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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 24, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all earlier losses and settled slightly higher against the dollar, thanks to likely dollar sales by state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and foreign fund inflows, dealers said. However, importers' active dollar purchases, along with a strong dollar, continued to weigh on the rupee, they said.

 

"The RBI started selling as soon the rupee touched 94.91 (a dollar). Looks like the RBI was giving a message to speculators to play at 94.60-94.90 range only," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Noting the RBI's active intervention, some traders trimmed their long dollar positions, which also supported the Indian unit, they said.

  

The Indian unit hit a low of 94.9125 a dollar during the day but bounced back and settled at 94.6650 Wednesday, slighly higher from the previous close of 94.7350. The rupee moved in a range of 31 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies were down 0.1-1.0% against the dollar Wednesday. The Indian currency was one of the best performer among its Asian peers. 

 

The rupee started day lower against the dollar as the dollar index touched a fresh over one-year high after investors priced in the possibility of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by September. A fall in global equities due to concern about the overvaluation of AI-related stocks boosted the dollar's safe-haven status.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.68, up from 101.40 Tuesday. It touched a high of 101.71 during the day. Market participants said that the focus of the rupee has shifted from crude oil prices and the West Asia war to the dollar.

 

However, the RBI likely stepped in through dollar sales, which arrested the Indian unit's fall beyond 94.92 a dollar, dealers said. Dealers speculated the RBI sold around $800 million in the spot market Wednesday.

 

The Indian unit recieved a boost as banks also sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into government bonds, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "We are seeing very good inflows in G-sec and some inflows in equities as well, Gradually, the foreign currency non-resident bank deposits are also picking up," dealers said.

 

Further some traders trimmed long dollar positions, noting the RBI's intervention and on hopes of more foreign fund inflows after the RBI released clarification on the swap window for FCNR (B) deposits, external commercial borrowings, and overseas foreign currency borrowings. The clarification by the RBI allows banks to leverage the FCNR (B) deposits freely, which is likely to lead to higher inflows while also offering higher returns to depositors. Meanwhile, RBI governor said in an interview with ET now Wednesday that the central bank would defend the rupee only to curb undue volatility in the market. 

 

However, importers' active dollar buying, noting depreciation of the rupee, exerted pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. "They were actively buying dollars in the morning, which moved rupee to 94.92 (a dollar), then the RBI intervened and rest of the day, flows were not much," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit also got some relief from a fall in crude oil prices as more ships started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, easing global energy supply concerns, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery was at $75.55 a barrel from $77.08 Tuesday, just slightly away from pre-war levels.

 

A sharp recovery in domestic indicies also supported the rupee, according to dealers. The Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 1% and 0.8%, respectively, Wednesday.   

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6650	94.8950	94.6000	94.9125	94.7350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.64	272.07	272.07	263.86	279.00

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across most tenures as dealers speculated the RBI may have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions. Exporters also sold forward dollars, which exerted pressure on the forward premiums, they said. 

 

However, the fall in premiums was limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower premium levels, the dealer said. A fall in US treasury yields also supported premiums, dealers said. At 1327 IST, the 10-year US treasury yield was down at 4.48%, against 4.50% Tuesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, against Tuesday's close of 2.95%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.64 paise, against Tuesday's close of 279.00 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Investors await the US PCE inflation data and provisional purchasing managers' survey figures for May, due Thursday, for clarity on the Fed's move in the next meeting. Market participants will also watch movements in crude oil prices. 

 

Market participants will track foreign fund inflows in the Indian market. The RBI's clarification on its swap facility for foreign currency non-resident deposits, external commercial borrowings, and overseas foreign currency borrowings will further boost inflows, they said. 

 

"There is not much data to suggest that the rupee should depreciate. The market is driven by flows now. We will see where the rupee goes from here now... Tomorrow (Thursday), there may be big movements as the market will cover positions due to the long weekend after that," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The currency market is closed on Friday for Muharram. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. The RBI is likely to intervene through dollar sales, as the Indian unit approaches 95.00 a dollar, but not very aggressively, they said. "There are good chances RBI will prevent rupee from falling to 95.00, as they may not be willing to take the risk for the long weekend," the dealer said. 

