India Rupee Review
Falls, erases gains as importers persistently buy dlrs
This story was originally published at 16:56 IST on 29 June 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Jun. 29, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee erased earlier gains and ended sharply lower against the dollar Monday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit, dealers said. A slight rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian currency, they said.
"There was a lot of buying (for dollars) once the 94.50 level broke, some shorts (short dollar positions) were also cut," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "I think we may see further move lower towards 95.00 in the coming days."
The rupee settled at 94.5400 a dollar, 0.2% lower than its previous close. The currency market was closed on Friday for Muharram. Other Asian currencies gained 0.1-0.4% against the dollar Monday. The Indian unit was the worst performer among its peers after the South Korean won.
The Indian unit began the day on a positive note and rose to a high of 94.2400 a dollar in early trade as market participants took comfort from reports that the US and Iran have halted strikes and agreed to meet in Qatar Tuesday to resolve differences over the Strait of Hormuz.
Talks of diplomacy returned after Iran launched missiles and drones at US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain early on Sunday, shortly after President Donald Trump threatened that the Islamic Republic would cease to exist if it did not honour the agreement to end the war.
However, gains for the Indian unit were short-lived as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, amid the looming uncertainty related to the sustenance of the interim peace deal between the warring nations, dealers said.
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the Indian unit from falling past 94.40 a dollar for a majority of the day, dealers said. "Nats (state-owned banks) were pretty active around 94.40 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "That level held on for quite some time, which is why once it broke, there was a sharp movement."
However, stop losses on short dollar bets were triggered as importers continued to purchase the greenback, which dragged the Indian unit to the day's low of 94.5550 a dollar, dealers said. "Buying (of dollars) will remain abundant till the time news flow on the war continues," a dealer at another public-sector bank said. "All the dips (in dollar-rupee) are being bought."
Meanwhile, Brent crude price inched up amid uncertainty related to the peace deal between the US and Iran, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the August contract of Brent crude oil future was at $72.90 per barrel as against $71.99 per barrel on Friday.
A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, according to dealers. On Monday, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.5% lower each.
The dollar index fell slightly during European trade as the US and Iran called for a truce and agreed to meet in Qatar to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the index was at 101.27, down from 101.37 Friday.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.5400 | 94.3500 | 94.2400 | 94.5550 | 94.3950 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 264.35 | 262.53 | 264.91 | 262.35 | 266.00 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended slightly lower as some dealers speculated that the RBI may have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. However, losses for premium was limited as banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, they said.
Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. A rise in US Treasury yields also put pressure on premium forwards, dealers said.
The one-year forward premium hit a low of 262.35 paise or 2.78% during the day. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80% at 1530 IST, a tad down from Thursday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.35 paise, against 266.00 paise Thursday.
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the rupee will continue to track movement in crude oil prices as market participants focus on renewed talks between the US and Iran, dealers said. Investors will also keep a close track of evolving expectations around rate increases by the US Federal Reserve later this year.
Investors are pricing in at least one rate hike by the Fed in 2026, a sharp reversal from expectations of two rate cuts before the Iran war began. Market participants will focus on the key US jobs report, due on Thursday.
Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. "The rupee is expected to remain in a trading zone of 94.00 to 94.75 in the coming days while FCNR (Foreign currency non resident) flows remain tepid as we await for the first RBI data on the amount accumulated in FCNR portfolio of banks," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.
Dealers expect month-end dollar demand from importers to weigh on the rupee, as companies typically buy dollars to meet payment obligation. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure.
Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.80 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 95.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.30–94.80 against the dollar Tuesday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index down slightly as US, Iran call for truce
| AT 1400 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3205 | 1.3228 | 1.3191 | 1.3200 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1396 | 1.1416 | 1.1381 | 1.1393 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5649 | 0.5659 | 0.5632 | 0.5643 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6892 | 0.6904 | 0.6881 | 0.6894 |
| USD/JPY | 161.8490 | 161.8570 | 161.7100 | 161.7320 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4196 | 1.4204 | 1.4176 | 1.4190 |
| EUR/JPY | 184.4490 | 184.6730 | 184.1310 | 184.2500 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2358 | 1.2371 | 1.2340 | 1.2357 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9221 | 0.9229 | 0.9213 | 0.9209 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index edged lower, but stayed firm at an over one-year high for the fifth consecutive day as investors' expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve improved after US core PCE inflation data stood above 4% on year for the first time in three years in May, up from 3.8% in April. The dollar index has been inching up since Fed chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the recent policy meeting.
At 1400 IST, the index was at 101.27, down from 101.37 Friday as the US and Iran called for a truce and agreed to meet in Qatar to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz Monday. Brent crude oil prices were slightly high, but at pre-war levels as the US and Iran traded strikes for three days till Sunday. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $72.47 a barrel, up from $72.00 Friday.
The euro rose sharply by 0.4% to 1.14 a dollar from 1.13 Friday. The pound sterling rose 0.3% to 1.32 a dollar from $1.31 Friday.
The Japanese yen was marginally higher at 161.78 a dollar as Japan's retail sales rose 5.3% on year in May, the strongest annual rise since November 2023, beating the market estimate of 3.2%, according to data released Monday.
The Canadian dollar also rose 0.4% against the dollar. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc rose 0.4% against the US unit Monday. Market participants await US jobs data, due Thursday, which could reinforce rate hike expecations. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Premiums down on speculation of RBI's forward dollar sales
| AT 1414 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.3475 | 94.3500 | 94.2500 | 94.4000 | 94.3950 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 263.65 | 262.53 | 264.91 | 262.35 | 266.00 |
MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI likely sold dollars in the spot market at around 94.40 a dollar, they said. The one-month dollar rupee forward premium fell sharply to 2.90% from 3.15% Thursday.
