More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2026

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story

--IMD: See India Jul rainfall below normal at 94% of long-period avg 
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for temperature, rainfall in July 
--IMD: See El Nino persisting through remaining southwest monsoon 
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole prevailing at present 
--IMD: Some models indicate Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in Aug-Sept 
--IMD: Can speculate more rains Aug-Sept if Indian Ocean Dipole turns positive 
--IMD: Unsure if positive Indian Ocean Dipole can make up for Jun-Jul deficit 
--IMD: Rainfall in central India 50.4?low normal at 84.4 mm in June 
--IMD: Rainfall in south peninsula 27.1?low normal at 117.4 mm in June

 

NEW DELHI – India is likely to have below-normal rainfall in July as well, mainly due to persisting El Nino conditions. The average rainfall during the next month is expected to be around 94% of the long-period average of 280.4 mm, the India Meteorological Department said. In June, rainfall was nearly 40?low the normal. 

 

"Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country," IMD said. However, some areas of northwest and northeast India, east central India, and the eastern peninsular region are likely to receive 'normal' to 'above-normal' rainfall in July, it added. 

 

IMD also expects temperature to rise above normal in July. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most of India, barring a few pockets in some regions, it said.

 

JUNE RAINS

India received only 99.5 mm rainfall in June, which was the fifth lowest since 1901. The lowest June rainfall on record was 87.6 mm in 2009, IMD said. 

 

Region-wise, all four regions received below-normal rains, with central India and east and northeast India recording higher deficits. Rainfall in June over central India was 50?low the normal at 84.4 mm, or the seventh lowest since 1901. East and north-east India received 197.5 mm, nearly 40?low normal and the lowest since 1901.

 

Rainfall in northwest India was over 31?low normal at 53.7 mm, while south India got 117.4 mm rain, which was over 27?low normal.  

 

Rainfall activity was largely impacted in June due to the development of El Nino conditions. "IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is in neutral phase, which could not help to compensate for the negative impact of El Nino," IMD said. 

 

NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK 

Although El Nino conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the Southwest monsoon season ending September, IMD said some global models indicate the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in the second half of the season, or Aug-Sept. 

 

"There is some kind of unanimity (among global weather models) that it will happen in the second half of the monsoon season or towards September," IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said in the press conference. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could abate the impact of an El Nino event. However, the impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. 

 

Mohapatra said one can "speculate" that rainfall will improve in the second half of the monsoon amid some models indicating the Indian Ocean Dipole will turn positive. Even if rainfall improves in August and September, Mohapatra said, it is unlikely to compensate for the rainfall deficits in the first half of the season. 

 

The weather department will release its monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature for August towards the end of July. End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.