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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 25, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as Brent crude oil prices fell sharply overnight to pre-war levels as more ships started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. However, the Indian unit erased considerable portion of its gains as banks persistently bought dollars for oil companies and other importers, they said. 

 

"This was a good opportunity for oilers (oil importers) as the Strait of Hormuz is open for trade and oil prices are discounted, plus (dollar-rupee) rupee was on lower side," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

After rising to 94.1450 a dollar earlier in the day, the rupee settled at 94.3950 a dollar Thursday, 0.3% higher from its previous close. The rupee moved in a wide range of 40 paise during the day.

 

Most Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.3% against the dollar Thursday, with Chinese yuan and Indian unit being the best performers. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won fell a sharp 0.4% as foreign investors exited local equities amid concern about overvaluation of AI stocks.  

 

The Indian rupee opened strong as Brent crude oil fell below the pre-war level as more ships started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices for August futures slipped to $72.58 a barrel at 1530 IST, over 6% down from Wednesday's high of $77.00 a barrel and dropped below the pre-war level of $72.80 recorded on Feb. 27. 

 

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright Wednesday said some 20 million barrels of crude oil have exited the strait in the last 24 hours, which is close to the pre-war levels. Around 30 India-bound ships safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while another 26 vessels of India-bound ships were queued up in the Persian Gulf awaiting passage through the strait, as per media reports.   

 

However, importers stepped in to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, following which the rupee hit a low of 94.5425 a dollar, dealers said.

 

Dealers said foreign banks actively sold dollars for foreign investors, looking to invest into India, which supported the rupee. "The measures by the RBI have been very good for FPIs investing in bonds. The inflows there are really good. After the weekend, that is on Monday and Tuesday, we can expect the FCNR deposits flow strongly," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, some dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales prevented the rupee from falling due to importers' demand. "There was a good amount of selling in the morning at 95.35 a dollar. It was very surprising. We don't know why the RBI chose to sell today at a low level (dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Seeing RBI's activity this week, we can say they are comfortable in this range (94.20-94.80 a dollar)."

 

Market participants shrugged off the dollar's strength ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, due Thursday. The dollar index was at 101.45 at 1530 IST, slightly down from 101.58 Wednesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3950	94.3000	94.1450	94.5425	94.6650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.00	265.00	267.25	263.50	269.64

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums erased some losses as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower premium levels, the dealer said. 

 

However, the losses in premium forwards sustained as banks sold forward dollars for short-term maturity in anticipation of foreign fund inflows from the Reserve Bank of India's foreign currency non-resident deposits scheme. The two-month dollar-rupee forward premium fell the most to 2.89% from 3.09% Wednesday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Thursday to 4.41% from 4.40% Wednesday, which weighed on forward premiums. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, lower than Wednesday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.00 paise, against 269.64 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

The foreign exchange market will be closed Friday due to Muharram. On Monday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, with US-Iran peace talks in focus. Market participants will track foreign fund inflows amid a slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

"The geopolitical situation will be very fragile till the deal is actually done. But considering that the US mid-term elections are nearing, any escalation from the US side is unlikely," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Amid worries around the peace talks, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in dollar-rupee, which will weigh on the rupee. Dealers expect the rupee to be range-bound at 94.20-94.80 a dollar in the near-term as the RBI will buy the greenback to fill its foreign exchange reserves.  

 

Dealers also expect the RBI to intervene if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. They see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.15 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 93.90. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.15–94.80 against the dollar Monday.  

