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Informist, Monday, Jun. 22, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee snapped its six-day gaining streak and fell to a one-week low against the dollar Monday as banks aggressively bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, lower crude oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India limited the rupee's fall, they said. 

 

"The rupee was overbought last week, and it has just corrected now. There is nothing to worry about as the rupee is still (overall) in the positive zone," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Today, there were a lot of tensions arising in peace talks, and oil prices were also reacting to it. That is why the rupee fell sharply." 

 

The rupee settled at 94.6775 a dollar, down 0.4% from its previous close. The rupee moved in a wide range of 50 paise during the day. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.6% on Monday, with the Philippine peso being the worst performer, followed by the South Korean won. 

 

The rupee hit a high of 94.2500 per dollar Monday shortly after opening, as crude oil prices remained below $80 per barrel following progress reported by the US and Iran in negotiations Sunday. However, talks were strained as US President Donald Trump threatened Tehran to restart the war if it supports Lebanon with proxies. Investors worried about threats from Trump, pushing up crude oil prices and weighing on the Indian unit.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $79.14 a barrel, down from $80.57 Friday. Brent crude oil touched a high of $82.30 a barrel during the day. Prices have fallen nearly 14% since the warring countries agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last week. 

 

However, the dollar index hovered near a one-year high as the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike by the end of this year, which weighed on the Indian unit and other Asian currencies, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the index was at 100.85, flat against Friday. The index hit a high of 101.02 Monday.

 

Another key reason for the rupee's fall was importers' heavy dollar purchases, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "Once the rupee touched 94.25 (a dollar), the importers stepped in, as other factors were not really positive," the dealer at another private sector bank said. "There wasn't much action today, only importers were bidding, not much on the supply side."

 

However, the RBI likely sold dollars through state-owned banks, which limited the fall of the Indian currency. "RBI sold heavily at 94.70 (a dollar) and 94.50 (a dollar). The RBI tried its best to limit the depreciation, but the bidding was so strong that eventually the rupee touched 94.75," the dealer said. 

 

Dealers said, unlike last week, foreign inflows were muted on Monday. "It's too soon to say anything about inflows. Many banks have already given the best rates. Banks will pitch now, and it will take some time for FPI inflows to come in," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

A few dealers said that banks were awaiting clarity from the RBI on whether they can offer leveraged products that allow depositors to take loans against Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposits. A slight rise in domestic equities supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex rose 0.4?ch on Monday.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6775	94.3550	94.2500	94.7525	94.3200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	282.32	279.21	282.69	276.80	269.64

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to an over-two-week high as banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting relatively lower premium levels, dealers said. Importers also bought forward dollars fearing further depreciation of the rupee, they said.

 

A rise in the US Treasury yields limited gains for forward premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.48% from 4.46% Thursday.  

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.98% at 1530 IST, up from Friday's close of 2.86%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 282.32 paise, against 269.64 paise Friday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, with the US-Iran peace talks in focus. Market participants will track foreign fund inflows amid a slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Amid worries around the peace talks, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in dollar-rupee, which will weigh on the rupee. However, some dealers expect exporters to step in to sell dollars as the underlying sentiment remains broadly positive.

 

"Today, the rupee has fallen, but it doesn't mean the rupee will fall tomorrow (Tuesday) as well. At 94.90 (a dollar), exporters will step in," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Noting the RBI's intervention on Monday, dealers expect the central bank to continue selling dollars if the rupee comes under sharp downward pressure. They see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.90 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 95.10. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.30–94.80 against the dollar Tuesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index rises on Fed's hawkish stance

 

	AT 1441 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3222	1.3234	1.3184	1.3233
EUR/USD	1.1458	1.1474	1.1442	1.1476
NZD/USD	0.5729	0.5741	0.5719	0.5733
AUD/USD	0.6998	0.7019	0.6994	0.7007
USD/JPY	161.7140	161.7850	161.2860	161.3000
USD/CAD	1.4173	1.4193	1.4166	1.4161
EUR/JPY	185.2800	185.3800	184.8100	185.1647
CHF/USD	1.2386	1.2393	1.2356	1.2386
EUR/CHF	0.9250	0.9268	0.9250	0.9258

 

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index rises on Fed's hawkish stance

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose and remained at a one-year high for the third-consecutive day after the Federal Reserve signalled at least one rate hike before the end of this year. At 1400 IST, the index was 100.96 against 100.85 Friday. The dollar index hit a high of 101.10 Monday. 

 

However, lower crude oil prices, amid progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, limited the fall in currencies in the dollar index. At 1417 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $79.19 a barrel, down from $80.57 Friday. Brent crude oil prices have fallen nearly 14% since warring countries agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last week. The rupee also reversed its direction and rose 0.8% in the previous week.

 

However, uncertainty around the US-Iran peace deal, after threats from President Donald Trump to restart the war if Tehran did not stop its proxies in Lebanon weighed on currencies. 

 

The euro was broadly flat at $1.14 Monday. The pound sterling fell marginally amid political chaos in the UK. British PM Keir Starmer resigned Monday after coming under mounting pressure from his own Labour Party.  

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 161.59 a dollar from 161.26 Friday. The yen inched towards 40-year lows of 161.96, keeping traders on edge over possible intervention from its central bank. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that authorities were prepared to respond appropriately to currency moves at any time. 

 

The Swedish krona and Swiss franc were also marginally down against the dollar Monday. Investors await the US flash S&P Global PMI and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Inflation data due this week. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium at over 2-week high as importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1327 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6800	94.3550	94.2500	94.7175	94.3200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.32	279.21	282.70	276.80	269.64

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to an over two-week high as banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower premium levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has fallen almost 15 basis points this months. 