 

They see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.95 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 95.20. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.50–95.00 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index inches up on interest rate hike bets

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3195	1.3209	1.3172	1.3201
EUR/USD	1.1354	1.1384	1.1338	1.1383
NZD/USD	0.5646	0.5670	0.5641	0.5668
AUD/USD	0.6896	0.6923	0.6893	0.6917
USD/JPY	161.7450	161.7530	161.5320	161.5320
USD/CAD	1.4228	1.4239	1.4207	1.4198
EUR/JPY	183.6410	183.9400	183.3940	183.8700
CHF/USD	1.2320	1.2357	1.2309	1.2341
EUR/CHF	0.9215	0.9225	0.9208	0.9217

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index inched up and stayed at an over one-year high as investors priced in the possibility of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by September. A fall in global equities due to concerns about the overvaluation of AI-related stocks boosted the dollar's safe-haven status. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was at 101.62, up from 101.40 Tuesday. The index closed above 101 for the first time in 13 months Tuesday.  

 

Meanwhile, investors await the US PCE inflation data and provisional purchasing managers' survey figures for May, due Thursday, for clarity on the Fed's move in the next meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had emphasised that policymakers are committed to bringing US inflation back to the 2% target.  

 

The fall in crude oil prices to near pre-war levels provided some support to currencies in the dollar index. Brent crude oil was at $75.63 a barrel, down from $77.08 Tuesday, as more ships started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. However, uncertainty in negotiations between the US and Iran poses risk to currencies. 

 

The euro fell to a one-year low and was down marginally at $1.14 Wednesday as demand for the dollar rose sharply, pricing in multiple Fed rate hikes. The pound sterling was also down marginally at $1.32 Wednesday. 

 

The Japanese yen was steady at 161.55 a dollar after the Japanese government said it was fully prepared to take decisive action and intervene directly in currency markets at any time to protect the yen from speculative moves.

 

The Canadian dollar fell 0.2% to 1.42 a dollar from 1.41 Tuesday. The Australian dollar fell 0.3% Wednesday after its Consumer Price Index rose 4.0% on year in May, a slowdown from April's 4.2% increase. The print also came in lower than the market expectation of 4.4%, data released Wednesday showed. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall on speculation of RBI's forward dollar sale

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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 24, 2026

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6950	94.8950	94.6000	94.9125	94.7350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	268.14	272.07	272.07	263.86	279.00

 

India Rupee: Premiums fall on speculation of RBI's forward dollar sale

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures as some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The one-year forward premium hit a low of 263.86 paise or 2.80?rlier in the day. 

 

Premiums were also under downward pressure as banks sold forward dollars after the RBI issued clarification on a swap facility for foreign currency non-resident deposits, external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowings. The RBI's facility for banks to raise FCNR deposits is expected to draw significant inflows of around $40 billion. "Foreign inflows are expected to resume again now after the RBI gave clarity on its swap facility, so the demand for forwards has fallen slightly," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, the fall in premiums was limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee forward premium levels, the dealer said. The rupee rose 31 paise from a low of 94.9125 a dollar Wednesday in the spot market as the central bank intervened by way of dollar sales.  

 

A fall in US treasury yields also supported premiums, dealers said. At 1327 IST, the 10-year US treasury yield was down at 4.48%, against 4.50% Tuesday.

 

At 1329 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, against Tuesday's close of 2.95%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 268.14 paise, against Tuesday's close of 279.00 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Inches up on RBI intervention; strong dlr, importer demand weigh

 

	AT 0932 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6825	94.8950	94.6400	94.9125	94.7350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased losses from early trade and rose slightly against the dollar as state-owned banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. "The rupee was not expected to fall to 94.90 (a dollar) in early trade. But as soon it touched that level, the RBI stepped in and supported the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "There is no major reason to validate the rupee's depreciation. The central bank is making sure speculators play in 94.65-94.90 (a dollar) level."  

 

However, dealers speculate that traders trimmed long dollar positions on hopes of foreign currency inflows in the market after the RBI released clarification on the swap window for foreign currency non-resident deposits, external commercial borrowings, and overseas foreign currency borrowings. Some dealers said the move by traders came after the RBI governor reiterated Wednesday that the central bank would defend the rupee to curb undue volatility in the market. 

 

However, strengthening of the dollar continued to put pressure on the Indian unit. The dollar index stayed at an over one-year high on a shift in expectations from no hikes to one or even two rate hikes by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The dollar's safe-haven status took centre stage on growing concerns about the overvaluation of AI-related stocks, which weighed on global equity markets. It is clear that the focus of the rupee has shifted from crude oil prices and the West Asia war to the dollar, dealers said. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was at 100.48, against 100.40 Tuesday.  

