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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have been above the El Nino thresholds, while atmospheric indicators are also consistent with an El Nino state, suggesting that the event is underway, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. Based on the extent of warming of the Pacific Ocean, forecasts from international climate models point to a strong to very strong El Nino event. Around half of these climate models indicate that the event could peak at the highest levels observed since 1950, the bureau said.

 

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index was 1.24 degrees Celsius, well above the El Nino threshold, and has warmed by around 0.3 degrees Celsius in the past fortnight, the bureau said. All international climate models, including the bureau's, indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue warming in the coming months.

 

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

 

Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns are at levels consistent with El Nino, the weather bureau said. Trade winds have either reversed or are weaker than average across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, while cloud cover has increased near the date line, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index is strongly negative, with the latest 30-day index at (-)25.2 degrees Celsius.  The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

 

The El Nio-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina is associated with more favourable rainfall.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, with the latest index at (-)0.02 degrees Celsius. Many international climate models suggest the development of a positive Indian Ocean during the Southern Hemisphere winter-spring, the weather bureau said. However, the forecasts of these climate models show a large variation in both the timings and strength of this potential event. 

 

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere spans from June to September, and spring from September to December. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could mitigate some effects of an El Nio event on the southwest monsoon in India.

 

India is likely to have below-normal rainfall in July as well, mainly due to persisting El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department said. Although El Nino conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the Southwest monsoon season ending September, the Indian weather department said some global models indicate the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in the second half of the season, or Aug-Sept. Even if rainfall improves in August and September due to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, it is unlikely to compensate for the rainfall deficit in the first half of the season, according to the weather department.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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