The rupee rose to a high of 94.2500 a dollar Monday, likely supported by RBI's intervention through dollar sales in the spot market, dealers said. "The RBI was selling, but not agressively, just to hold 94.40 levels. The volume in the market is very low right now," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
However, banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which limited downward pressure on forward premiums, they said. A rise in US Treasury yields also put pressure on premium forwards, dealers said. At 1326 IST, the 10-year US treasury yield rose to 4.37% from 4.36% Friday.
The one-year forward premium hit a low of 262.35 paise or 2.78% Monday. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79% at 1326 IST, down from Thursday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.65 paise, against 266.00 paise Thursday. The currency market was closed on Friday for Muharram. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Up slightly as RBI sells dollars; importers' dlr demand weighs
| AT 1200 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.3475 | 94.3500 | 94.2500 | 94.4000 | 94.3950 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly Monday as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "The RBI is holding 94.40 (a dollar), but it won't suatain too long. The rupee will touch 94.50 (a dollar) today," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
However, the apprecation of the Indian unit was limited as banks bought dollars actively for importers, who wanted to make most of lower crude oil prices, dealers said. "The market is like a snake and ladder, RBI is trying to intervene, but importers are buying on dips," the dealer said. Most dealers expect importers to bid agressively as the Indian unit approaches 94.10 a dollar.
The Indian unit was also supported by crude oil prices that remained broadly stable as the US and Iran agreed to halt attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday to resolve their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz after strikes on each other for three staright days. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $72.05 a barrel, against $72.00 Friday.
The dollar index remained firm at an over one-year high for the fifth consecutive day as investors shifted to safe-haven asset after the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, which was reinforced by core PCE inflation data, which stood above 4% for the first time in three years in May, up from 3.8% in April, increasing chances of an interest rate hike. At 1200 IST, the dollar index was at 101.29, down from 101.37 Friday.
Dealers said the rupee might see good movement on both sides during the last leg of trade due to the rebalancing of Nifty indices Monday. Many passive flows are expected in stocks that will either see an increase or a decrease in their weightage on the respective indices. "The rupee may move slightly, but I dont see much impact as the inflows and outflows are expected to be on a similar range," a dealer at a public sector bank said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.20-94.50 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Inches up on US-Iran ceasefire; over 1-yr high dlr index weighs
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.3075 | 94.3500 | 94.2500 | 94.3575 | 94.3950 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose slighlty against the dollar as the US and Iran halted strikes and agreed to meet in Qatar Tuesday to resolve differences over the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices also remained largely unchanged at $72.35 a barrel, against $72.00 Friday.
Brent crude oil prices rose sharply to $75.26 a barrel Thursday as the market reacted to US and Iran's military strikes on each other. However, Brent crude fell sharply Friday and stayed below pre-war levels, not reacting much to the continued hostilities, dealers said.
They said the rupee's direction will be decided purely by flows into the market today. "It's all from the trading point, we need to keep watch on importers activity and any inflows today," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
The rupee continues to be dragged down by a strong dollar. The dollar index held firm at an over one-year high before US jobs data, due Thursday. The global market shifted in favour of the US dollar as the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, reinforced by the core PCE inflation print of above 4% for the first time in three years in May, up from 3.8% in April, keeping chances of an interest rate hike back on the table. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was 101.33, down from 101.37 Friday.
But dealers expect importers to actively step in and buy dollars as soon as the Indian unit hits 94.15 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.05-94.70 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 29
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Public-sector bank | 94.70 | 94.05 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.75 | 94.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.80 | 94.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.75 | 94.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.70 | 94.25 |
| Foreign bank | 94.70 | 94.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 94.80 | 94.05 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as US-Iran strikes dampen risk sentiment
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade as risk sentiment in the market dampened after the US and Iran traded strikes till Sunday, jeopardising an interim agreement that was supposed to halt hostilities during 60 days of technical negotiations. However, both warring countries Monday agreed to halt attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday to resolve their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, according to media reports.
A US official said the technical talks regarding the US and Iran memorandum of understanding were still "on track." US President Donald Trump Sunday threatened more military action if Iranian strikes continue, while Iran warned ceasefire violations would "result in the complete halt of all diplomatic processes."
Brent crude oil prices rose as both countries struck each other, with Iran insisting on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $72.56 a barrel, up from $71.99 Friday, but sharply down from $75.26 Thursday. A strong dollar continues to weigh on Asian currencies. Most Asian currencies have depreciated broadly since the Fed turned hawkish in its recent meeting, signalling a rate hike to contain inflation. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was at 101.33, slightly down from 101.37 Friday.
The South Korean won fell 0.4% to 1541.48 a dollar from 1535.97 Friday as foreign portfolio investors' exit from local stocks continued to weigh. The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3% against the dollar after rising for two straight days. Bank Indonesia's recent policy rate hikes and support measures for the rupiah helped reduce volatility, which in turn slowed the pace of the rupiah's depreciation.
The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.3% to 4.07 a dollar from 4.09 Friday as the country's government Friday said it would step up measures to support the ringgit, including encouraging companies to convert more overseas earnings into the local currency amid expectations of a stronger US dollar.
The Thai baht was down 0.3% at 33.41 a dollar from 33.30 Friday due to continued strengthening of the US unit. The Philippine peso, Chinese yuan, and Taiwan dollar were broadly stable on Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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