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index a tad down as market awaits inflation data

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3190	1.3197	1.3158	1.3165
EUR/USD	1.1366	1.1373	1.1345	1.1358
NZD/USD	0.5648	0.5653	0.5634	0.5641
AUD/USD	0.6901	0.6908	0.6887	0.6900
USD/JPY	161.8260	161.8970	161.5610	161.7400
USD/CAD	1.4233	1.4243	1.4223	1.4219
EUR/JPY	183.9360	183.9982	183.4300	183.7130
CHF/USD	1.2325	1.2343	1.2298	1.2309
EUR/CHF	0.9221	0.9228	0.9210	0.9221

 

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index a tad down as market awaits inflation data

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was a tad down as the market was cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, which is due Thursday to get further direction of the dollar index. The index was still above one-year high for the sixth-consecutive day Thursday as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year. The dollar continued to strengthen as the major currency in the dollar index Japanese yen weakened due to the impact of the West Asia war. The dollar index was at 101.45 at 1430 IST, down from 101.58 Wednesday.

 

The headline PCE is expected to rise 4.1% on year in May, compared with 3.8% in April, while the core PCE is projected to rise 3.4% on year in May, compared with 3.3% in April. If the reports come higher-than-expected, it could boost the expectation of US interest rate hikes later this year and strengthen the dollar further. 

 

However, a fall in crude oil prices to the pre-war levels as more ships sail through the Strait of Hormuz may support major currencies. At 1430 IST, Brent crude oil for August futures were $72.45 a barrel, down from $72.87 Wednesday. The euro rose 0.3% to $1.14 from a 13-month low of $1.13 Wednesday. 

 

The pound sterling rose marginally to $1.32 Thursday. The Japanese yen fell slightly to 161.73 a dollar from 161.65 Wednesday. Markets expect Bank of Japan's intervention to stabilise the yen. The Canadian dollar was broadly stable against the dollar Thursday. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc rose sharply by 0.2% against the dollar Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums down as banks sell fwd dollars on hopes of FX inflows

 

	AT 1414 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4175	94.3000	94.1450	94.5125	94.6650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.50	265.00	267.25	263.50	269.64

 

India Rupee: Premiums down as banks sell fwd dollars on hopes of FX inflows

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures as banks sold forward dollars in anticipation of foreign fund inflows from the Reserve Bank of India's foreign currency non-resident deposits scheme. "Flows from FCNR deposits are not substantial right now, we can expect good inflows next week. Banks are just preparing for that," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The two-month dollar-rupee forward premium fell the most to 2.93% from 3.09% Wednesday. 

 

 

The Reserve Bank of India's swap facility for banks to raise fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits is expected to draw around $43 billion in inflows, according Informist poll. The central bank will cover the full hedging cost for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR (B) deposits till Sept. 30. The RBI, earlier this week, had clarified that banks are allowed to extend loans to non-residents or issue stand-by letters of credit in favour of overseas lenders against FCNR (B) deposits, which may result in more inflows in the market. 

 

However, the fall in forward premiums was limited as importers bought forward dollars, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee premium levels, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Thursday to 4.41% from 4.40% Wednesday, which weighed on forward premiums.

 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell nearly to a one-week low of 2.79% or 236.50 paise Thursday. At 1403 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, lower than Wednesday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.50 paise, against 269.64 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases most gains on importers' dlr demand; fall in crude aids

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5075	94.3000	94.1450	94.5125	94.6650

 

MUMBAI- The rupee erased most gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a sharp fall in crude oil prices and appreciation of the Indin unit, dealers said. However, the fall in crude oil prices supported the Indian unit, they said.

 

The rupee opened sharply higher Thursday at 94.3000 from its previous close of 94.6650 a dollar. The Indian unit hit a high of 94.1450 a dollar, before bouncing back to 94.5000 a dollar. "The rupee started rising yesterday in the non-deliverable forwards market as the crude dropped sharply. In the morning also, crude kept the rupee high, but importers came in and pushed it down," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "The rupee is likely to stay in 94.15-94.55 range for the day."

 

The market overlooked strong dollar demand and focused on crude oil Thursday, dealers said. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices were at $72.50 a barrel, down from Wednesday's high of $77.00 a barrel and the pre-war level of $72.80 recorded on Feb. 27. Crude oil prices dropped as more ships started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. A total of 30 India-bound ships safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while another 26 India-bound ships are queued up in the Persian Gulf, awaiting passage through the strait, according to media reports.

