crude oil prices broadly steady," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

However, the stability of the Indian unit was short-lived as banks actively bought dollars for importers, who feared a further fall of the Indian unit. "There was heavy demand for dollars today. At 95.00 (a dollar), there wasn't much selling, so they would move to find sellers. If that was a trading position, selling would kick in, but the selling wasn't enough in front of demand," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through state-owned banks at 94.74 a dollar, which kept the rupee in check for the major part of the day. But as the dollar purchases increased, the RBI did not hold much and the rupee fell swiftly, triggered by stop losses. "RBI's dollar sales did not hold too long. It doesn't make sense for the RBI to intervene at 95.00 level, as they will have to burn a lot of cash," a dealer at another private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee may be under pressure due to persistent safe-haven flows into the greenback, they said. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year strengthened the dollar further. Steady data on job openings in the US gave more reassurance to investors. Job openings in the US was at 7.6 million in May, unchanged from April. Meanwhile, the hiring rate also held steady at 3.3% with about 5.2 million Americans landing new jobs in May. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.34, higher than 101.17 Tuesday. 

 

Dealers said the rupee gained support from foreign banks' dollar sales for foreign investors. "We could see healthy investments in bonds. Steadily Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposits are also rising. My estimation is that, so far, around $15 billion may have been mobilised from FCNR deposits," the dealer said. FPIs bought a net $2.63 billion in the Indian market as of Jun. 29, against outflows of $4.48 billion in May. Inflows in June were mainly driven by $3.31 billion into government bonds. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2475	94.6600	94.6025	95.2900	94.6600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	264.59	263.73	265.91	261.82	262.30

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars actively for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose to a one-week high of 267.25 paise during the day.  

 

However, the rise in dollar rupee forward premium was limited as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. Banks also sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of foreign investors, which put pressure on forward premiums. 

 

The forward premium was also under pressure due to a rise in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.47% at 1530 IST from 4.46% Tuesday. The 10-year US treasury yield rose Tuesday amid inflation concerns and uneven progress in the US-Iran peace talks.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.76%, down from 2.77% Tuesday. But on an absolute basis, the premium was 264.59 paise, slightly up from 262.30 paise at close Tuesday. 

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices as market participants focus on progress of the US-India negotiations, dealers said. Investors will also keep a close watch on the dollar index amid evolving expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year.

 

"Focus also remains on key US labour market data, including ADP employment change, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate, which will shape expectations for the Fed's policy outlook and drive the next move in the dollar," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers said the rupee may rise slightly Thursday, expecting heavy dollar sales at around 95.25 a dollar. "95.25 (a dollar) is selling levels. I expect rupe to slide back slowly in the weeks to come," a dealer at public sector bank said. 

 

Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from a slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, which will weigh on the rupee.

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80–95.30 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX:Dlr up on safe haven demand due to steady US job data

 

	AT 1300 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3248	1.3264	1.3229	1.3259
EUR/USD	1.1397	1.1425	1.1393	1.1420
NZD/USD	0.5676	0.5679	0.5662	0.5677
AUD/USD	0.6890	0.6920	0.6883	0.6918
USD/JPY	162.6580	162.8380	162.5310	162.5630
USD/CAD	1.4222	1.4225	1.4195	1.4195
EUR/JPY	185.3800	185.7551	185.3270	185.6600
CHF/USD	1.2350	1.2375	1.2342	1.2365
EUR/CHF	0.9228	0.9237	0.9227	0.9228

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose after job openings in the US held steady at 7.6 million in May, unchanged from April. Meanwhile, the hiring rate also held steady at 3.3% with about 5.2 million Americans landing new jobs in May. At 1430 IST, the dollar index was at 101.36, higher than 101.17 Tuesday.

 

Dollar index also rose due to persistent safe-haven flows into the greenback and strong corporate dollar demand. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year, is the underlying reason for the index staying firm at over one-year high. 

 

However, crude oil prices were steady despite uneven progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, which provided support to major currencies. Both the warring countires gave conflicting signals, with an Iranian official saying Tehran won't begin final-agreement talks with the US until hostilities end in Lebanon, and Washington waives oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian funds. Meanwhile, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said technical talks between Washington and Tehran were underway. At 1430 IST, Brent crude oil prices were down slightly at $72.28 a barrel, against $72.95 Tuesday.

 

The euro rose marginally at $1.14 Wednesday as Germany's manufacturing PMI rose modestly to 50.3 in June from 50.1 in May, driven by growth in new orders and lower input costs. Germany is the largest bloc in the eurozone. The pound sterling was also marginally up at $1.32 Wednesday even as the UK's manufacturing activity cooled in June, with PMI slipping to 52.5 in June from 53.9 in May. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 162.78 a dollar from 162.43 Tuesday as Japan's consumer confidence index climbed to 33.8 in June 2026 from 33.6 in May, but remained below market expectation of 34.0. The yen weakened to a 40-year low Tuesday on increasing expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

 

The Australian dollar fell sharply by 0.4% to 1.45 per dollar from 1.44 Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as banks actively buy fwd dlrs for importers

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7275	94.6600	94.6600	95.0875	94.6600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.59	263.72	265.91	261.82	262.30

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures on Wednesday as banks bought dollars actively for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. "There is heavy buying now. The RBI had intervened at some levels, but it couldn't contain buying demand in the spot market," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The rise in dollar rupee forward premium was limited as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The one-year dollar rupee forward premium fell to a low of 2.74% or 261.81 paise Wednesday. 

 

The rupee fell to a low of 95.0875 a dollar in the spot market on Wednesday amid huge dollar buying demand. However, the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales in the first half of the trading session at 94.74 per dollar, keeping the rupee range bound for some time, dealers said.

