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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks actively bought dollars for importers, who feared a further fall of the Indian unit, dealers said. However, a slight fall in crude oil prices and the Reserve Bank of India's intervention limited the fall, they said. 

 

"Discounted oil prices along with month-end payments led the importers to buy the dollars," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "RBI's probably wanted to keep the rupee at a comfortable range, probably because it's both half-year and month-end closing," the dealer said.     

 

The Indian unit settled at 94.6600 a dollar Tuesday, 0.1% lower than its previous close. The rupee moved within a narrow 23-paise range during the day. Asian currencies traded mixed against the dollar Tuesday, with the South Korean won the worst performer and the Indonesian rupiah the best. 

 

The rupee was the best performer among Asian peers in June, followed by the Philippine peso. The Indian unit snapped a losing streak for three straight months and hit a high of 94.13 a dollar in June from an all-time low of 96.96 a dollar in May as oil prices fell below pre-war levels after the US and Iran signed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume the ceasefire for 60 days. The Reserve Bank of India's slew of measures to attract foreign fund inflows into the market also boosted the Indian unit. 

 

The Indian unit rose slightly in the early trade as crude oil prices remained steady despite continuous military strikes between the US and Iran. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August futures were at $73.18 a barrel, slightly up from $73.15 Monday and $71.99 Friday. 

 

However, uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran puts crude oil prices at risk of reversing the fall. A rift between the two warring countries clouded the prospects for further negotiations to end the war. US President Donald Trump claimed that further negotiations will take place in Qatar Tuesday. Iran denied Trump's claims, but said it would send an expert delegation to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian assets.

 

However, the Indian unit fell sharply later as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who sought to make the most of the relatively low dollar-rupee levels amid looming uncertainty over the interim peace deal between the warring nations, dealers said. "Importers were very active at 94.50 (a dollar), and there was no selling at that level. That is why it fell sharply by around 20 paise," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Dealers expect the rupee to touch 95.00 per dollar as early as this week or next, amid rising demand for the dollar.

 

The Indian unit did not weaken further as foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of foreign funds, dealers said. Foreign investors, who were net sellers in May, are gradually reversing course and turning into net buyers in June after the Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of measures to attract foreign inflows. FPIs bought securities worth a net $2.17 billion as of Jun. 25, driven mainly by $3.06 billion inflows into government bonds, compared with outflows of $4.48 billion in May. 

 

Meanwhile, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the Indian unit from touching 94.80 a dollar, dealers said. They said that if the rupee breaches 94.80 per dollar, it could quickly fall to 95.00, unless the RBI supports.

 

The dollar index rose as investors shifted to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks, which weighed further on the Indian unit. The demand for the dollar was also driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 1530 IST, the index was at 101.32, against 101.11 Monday. 

 

A slight fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, according to dealers. On Monday, both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.3% lower. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6600	94.5600	94.5225	94.7550	94.5400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	262.30	264.77	265.80	261.70	264.35

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended slightly lower as foreign banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of foreign portfolio investors. Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions.

 

However, banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which kept forward premiums from falling sharply, they said. A fall in US Treasury yields also limited the fall in premium forwards, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.37%, down from 4.38% Monday. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77% at 1530 IST, down from Monday's close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 262.30 paise, against 264.35 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices as market participants focus on negotiations between the US and Iran, dealers said. "The Indian unit has shifted its focus back to crude oil prices from the dollar index. Till the war subsides, the rupee will follow crude," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

Investors will also keep a close watch on the dollar index amid uncertainty over peace talks between the two warring nations and evolving expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year. Investors are pricing in at least one rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, a sharp reversal from expectations of two rate cuts before the war in Iran began. Market participants will focus on this week's key US economic data, including ADP employment change, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment figures, which are expected to drive the next move in the dollar.

