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Informist, Friday, Jun. 19, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased its losses and closed steady against the dollar Friday as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened by selling dollars through state-owned banks, dealers said. Foreign banks sold dollars for foreign inflows, which further supported the rupee, they said. 

"The RBI sold (dollars) around 94.50 a dollar. It was holding the level, not letting the rupee cross the 50 (94.50) level. But the selling was not really aggressive," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The Indian unit was under pressure as the dollar index was at a one-year high and the market remained cautious about the US-Iran peace deal, but it did not breach the 94.55 level, likely due to the RBI's intervention and FPI inflows, dealers said.

 

The rupee settled at 94.3200 per dollar on Friday, nearly unchanged from 94.3325 per dollar on Thursday. The Indian unit moved in a 30-paise range during the day. Asian currencies were mixed, with the South Korean won gaining 0.7% and the Malaysian ringgit falling 0.5%.  

 

The Indian currency appreciated 1.5% this week after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities in West Asia Monday. Crude oil prices fell sharply and remained near $80 a barrel this week, down from an average of $91 a barrel last week. 

 

Crude oil prices crossed $80 a barrel briefly Friday as Israel continued to strike Lebanon, which led Iran to pull out of peace talks. The US and Iran were scheduled to meet in Geneva Friday for negotiations to end the war permanently. The market turned cautious, but crude oil prices reacted little to the escalation, as the Strait of Hormuz remained open for global trade. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $79.36 a barrel, down from $79.85 Thursday.

The Indian currency was under pressure Friday as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. The Indian currency fell to a low of 94.5100 on Friday. "94.20 (a dollar) was an attractive level. Importers came in and moved the rupee to 94.50 (a dollar). RBI kept the rupee from falling further," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The dollar index remained at a one-year high for the second consecutive day, putting pressure on the Indian unit, as investors flocked to the greenback after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike before the end of this year. At 1530 IST, the index was at 100.81, marginally up from 100.80 Thursday. The dollar index hit a high of 101.21 Friday. 

 

Foreign banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, which supported the Indian unit. India has seen FPI inflows this week amid a slew of measures announced by the RBI to support the rupee and bulk up its foreign exchange reserves. FPIs net invested in the Indian market on Wednesday and $542.37 million on Tuesday. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3200	94.3500	94.2100	94.5100	94.3325
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.64	265.07	270.64	262.71	261.52

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose sharply Friday, snapping a losing streak for five consecutive days, as banks purchased forward dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee, dealers said.

 

However, the gains in forward premiums were capped as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, dealers said. Exporters have been selling forward dollars aggressively this week, as they expected the rupee to rise after the US and Iran agreed on a peace deal.  

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.86% at 1530 IST, up from Thursday's close of 2.78%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.64 paise, against 261.52 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from developments in the US-Iran peace deal, a main driver of oil prices. "Crude oil has now reached an important support zone and has shown a minor recovery, which will be closely watched by market participants. Any significant rebound in crude prices could once again become a headwind for the rupee," Jateen Trivedi, vice president, research analyst - commodity and currency of LKP Securities, said.

 

The local unit may remain supported by foreign fund inflows, they said. Dealers expect inflows amid a slew of measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital. Exporters are likely to continue selling dollars, fearing a further rise, as the underlying sentiment for the rupee remains positive.

 

However, dealers expect importers to step in and buy dollars, limiting any sharp appreciation. They see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.10 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 94.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.10-94.60 against the dollar Monday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen nears 40-yr low, dlr gains as peace talks waver

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3231	1.3234	1.3163	1.3209
EUR/USD	1.1461	1.1466	1.1418	1.1461
NZD/USD	0.5741	0.5762	0.5724	0.5750
AUD/USD	0.7019	0.7020	0.6990	0.7013
USD/JPY	161.2770	161.4570	160.9890	161.3380
USD/CAD	1.4139	1.4159	1.4134	1.4122
EUR/JPY	184.8520	185.0100	184.3030	184.9100
CHF/USD	1.2413	1.2438	1.2358	1.2426
EUR/CHF	0.9233	0.9249	0.9218	0.9220

 

India Rupee - World FX: Yen nears 40-yr low, dlr gains as peace talks waver

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained at a one-year high for the second consecutive day as investors flocked to the greenback after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike before the end of this year to contain inflation. At 1415 IST, the index was at 100.81, slightly higher than 100.80 on Thursday. The dollar index hit a high of 101.27 Friday. 