 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

The forward premium was also under pressure due to a rise in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.47% at 1300 IST from 4.46% Tuesday. The 10-year US treasury yield rose Tuesday amid inflation concerns and uneven progress in the US-Iran peace talks.

 

At 1300 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.75%, down from 2.77% Tuesday. But, on an absolute basis, the premium was 263.59 paise, slightly up from 262.30 paise at close Tuesday.

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India Rupee: Down a tad on importers' dlr demand; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1210 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7275	94.6600	94.6600	94.7475	94.6600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared a further fall of the Indian unit and a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. Crude oil prices stayed at pre-war levels, but are at a risk of reversing the fall amid uncertainty in peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. Dealers expect demand for dollars to come aggressively as the Indian unit approaches 94.65 a dollar.

 

However, the fall in the rupee was limited as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks at around 94.74 a dollar. Dealers said the dollar sales were not aggressive, just to hold 94.75 a dollar level, which kept the Indian unit range-bound. 

 

The Indian unit was under pressure amid persistent demand for dollars due to its safe-have status. The dollar strength was reinforced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 1200 IST, the dollar index was at 101.32, higher than 101.17 Tuesday. 

 

Most Asian currencies also fell slightly due to lack of clarity on further negotiations between two warring countries. Both sides gave conflicting statements on peace talks, with Iranian officials saying Tehran won't begin final-agreement talks with the US until hostilities end in Lebanon, Washington waives oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian funds. Iran said it would hold indirect talks with mediator Qatar to discuss implementation of the deal with the US, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. On the other hand, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said technical talks between Washington and Tehran were underway. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures were at $73.02 a barrel, up from $72.95 Tuesday. 

 

Dealers said the Indian unit also gained support from foreign banks' dollar sales for foreign investors. "There was some selling by foreign banks in early trade. We could see healthy investments in bonds. Steadily Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposits are also rising. My estimation is that, so far, around $15 billion may have been mobilised from FCNR deposits," a dealer from a private sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.50-94.90 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 1

 

MUMBAI – At 1121 IST, the rupee was at 94.7100 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.6600 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.6600. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.90	94.45	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.75	94.45	94.25
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.80	94.50	94.40
Foreign bank	95.00	94.80	94.40	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.85	94.45	94.25
Brokerage firm	95.10	94.85	94.55	94.35

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Edges dn as dlr gains, oil up on lack of clarity on peace talks

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7325	94.6600	94.6600	94.7475	94.6600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices rose amid uncertainty in peace talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. The rupee was dragged down by the hint of tension between the US and Iran, with an Iranian official saying Tehran won't begin final-agreement talks with the US until hostilities end in Lebanon, and Washington waives oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian funds. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil prices were up slightly at $73.34 a barrel, against $72.95 Tuesday. 

 

"There isn't much volume in the market now. Importers are in wait and watch mode. Even exporters are not hedging because there is no conclusion to the war. We are stuck in the middle, without any clear direction. So range-bound movement of the rupee is expected today as well," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in and sell dollars if the rupee hits 94.90 a dollar. 

 

The dollar index gained strength due to persistent safe-haven flows into the greenback and strong corporate dollar demand, they said. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year, is the underlying reason for strength in the dollar. The Japanese yen falling to a 40-year low on Tuesday also drove the rise in the dollar index. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was at 101.36, against 101.17 Tuesday. 

 

A slight rise in domestic equities supported the rupee, according to dealers. At 0900 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.2?ch from the previous close.

 

But dealers expect importers to step in aggressively and buy dollars as soon as the Indian unit hits 94.50 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.50-94.90 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 1

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.50
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.45
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.35
Foreign bank	94.80	94.45
Brokerage firm	94.90	94.50
Brokerage firm	94.90	94.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Fall sharply as dlr rises; South Korean won plunges

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell sharply against the dollar in early trade Wednesday amid a rise in the dollar index as investors flocked to safe-haven assets due to uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks, which weighed further on Asian currencies. The dollar was also supported by the Fed turning more hawkish, and signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 0730 IST, the index was at 101.31, against 101.17 Tuesday. 

 

Asian currencies were under pressure amid uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Tuesday that Tehran won't begin final-agreement talks until hostilities end in Lebanon and Washington waives oil sanctions and releases frozen Iranian funds. 

 

Iranian negotiators and US officials reached Qatar Tuesday, but no face-to-face talks are planned between the sides, according to media reports. Iran said it will hold indirect talks on the deal with mediator Qatar, to discuss implementation of deal with the US, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. At 0730 IST, Brent crude oil prices rose slightly to $73.16 a barrel from $72.95 Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won plunged 0.8% to 1558.48 a dollar from 1546.56 Tuesday, marking the third consecutive fall. The won also hit an over three-week low of 1558.98 in early trade, nearing the lowest level since March 2009 as foreign investors continued to sell local stocks. Foreign investors sold a net $2.5 billion worth of local stocks on Tuesday, media reports said. 

 

Meanwhile, South Korea's purchasing managers index by S&P Global was at 52.1 in June, down from 54.8 in May, data released Wednsday showed. South Korea's exports rose 70.9% in June on year to $102.25 billion, against a 53.4% jump in May, the biggest on-year increase since October 1978. 

 

The Philippine peso also fell sharply to an over three-week low to 61.57 a dollar from 61.35 Tuesday as the dollar continues to gain strength from safe-haven demand. 

 

The Thai baht was down 0.2% at 33.29 from 33.24 at the previous close, as Thailand's current account deficit was at $6.4 billion, larger than market expectation of $3.5 billion, but lower than $7.6 billion in April. 

 

The Taiwan dollar was broadly steady at 31.82 per dollar Wednesday and the Chinese Yuan was down 0.2% at 6.79 per dollar. The Malaysian ringgit, Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar fell marginally Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2475

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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