 

Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from a slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. The next intervention by the RBI is expected to be around 94.80 a dollar. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.80 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 95.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.40–94.90 against the dollar Wednesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index up on uncertainty over US-Iran talks

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3228	1.3262	1.3223	1.3258
EUR/USD	1.1389	1.1426	1.1383	1.1426
NZD/USD	0.5650	0.5659	0.5641	0.5650
AUD/USD	0.6881	0.6889	0.6866	0.6888
USD/JPY	162.3250	162.4120	161.9120	161.9170
USD/CAD	1.4230	1.4240	1.4201	1.4203
EUR/JPY	184.8720	185.3620	184.6770	184.9800
CHF/USD	1.2353	1.2389	1.2343	1.2377
EUR/CHF	0.9219	0.9227	0.9219	0.9225

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose as investors shifted to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks, which weighed further on the Indian unit. The demand for dollars was also driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 1400 IST, the index was at 101.32, against 101.11 Monday.

 

Brent crude oil remained at pre-war levels despite escalation between the US and Iran, which gave some relief to major currencies. Tuesday, Brent crude oil prices fell slightly to $72.57 a barrel, down from $73.15 Monday, but up from $71.99 Friday. 

 

However, uncertainty over peace talks between the US and Iran weighed on currencies. US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran had "requested a meeting", and that the talks would take place in Qatar Tuesday. Iran denied Trump's claims and said it would send an expert delegation to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian funds. 

 

The Japanese yen, a major currency in the index, weakened to its lowest level in 40 years in early trade, which strengthened the dollar index further. Japan's unemployment rate was 2.5% in May, unchanged from April, according to data released Tuesday. The euro fell marginally to $1.14 Tuesday even as Germany's retail sales in May rose 1.1% compared to the previous month, data showed on Tuesday. Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone.  

 

The pound sterling was broadly stable at $1.32 Tuesday as the UK's economy grew 0.6% in the March quater, matching expectations, driven by robust services, modest production gains.

 

The Swiss krona was also broadly stable against the dollar Tuesday. The Canadian dollar and Swedish franc fell 0.2?ch. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premium dn as banks sell fwd dlrs, likely RBI buy-sell swap aids

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6525	94.5600	94.5225	94.6800	94.5400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.80	264.77	265.80	263.72	264.35

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell slightly across tenures as foreign banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. The one-month dollar rupee forward premium edged down to 2.79% from 2.80% Monday. 

 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The rupee was range-bound and did not breach 94.70 a dollar, likely due to RBI's intervention through dollar sales in the spot market at around 94.70 a dollar, they said. 

 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

However, banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which kept forward premiums from falling sharply, they said. A fall in US Treasury yields also limited the fall in premium forwards, dealers said. At 1300 IST, the 10-year US treasury yield was at 4.36%, lower than 4.38% Monday. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79% at 1300 IST, down from Monday's close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.80 paise, against 264.35 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down as importers buy dollars; fall in oil, FX inflows support

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6375	94.5600	94.5225	94.5825	94.5400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for oil companies and other importers, fearing further fall in the Indian unit, dealers said. "The rupee was expected to appreciate this week as oil fell to pre-war level, but importers' month-end demand came in, putting pressure on the rupee," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

However, foreign banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, which limited the fall of the rupee, dealers said. Foreign investors, who were net sellers in May, are slowly reversing the trend and turning into buyers in June after the Reserve Bank of India rolled out a slew of measures to attract foreign funds into the market. FPIs net bought $2.17 billion in the Indian market as of Jun.25, which was mostly from $3.06 billion inflows in government bonds, against outflows of $4.48 billion in May. 

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a slight fall in crude oil prices, which have held at pre-war levels for three straight days. However, crude oil prices are at risk of reversing losses as the ceasefire between the US and Iran remains fragile. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures was at $72.14 a barrel, down from $73.15 Monday, but up from $71.99 Friday.

