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Informist, Monday, Jun. 22, 2026

 

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--Skymet Sharma: Southwest monsoon can go below 90% long-period avg this yr 
--CONTEXT: Skymet President Sharma at webinar on El Nino's impact on crops 
--Skymet Sharma:El Nino yr typically followed by less harmful El Nino next yr 
--Skymet Sharma: 2027 southwest monsoon likely not to be that punishing 
--Skymet Sharma:See Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive in monsoon 2nd half 
--Skymet Sharma: Monsoon expected to revive in coming weeks 
--Skymet Sharma: July rains expected to be much better than June rains 
--Skymet Sharma: Dry conditions likely in mid-August 
--Skymet Sharma: Rabi crop in north India more likely at risk due to El Nino 
--Skymet Sharma: Southern India may see minimal El Nino impact on rabi crops 
--Farm expert: Palm oil crop to be hit in Indonesia, Malaysia due to El Nino 
--CONTEXT: Farm expert Sood at webinar on El Nino's impact on agriculture 
--Farm expert: See little to no sugar diversion for ethanol production next yr 
--Arcus CEO: Need 17 mln tn maize for ethanol next yr if sugar diversion is low 
--CONTEXT: Arcus Policy Research CEO Saini on El Nino's impact on agriculture 
--Arcus CEO: Food inflation seen higher in rural areas than urban on El Nino 
 

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – The southwest monsoon rainfall this year may be deficient at below 90% of the long-period, G.P. Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet, said. This is lower than the India Meteorological Department's monsoon rainfall forecast, which has predicted the rainfall at 90% of the long-period average. 

 

"It could be below even 90% also. Most of the models... which we run at this time, are hovering around 84-85% of LPA. But then we will still wait and watch," Sharma said at a webinar on El Nio and its impact on agriculture organised by All India Sugar Trade Association. 

 

Since Jun. 1, India has received deficient rainfall of 57.4 millimetres, 42?low the normal of 99.2 millimetres. But, Sharma said, monsoon rains are expected to revive, and rainfall in July will be better than in June. However, August rainfall may be more unusually erratic amid El Nio conditions. 

 

"August is notorious and known for taking monsoon breaks. Between the second and the third week of August, these breaks mostly occur... and large parts of our country go dry," Sharma said, adding that he suspects these breaks may happen more "vigorously" this August due to El Nio conditions. "The first month was spoiled, the second will be good, the third and fourth will be at a little risk," Sharma said, summarising the likely rainfall from June to September. 

 

Although rainfall in June so far has been deficient across many regions, India's kharif crop cultivation is marginally higher than last year. But, experts cautioned that these are early assessments, and kharif acreage as of July-end will provide a more reliable picture. 

 

"So if you go by the sowing data by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare, you'll be surprised to know that in kharif crop sowing, we have not contracted too much," Deepak Pareek, agriculture economist and technology strategist, said. All-India kharif acreage is 1.7% higher on year at 12.0 million hectares as of Friday, an improvement from 4% contraction as of the previous Friday.

 

"Rice has done better than last year (up 53%)... Cotton, it's a chaos (down 25%)," Pareek said. While pulse acreage has significantly caught up and recovered from the initial slow sowing trend, oilseed acreage remains disappointing. Pulse area has improved to 13% higher from a year ago, a significant jump from 43?cline as of the previous Friday. Oilseed acreage was down nearly 11% on year.

 

Farm Expert G.K. Sood said the conditions are not favourable for sugarcane cultivation. "We don't have accumulated moisture. Two inches is required (for sugarcane). Maharashtra is worse off than Madhya Pradesh." Sugarcane cultivation is 1% higher on-year as of Friday. Sood estimates sugarcane production to decline to 390 million tonnes if the Aug-Sep rainfall is poor. Last year, the crop was around 500 million tonnes, according to government estimates.

 

The latest acreage data show that maize acreage was up 7% on year, while soybean area was down 48% on year. However, Sood expects many farmers to shift from maize cultivation to soybean amid higher prices. "Corn crop may not be as good as last year, because soybeans will take back some of the land," Sood said.

 

For rabi crops, experts expect El Nio conditions to linger and impact northern India, including parts of central India, more than southern states. "If it starts now, the southwest monsoon season, the northeast monsoon, and the winter season. So, three seasons will get impacted, which will cover the rabi also," Skymet's Sharma said. 

 

"So, rise in the temperature, reduction in the rainfall, reduction in the snowfall activity, all that combined, may not sound good for the rabi crop overall, as such, for the northern parts of the country," Sharma said. Wheat and chana are major rabi crops. 

 

Although Sharma said there are indications that the Indian Ocean Dipole is turning positive in the second half of the monsoon, he was uncertain about its ability to meaningfully improve rainfall. "It can answer the monsoon rainfall, but for a short duration... But then to save us from the drought in case it is coming, that potential it does not have," he added. 

 

For 2027, Sharma said monsoon rainfall is likely to be better, as El Nio will not be "very punishing" amid a "devolving El Nio", which is considered less harmful than El Nio. "But at the same time, I do not expect it to be a bountiful rainfall even during the monsoon."

 

On inflation, experts said rural areas might see higher food prices than urban areas. "In rural areas, about 47-50% of a household budget is spent on food. So clearly, when food (price) goes up, it is just not a disruption; it changes the disposable income and the demand patterns," Shweta Saini, founder and chief executive officer, Arcus Policy Research, said. 

 

To further dent farmers' incomes, Saini sees crop yields also taking a hit due to El Nio conditions. However, she said, the gross domestic product of agriculture has historically shown resilience even during years of deficient rainfall. "So, there could be geographic pockets, spatial pockets, which would suffer, but nationally, drought and agricultural GDP have shown some resilience, but clearly, we could have pockets where the distress is going to happen," Saini said. End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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