Informist Poll
India May IIP growth seen easing to 4.5% on manufacturing activity lag
This story was originally published at 19:58 IST on 25 June 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, is likely to have softened in May because of a moderation in domestic manufacturing activity under the impact of the war in West Asia, according to economists. IIP growth, based on the new series, is seen easing to 4.5% in May from 4.9% in April, according to the median in an Informist Poll of 11 economists.
Industrial output had risen 4.8% in May 2025, as per the new series released Jun. 1 with financial year 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year, replacing FY12 in the old series. The new IIP series covers more industries--such as rare earth minerals, gas supply, and water supply--and tracks more items, helping the government to better monitor the health of the industrial sector.
Economists' estimates for IIP growth in May range from 1% to 5.5%. The statistics ministry will release IIP data for May at 1600 IST Monday.
IIP growth is seen moderating in May, "largely on account of a drag in mining and some anticipated slowdown in manufacturing", Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities, said in a note. According to Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank, mining output is likely to remain subdued as indicated by the eight core sector data released Monday. "Electricity is likely to benefit from higher demand and see higher output growth," she said.
Most high frequency data have reflected slower growth in industrial activity. Growth in the output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of IIP, moderated to 0.5% in May from 1.8% in April.
Vehicle production growth also slowed to 13.3% year on year in May from 26% in April, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed. The number of e-way bills generated rose 10.9% on year in May, slower than 11.8% in the previous month, according to data from the Goods and Service Tax Network. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, however, rose to 59.3 in May from 58.2 in April.
Following is the summary of the Informist Poll on IIP growth in May:
| Organisation | May IIP growth |
| Pantheon Marcoeconomics | 1% |
| Bank of Baroda | 1-1.5% |
| Motilal Oswal | 2.2% |
| ICRA | 3% |
| Nirmal Bang Equities | 3.8% |
| HDFC Bank | 4.0-4.5% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 4.5% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 5.2% |
| ICICI Bank | 5.3% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 5.3% |
| India Ratings and Research | 5.5% |
End
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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