 

"Importers may be recreating their positions in the forward market," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "There is no one on the selling side now, that's why the market is moving one side sharply."

 

Importers also bought forward dollars fearing further depreciation of the rupee, they said. The rupee snapped a six-day winning streak and fell sharply against the dollar Monday owing to a strengthening dollar index amid growing hopes of a rate hike in the US by the end of this year. Importers' dollar purchases in the spot market also weighed heavily on the Indian unit. The rupee hit a low of 94.7500 a dollar Monday, down 0.5% from its previous close.

 

A rise in the US Treasury yields also limited gains for forward premiums, dealers said. At 1327 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.49% from 4.46% Thursday. US markets were shut Friday. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.95% at 1327 IST, up from Friday's close of 2.86%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.32 paise, against 269.64 paise Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Down sharply on importers' dlr demand; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5900	94.3550	94.2500	94.6100	94.3200

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Monday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a relatively lower dollar-rupee level, dealers said. "We are a current account-deficit country, so importers will have to always buy dollar. The volume of their buying will change, depending on the dollar-rupee levels,"a dealer at a public sector bank said. "Right now, they are bidding (dollar), but not very actively."

 

The fall in the rupee was limited as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India around 94.50 a dollar, they said. "It's holding this level, so the selling is not very aggressive. The overall sentiment is also positive, so huge support is not required," the dealer said. 

The rupee got support from falling crude oil prices amid progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, which may end the war permanently. US and Iran negotiators have made "encouraging progress" in the first day of high-level talks in Switzerland, mediators Pakistan and Qatar said Sunday. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $78.80 a barrel, down from $80.57 Friday. Brent crude oil prices have fallen nearly 14% since warring countries agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last week. The rupee has also reversed its direction and rose 0.8% in the previous week. 

 

However, a strong dollar put pressure on the Indian unit and other Asian currencies, they said. Investors flocked to the greenback after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike by the end of the year. At 1200 IST, the index was at 100.93, against 100.85 Friday. 

 

Dealers expect the foreign currency inflows in Indian markets to support the rupee later in the day. Foreign portfolio investors' holdings of state government bonds have jumped fivefold in the past two weeks after the Reserve Bank of India and the Centre announced measures to encourage FPI to invest in India. FPIs held state bonds worth INR 22.40 billion Friday, more than five times their holdings of INR 4.17 billion on Jun. 4 — the day before the Centre removed withholding and capital gains tax on FPIs' bond buys – as per data from Clearing Corp. of India. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.25-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.70 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 22

 

MUMBAI – At 1125 IST, the rupee was at 94.4500 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.3550 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.3200. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.50	94.20	94.00
Private-sector bank	94.75	94.50	94.25	94.15
Private-sector bank	94.65	94.55	94.25	94.00
Foreign bank	94.70	94.50	94.20	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.50	94.20	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.50	94.20	94.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as importers buy dlrs; progress in peace talks supports

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4550	94.3550	94.2500	94.3850	94.3200

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a relatively lower dollar-rupee level, dealers said. "If the rupee touches 94.15 (a dollar), importers are expected to step in more actively," a dealer at public sector bank said. 

 

Crude oil prices remained below $80 a barrel as the US and Iran reported progress in negotiations, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. However, the market is still cautious as the US and Iran continued to threaten each other, despite progress on the first day of high-level talks in Switzerland. "The sentiment is positive now because we can see the US and Iran talking their differences out. No escalations have happened during the weekend, which is a good sign," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August futures were down at $79.55 a barrel from $80.57 Friday as mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the US and Iran made "encouraging progress" in the first day of high-level talks in Switzerland. However, the talks were strained after US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran over its support for Hezbollah. Iran's lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US should be careful about issuing threats, and that Iranian armed forces were prepared to respond.   

 

The strengthening of the dollar put pressure on the Indian unit, as it shifted focus to the movement of the dollar index, which is at an over one-year high for three days. The dollar index rose sharply after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike by the end of this year, making the US unit an attractive investment. At 0900 IST, the index was at 100.85, flat against Friday. 

Dealers said the Indian currency may also find support from dollar inflows later in the day due to a slew of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India in early June. Banks may sell dollars on behalf of exporters, which will support the rupee further. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.10-94.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 22

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.50	94.00
Private-sector bank	94.65	94.15
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.65	94.25
Foreign bank	94.70	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.60	94.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn as dlr strengthens; lower oil prices support

 

MUMBAI – Most Asia currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Monday as investors flocked to the dollar after it strengthened to an over one-year high amid hopes of a rate hike by the end of this year. The dollar index was 100.80 at 0700 IST, slightly down from 100.85 Friday. 

    

On the West Asia war front, mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the US and Iran have made "encouraging progress" in the first day of high-level talks in Switzerland. However, the talks were strained after US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran over its support to Hezbollah. Iran's lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US should be careful about issuing threats, and that Iranian armed forces were prepared to respond.

 

According to media reports, the US and Iran have established a "de-confliction cell" to ensure an end to military operations in Lebanon. The first day of talks did not touch on the key issue of the future of Iran's nuclear programme. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August futures were down at $79.32 a barrel, from $80.57 Friday. Brent crude oil prices have stayed at $80 levels since both warring countries announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.4% to 1535 a dollar from 1529 Friday. The Malaysian ringgit fell slightly to 4.14 a dollar from 4.13 Friday. The Philippine peso also fell 0.3% to 60.80 a dollar from 60.62 Friday. Thai baht was down marginally at 32.90 a dollar from 32.82 Friday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar was marginally up against the dollar and the Chinese yuan was stable on Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.6775

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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