 

However, the rupee was dragged down by the hint of tension between the US and Iran, with US President Donald Trump claiming that Iran had "requested a meeting", and that the talks would take place in Qatar Tuesday. Iran denied Trump's claims and said it would send an expert delegation to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian funds. 

 

The dollar index rose as investors flocked to safe-haven asset amid uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks, which weighed further on the Indian unit. The dollar demand was also driven by the Federal Reserves' hawkish stance, signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 1200 IST, the index was at 101.33, against 101.11 Monday. The Japanese yen, a major currency in the index, weakened to its lowest level in 40 years, which strengthened the dollar index further.

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, according to dealers. At 1200 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 edged down from the previous close.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.40-94.70 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.70 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 30

 

MUMBAI – At 1103 IST, the rupee was at 94.5325 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.5600 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.5400. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.80	94.45	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.75	94.45	94.25
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.70	94.35	94.15
Foreign bank	95.00	94.80	94.40	94.20
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.85	94.45	94.25
Brokerage firm	95.10	94.80	94.20	94.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Steady as crude falls despite uncertainty on US-Iran peace talks

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5675	94.5600	94.5225	94.5825	94.5400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly stable against the dollar in early trade as Brent crude oil prices fell slightly despite a rift between the US and Iran, which clouded the prospects of negotiations to end the war, dealers said.

 

"Now, traders see this as the new normal. They won't react until there's any solid news or if there's any escalation and Hormuz is closed. Till then, they will be in wait and watch mode. That is why oil is mostly unchanged," a dealer at a public sector bank said. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures were at $72.83 a barrel, down from $73.15 Monday, but up from $71.99 Friday. 

 

However, the rupee was weighed down by uncertainty on peace talks between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump claimed that further negotiations will take place in Qatar Tuesday. Iran denied Trump's claims, but said it would send an expert delegation to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian funds.

The demand for dollars amid rising uncertainty on the West Asia war front put pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar's safe haven status took front stage as prospects for an end to the war dimmed, while a hawkish Federal Reserve raised expectations of a rate hike by the year-end to curb inflation. 

 

However, dealers expect importers to buy dollars for their month-end obligations, which will further weigh on the rupee. The dealers expect the RBI to intervene and sell dollars to limit the rupee's fall as it approaches 94.80 a dollar.  For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.40-94.70 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.70 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 30

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.75	94.35
Foreign bank	94.80	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.85	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.85	94.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down on uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell slightly against the dollar in early trade Tuesday as the US and Iran gave conflicting signals on further negotiations to end the war. US President Donald Trump claimed Iran had "requested a meeting" following the exchange of strikes last week, and said the talks would take place in Qatar Tuesday. But Iran said there was no such plan, but it would send an expert delegation to Doha to follow up on the release of frozen Iranian funds. 

This comes after Iran fired on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the US launched strikes against Iranian sites in response to the attacks. All this was despite both sides signing a memorandum of understanding that brought in a ceasefire. 

 

The dollar index rose as investors flocked to safe-haven asset amid uncertainty on US-Iran peace talks, which weighed further on Asian currencies. The dollar was also supported by the Fed turning more hawkish, and signalling at least one rate hike by the end of this year. At 0700 IST, the index was at 101.20, against 101.11 Monday. 

 

Crude oil prices fell slightly after rising around 2% on Monday as Iran denied any further negotiations with the US. Brent crude oil for August futures were at $72.57 a barrel, against $73.15 Monday and $71.99 Friday.
 
The South Korean won fell slightly by 0.2% to 1543.18 a dollar from 1540.65 Monday. The Philippine peso continued its losing streak for the fourth day and fell marginally to 61.17 a dollar. The Taiwan dollar snapped a five-day losing streak and rose slightly to 31.84 a dollar Tuesday. The Chinese yuan and Thai baht inched up in early trade Tuesday.

 

Bucking the trend, the Malaysian ringgit was up 0.4% against the dollar, the most among Asian peers.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.6600

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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