 

Crude oil prices crossed $80 a barrel briefly during the day as Israel continued to strike Lebanon, which led Iran to pull out of peace talks. The US and Iran were scheduled to meet in Geneva for negotiations to end the war permanently. The market turned cautious, but crude oil prices did not react much to the escalation as the Strait of Hormuz remained open for global trade. At 1415 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were down slightly at $79.58 a barrel from $79.85 Thursday.  

 

The euro was broadly stable at $1.14 Friday. The euro has been on a losing streak for four consecutive days and fell over 1% this week. The pound sterling was down marginally against the dollar as the Bank of England held interest rates steady at 3.75% with fresh data showing inflation holding steady. 

 

The Japanese yen neared a 40-year low against the dollar. The yen fell to 161.80 per dollar, close to 162.02, a level that would mark its weakest point since 1986. Speculative short yen positions have climbed to their highest level since July 2024, even after the central bank hiked rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995.

 

The Swiss franc fell 0.3% against the dollar and the Swedish krona was down 0.2% Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as importers buy fwd dlrs on rupee's sharp fall

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4800	94.3500	94.2100	94.3650	94.3325
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	270.14	265.07	270.64	262.71	261.52

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose sharply Friday, after falling for five consecutive days, as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further fall of the rupee, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium reversed most losses booked in five days and rose to 270.64 paise or 2.87% Friday.

 

"There was some escalation between Isreal and Lebnanon, so Iran cancelled the peace talks with the US. Importers are buying (forward dollars) because they are seeing the premiums rise further," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, the fall in forward premiums was limited as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, dealers said. Exporters have been selling forward dollars aggressively this week, as they expected the rupee to rise after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities in West Asia. 

 

The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Friday due to a slight rise in crude oil prices, which had stayed below $80 a barrel for three consecutive days, as Iran called off peace talks with the US after Israel attacked Lebanon.  

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.86% at 1327 IST, up from Thursday's close of 2.78%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 270.14 paise, against 261.52 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls on importers' dlr demand as US, Iran call off peace talks

 

	AT 1245 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4800	94.3500	94.2100	94.3650	94.3325

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who stepped in fearing further depreciation of the rupee due to uncertainty in US-Iran peace talks, dealers said. "Importers are coming in, but rupee did not fall as much as expected. There is strong support at 94.50 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

A few dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India bought dollars to boost its foreign exchange reserves and manage its short dollar forward position, which put pressure on the Indian unit. "The RBI is buying, but not aggressively for now. It will keep buying whenever there is an opportunity," the dealer said.  

 

Crude oil prices crossed $80 a barrel, a level it had been holding for four consecutive days, as Iran suspended talk with the US in Switzerland that was scheduled Friday. Iran said it would not implement clauses in the agreement until the US does, and stops attacks in Lebanon. Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon, killing around 18 people on Friday. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil prices rose slightly to $80.45 a barrel from $79.85 Thursday. "Earlier, the main global factors were positive. Now that Iran has cancelled peace talks, the market has become cautious," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

The dollar index also continued to rise, putting more pressure on the rupee, as investors hope for a hike in interest rates after the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance. The dollar index touched a high of 101.27 Friday. At 1245 IST, the index was at 100.90, higher than 100.81 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.20-94.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 19

 

