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Informist, Monday, Jun. 29, 2026

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has raised its global food grain production estimate for 2026-27 by 13 million tonnes from the previous month to 2.43 billion tonnes. This was owing to upgraded outlooks for maize, barley, and wheat, the council said. However, the estimated output was down 2.5% on year from 2.49 billion tonnes in 2025-26, owing to concerns about El Nino and fertiliser affordability, the council said. 

Consumption of food grains is forecast to rise by 13 million tonnes on year and 11 million tonnes on month to 2.45 billion tonnes in 2026-27. The council's projection of global food grain carry-over stocks in 2026-27 was at 618 million tonnes, up from 615 million tonnes in May. However, global food grain trade is estimated to fall by 1 million tonnes from the May forecast to 445 million tonnes due to cuts in wheat and barley, it said.

For 2025-26, the council has revised the global food grain production upwards by 12 million tonnes from May to 2.49 billion tonnes due to upward revisions to maize output in India, Brazil, South Africa, and Paraguay. Global food grain consumption in 2025-26 is also revised upwards by 10 million tonnes from the previous month to 2.44 billion tonnes, the council said. The council also revised its forecast for carry-over stocks of food grains to 640 million tonnes from 638 million tonnes in May. The forecast for global food grain trade for the year is raised by 6 million tonnes from the previous month to 460 million tonnes.

MAIZE

Maize production in 2026-27 is seen at 1.31 billion tonnes, up from 1.30 billion tonnes in May, the council said. It has also raised the projection for 2025-26 to 1.34 billion tonnes from 1.33 billion tonnes in May. Consumption of the coarse grain for 2026-27 is pegged higher at 1.33 billion tonnes from 1.32 billion tonnes last month and its trade estimate is also seen higher by 1 million tonnes from last month to 201 million tonnes.

WHEAT

For 2026-27, global wheat production has been revised upwards to 821 million tonnes from 820 million tonnes seen in May. Consumption estimate of the grain during the year is kept unchanged from the previous month at 827 million tonnes. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been lowered by 2 million tonnes on month to 280 million tonnes.

For 2025-26, estimates for global wheat production has been kept unchanged from the previous month at 845 million tonnes. Wheat consumption is revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 821 million tonnes, while carryover stocks are projected lower by 2 million tonnes on month to 286 million tonnes, the council said.

RICE

The council left the projection of global production of rice in 2026-27 unchanged from May at 545 million tonnes. Rice output is likely to be largely steady on year, with the rise in production in India offsetting lower output elsewhere, it said. "A strong El Nino event could adversely affect 2026–27 yields in key Asian producers, with global output seen little-changed y/y (year-on-year)," the council said. 

Rice consumption in 2026-27 is estimated at 543 million tonnes, unchanged from May. The projection for global trade during the same period has been left unchanged at 62 million tonnes. The council expects carry-over stocks of rice to rise to 199 million tonnes from 195 million tonnes projected a month ago. This upward revision in end-season inventories on the back of Indian reserves moving close to 60 million tonnes, the report said.

Global rice output in 2025-26 is pegged 1 million tonnes higher at 546 million tonnes. Consumption projection was left unchanged from May at 538 million tonnes and carry-over stocks are projected to rise by 3 million tonnes each from the previous month to 197 million tonnes. Global trade unchanged at 59 million tonnes. 

SOYBEAN

Global soybean production in 2026-27 is unchanged from the previous month at 442 million tonnes. The estimates of soybean consumption and carry-over stocks during the same period are also unchanged from May at 445 million tonnes and 76 million tonnes, respectively. Soybean trade for 2026–27 is also the same as the previous month at 190 million tonnes.

For 2025-26, global soybean output is estimated at a record 431 million tonnes, up from 430 million tonnes in May. Projections for carry-over stocks have been revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 79 million tonnes and trade was revised downwards by 1 million tonnes to 186 million tonnes.

"Boosted by Asian requirements, soyabean trade is seen edging up to a peak in 2025-26, with a heavy increase in exports from South American origins more than compensating for a marked fall in US dispatches," the council said  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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