 

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran would not be able to charge toll in the Strait of Hormuz under any final deal with Washington, which also helped bring down crude prices. The next round of talks between the US and Iran is set to resume in Geneva, Switzerland, next week, he said.

 

A few dealers speculated that state-owned banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, at around 94.35 a dollar, just to contain extreme volatility. The RBI's likely intervention comes after Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Wednesday that the central bank would intervene to ensure orderly movement in the market. 

 

The dollar index remained at an over one-year high as investors continued to price in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve later this year, which weighed on the Indian unit. Investors await a key US inflation report for further direction of the dollar index. At 1200 IST, the index was at 101.54, from 101.58 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.15-94.60 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.55 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 25

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 94.4200 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.3000 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.6650. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.70	94.55	94.20	94.00
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.55	94.10	93.90
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.45	94.15	94.00
Foreign bank	94.65	94.50	94.15	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.75	94.55	94.00	93.80
Brokerage firm	94.70	94.60	94.15	93.90

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Surges on fall in oil to pre-war levels, likely RBI's dlr sales

 

	AT 0932 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.2750	94.3000	94.2500	94.3550	94.6650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as crude oil prices fell below pre-war level for the first time since the war began on Feb. 28, with more ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, which was shut for nearly three months, dealers said. "Being a current account deficit-country, getting oil at discount is comforting. The factors that hit the rupee in the last four months are subsiding now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Some dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars at around 94.35 levels, which supported the rupee further.

 

Brent crude oil prices fell $5 a barrel from Wednesday's high of $77.00 a barrel after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said some 20 million barrels of crude oil have exited the Hormuz in the last 24 hours, which is close to pre-war levels. Nearly 11 India-bound ships have safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $72.46 a barrel, up from $73.74 Wednesday.

 

However, the rupee continues to be dragged down by dollar demand as investors price in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve later this year, while awaiting a key inflation report, due Thursday, for further direction. 

 

Oil importers bought dollars, noting the fall in crude oil prices. But dealers expect importers to actively step in and buy dollars as soon as the Indian unit hits 94.15 a dollar. They may buy dollars aggressively to avoid uncertainty during the long weekend. The foreign exchange market will be shut on Friday due to Muharram.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.15-94.60 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.15 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 25

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.60	94.00
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.10
Private-sector bank	94.65	93.90
Foreign bank	94.65	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.50	94.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as oil at pre-war level; strong dlr weighs

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar in early trade Thursday as crude oil prices fell sharply overnight and touched pre-war levels, with more ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright Wednesday said some 20 million barrels of crude oil have exited the strait in the last 24 hours.

 

Brent crude oil prices fell over 6% from Wednesday's high at $72.5 a barrel, slightly lower than Feb. 27 level of $72.8 a barrel, a day before the war started. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran will not be able to charge toll in the Strait of Hormuz under any final deal with Washington, which helped bring crude prices down sharply. The next round of talks between the US and Iran is set to resume in Geneva, Switzerland, next week, he said. 

However, focus on the dollar remained as the index closed at a 15-month-high Wednesday at 101.58, but retreated slightly to 101.53 in early trade Thursday. Investors continued to price in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve later this year, while awaiting a key inflation report for further direction. Asian stock markets also rallied Thursday, which supported their currencies.

The Malaysian ringgit continued its winning streak for a third day and rose 0.5% to 4.11 a dollar from 4.13 Wednesday after it fell to a seven-month low Monday. The Thai baht rose to 33.37 a dollar from 33.41 Wednesday as its central bank held interest rates steady for a second straight meeting, but upgraded its economic growth forecast to 2.3% this year, higher than a projection of 2.0% made earlier this month. 

 

The Philippine peso, Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan were marginally up against the dollar Thursday. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.8% to a three-week low of 1548.57 a dollar from 1535.93 Wednesday. The won fell sharply as foreign investors continued to exit the domestic stock market. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.3950

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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