MUMBAI – At 1149 IST, the rupee was at 94.4650 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.3500 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.3325. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.60	94.30	94.20
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.60	94.25	94.15
Public-sector bank	94.65	94.55	94.25	94.05
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.60	94.20	94.10
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.60	94.20	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.75	94.30	94.20

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares most gains on importers' dlr demand; exporters sales aid

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3200	94.3500	94.2100	94.3650	94.3325

 

MUMBAI – The rupee pared most gains as banks bought dollars for importers, noting a sharp rise in the rupee, dealers said. "Importers were expected to step in at 94.20 a dollar, mostly oilers, and now they reversed direction," a dealer at a private sector bank said. However, exporters' dollar sales keep the rupee from falling, they said. 

 

The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade as sentiment for the rupee remains positive amid lower crude oil prices and improving foreign exchange inflows in the market, dealers said. The Indian unit touched a high of 94.2100 a dollar Friday. However, the strong dollar continued to put pressure on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Crude oil prices stayed below $80 per barrel for the fourth consecutive day as the US and Iran agreed to end hostilities in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command said it lifted its blockade on Iranian ports as Tehran said its Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been charged with issuing permits for commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. At 0920 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was down slightly at $79.20 a barrel from $79.85 Thursday.

 

The dollar index remained at a one-year high for the second consecutive day after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike before the end of this year. At 0920 IST, the index was at 100.92, higher than 100.80 Thursday. The dollar index hit a high of 100.91 Thursday.

 

Foreign investors infusing funds into Indian bonds and the slowdown of their exit from domestic equities has helped the rupee appreciate, dealers said. FPIs' interest in Indian markets stemmed from a slew of measures rolled out by the Reserve Bank of India to support the rupee and bulk up foreign exchange reserves. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.10-94.60 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.10 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 19

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.10
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.05
Private-sector bank	94.55	94.00
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.10
Foreign bank	94.80	94.10
Brokerage firm	94.70	94.00
Brokerage firm	94.60	94.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as oil stays below $80/bbl but dlr at 1-yr high

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note in early trade Friday as crude oil prices stayed below $80 a barrel after the US-Iran deal came into effect. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were down slightly at $79.18 a barrel from $79.85 Thursday. Crude oil prices have stayed below $80 a barrel since Tuesday, when both countries agreed to end hostilities in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

US Vice-President J.D. Vance said the 60-day negotiating period had begun after the interim agreement was signed by both countries' presidents. The US Central Command said it lifted its blockade on Iranian ports as Tehran said its Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been charged with issuing permits for commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

 

The dollar index remained at a one-year high for the second consecutive day, weakening Asian currencies, as investors flocked to the greeenback after the Federal Reserve signalled a rate hike before the end of this year, with an aim to contain inflation. At 0700 IST, the index was at 100.81, higher than 100.80 Thursday. The dollar index hit a high of 100.91 Thursday. 

 

The South Korean won rose marginally to 1537.28 a dollar from a two-week low of 1538.86 Thursday. The won came under pressure from ongoing portfolio rebalancing flows and steady demand for the US unit across regional markets. 

 

The Malayasia ringgit and Thai baht were broadly stable against the dollar Friday. The Philippine peso continued its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day and fell to a one-week low of 60.66 a dollar from 60.54 Thursday. Meanwhile, the Philippines' central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points for ‌a second time in a row on Thursday, leaving room for further tightening as the risk of high inflation remains.

 

The Taiwan dollar snapped a three-day losing streak and rose 0.2% to 31.06 a dollar from 31.66 Thursday as the country's central bank raised its growth outlook for the year amid an AI boom, while leaving the policy interest rate unchanged at 2%.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell to a one-week low of 17821 a dollar Thursday from 17748 Wednesday even as its central bank raised interest rates again by 25 basis points to 5.75% to support the rupiah Thursday. This is the third rate hike by the central bank since the West Asia war began. However, the rupiah recovered after it fell to an all-time low of 18166 a dollar on Jun. 8.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.3200

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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