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of oil companies and other importers, exerting further pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. "There was a lot of bidding in the early trade, which moved the rupee to 94.90 (a dollar)," the dealer said. 

 

The Indian unit got some relief from a fall in crude oil prices as more ships started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, easing global energy supply concerns, dealers said. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $76.34 a barrel from $77.08 Tuesday. Brent crude hit a low of $75.94 a barrel Wednesday, just $5 a barrel away from pre-war prices.    

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.60-94.95 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 24

 

MUMBAI – At 1111 IST, the rupee was at 94.6825 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.8950 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.7350. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.92	94.60	94.45
Private-sector bank	95.15	94.95	94.60	94.30
Private-sector bank	95.20	95.00	94.60	94.40
Foreign bank	95.10	94.95	94.50	94.30
Brokerage firm	95.10	94.97	94.55	94.45
Brokerage firm	95.10	94.95	94.60	94.40

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as dlr index stays over 1-year high amid rate hike bets

 

	AT 0932 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8750	94.8950	94.8300	94.9125	94.7350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as the greenback continued to strengthen on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve would adopt a more hawkish stance in order to contain inflationary pressures, dealers said. The expectation of foreign currency inflows kept the rupee from falling sharply, they said. 

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars to keep the rupee from falling to 95.00 a dollar. "RBI stepped in yesterday (Tuesday) at multiple levels to provide some liquidity in the market. We may see a similar move today (Wednesday) as well as the rupee approaches Tuesday's low of 94.92," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

The dollar index closed above 101 for the first time in over a year Tuesday, exerting pressure on the Indian unit and other Asian currencies. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was at 101.40, up from 101.39 Tuesday. Concerns about the overvaluation of artificial intelligence-related stocks weighed on global equity markets again, which supported the safe-haven greenback.

 

Dealers expect foreign currency inflows to rise after the Reserve Bank of India issued clarification on its swap facility for foreign currency non-resident deposits, external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowings. 

 

The fall in crude oil prices amid easing concerns about oil supply also limited the rupee's fall. More ships have started passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifted sanctions on Iran. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $76.26 a barrel, down from $77.08 Tuesday.

 

Dealers expect banks to actively buy dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which will weigh on the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.65-94.98 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.95 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.60
Private-sector bank	95.10	94.65
Private-sector bank	95.15	94.65
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.50
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.65
Foreign bank	94.95	94.55
Brokerage firm	95.00	94.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Most fall on risk-off sentiment amid strong dlr demand

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Wednesday, weighed down by risk-off sentiment amid an overnight sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street. Concerns about the overvaluation of AI-related stocks weighed on global equity markets again, which supported the safe-haven greenback. Continuous dollar demand on expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September also put pressure on Asian units. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was at 101.40, up from 101.39 Tuesday. 

 

Crude oil prices fell as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz rose gradually, which gave some relief to Asian currencies. The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway that carries one-fifth of the world's oil. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $76.66 a barrel, down from $77.08 Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, the US and Iran were at odds over whether Tehran has allowed access to its nuclear sites for UN inspectors. After US Vice-President J.D. Vance said on Monday that Iran had agreed to let inspectors back into its nuclear sites, Iranian officials Tuesday said that their country did not make any such commitment.

 

Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said curbs on his country's missile capabilities would "never" be a part of a future peace agreement. "If we did not have our missiles, which are for our self-defence, Israel and America would have ploughed through Iran the way they did Gaza," he said at a news conference in Islamabad, Pakistan.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.2% to 1534.88 a dollar from 1531.37 Tuesday. The won fell sharply Tuesday on expectations of rate hikes by the Fed, giving an upper hand to the dollar and as foreign investors exited local stocks. 

 

The Philippine peso fell for the seventh consecutive day Wednesday and was down 0.4% at 61.41 from 61.18 Tuesday. The baht continued to depreciate for the sixth consecutive day and stayed at a one-year low Wednesday. The baht fell 0.4% to 33.32 from 33.19 Tuesday as investors awaited the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, to review the benchmark interest rate. Markets expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.00%. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit, Chinese yuan, and Taiwan dollar were broadly stable against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.6650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by  Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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