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Informist, Friday, Jun. 19, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The southwest monsoon trough has remained in the same position for the past few days, with the western arm stationary over Harnai and Solapur in Maharashtra since Jun. 8 and the eastern arm stuck over Muzaffarpur in Bihar since Jun. 12. The rainfall deficit over India is growing rapidly, and is likely to widen further as the progress of the monsoon is expected to be sluggish for the next five to seven days, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said.

 

In the beginning phase of the monsoon onset, the trough is pushed over the Indian mainland by cross-equatorial winds. The further advancement of the trough under the influence of this factor is limited to the extreme southern parts of the country and the Bay of Bengal islands. In order for the monsoon trough to move further, triggers are required from both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, the weather agency said.

 

Typically, weather systems which form over the Bay of Bengal are the biggest influences on the monsoon trough, carrying it forward over the country's mainland. So far, however, effective weather systems have neither formed over the Bay of Bengal, nor over the Arabian Sea. 

 

Around 66% of the country's area is either rain deficient or facing a large rain deficit. Central parts of the country are worst hit, with the shortfall in showers ranging between 70% and 80%, the weather agency said. Western disturbances and the upper-air weather systems associated with them have kept the northwestern parts of the country wet and humid, causing regular spells of pre-monsoon showers and maintaining near-normal rainfall over the region. However, pre-monsoon activity over the region is likely to pause in the last week of June, the agency said.

 

There are feeble indications of a sea-borne circulation entering the Bay of Bengal from the direction of Myanmar on or after Jun. 25. However, this is a tentative development, and there are no confirmed forecasts of a major system formation yet. The monsoon trough's advancement could remain slow, or make no progress at all in the next five to seven days, the weather agency said.

 

As such, the rainfall deficit during June is likely to cross 40% shortly, and could climb to 50% by the end of the month, the weather agency said.  End 

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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