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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 18, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a six-week high against the dollar Thursday as banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows and exporters, dealers said. Lower crude oil prices amid the US-Iran interim agreement also helped the Indian currency rise for the fifth consecutive day.

 

Some dealers said a portion of the foreign fund inflows was due to HDFC Bank raising $750 million through a five-year senior unsecured bond issue via its Gujarat International Finance Tec-City IFSC banking unit. Some dealers said there were total foreign inflows of over $2 billion Thursday.

 

However, banks continued to buy dollars for importers, noting the sharp appreciation of the rupee, which led to the Indian unit erasing some gains, dealers said. "The appreciation will not sustain, because importers will keep buying at dips (in dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance at the monetary policy meeting Wednesday strengthened the dollar, which also weighed on the Indian unit. 

 

The rupee settled at 94.3325 a dollar Thursday, 0.2% higher from its previous close. The Indian currency moved in a wide range of 54 paise during the day. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1-1% Thursday, with the Malaysian ringgit being the worst performer.

 

The Indian rupee started the day on a weak note as the dollar index rose to an over one-year high after the US Federal Reserve signalled a possible interest-rate hike before the year-end, even as it kept rates unchanged. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that policymakers are committed to bringing back inflation to the Fed's 2% target. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.78, up from 100.38 Wednesday.  

 

Foreign banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, which supported the Indian unit. "A huge chunk of $750 million from HDFC Bank hit the market today. That is why there was a sudden spike in the rupee during the day," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

HDFC Bank's offshore fundraising was one of the largest by an Indian bank this year and the first such issuance since the Reserve Bank of India operationalised its concessional hedging window for overseas borrowings by banks. Other banks, including State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Bank of India, are expected to tap international debt markets in the coming days.

 

The RBI had introduced a concessional swap facility for overseas foreign currency borrowings by banks to attract foreign capital. Under this facility, the RBI will undertake swaps at a fixed rate of 1.5% per annum for eligible offshore foreign-currency borrowings with a minimum maturity of three years. The window will remain open until Dec. 31.

 

The Indian unit got further support from falling crude oil prices, which are nearing pre-war levels, as the US and Iranian presidents signed a deal Thursday to end hostilities in West Asia and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $78.50 a barrel, down from $79.55 Wednesday. Crude oil prices hit a low of $77.10 a barrel during the day. 

 

The Indian rupee saw volatile trading moves as a tug-of-war situation emerged between dollar sales by exporters and dollar purchases by importers. Banks sold dollars for exporters, who feared a further rise of the Indian unit, dealers said. "Exporters will definitely sell (dollars), because the rupee is expected to be in the 92.50-94.50 range for this year. So, it is a good time for exporters to make the most (of these levels)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

However, importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively low dollar-rupee levels, purchased dollars, limiting the rupee's gains, dealers said. "There was nothing negative as such, except the Fed's hawkish stance. Importers are buying at every dip, so it is difficult for the rupee to breach 94.00 soon," the dealer said. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee. Thursday, Nifty 50 and Sensex closed 0.3% higher each. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3325	94.6600	94.1700	94.7075	94.5250
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	261.52	260.52	262.41	258.52	263.29

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended largely steady as banks' dollar sales for forward delivery on behalf of exporters were offset by forward dollar purchases on behalf of importers, dealers said. 

 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit an over-one-week low of 2.74% during the day as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who feared a further rise in the rupee, dealers said. A fall in US treasury yields also supported forward premiums, they said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 4.46% from 4.48% Wednesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.78%, against Wednesday's close of 2.77%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 261.52 paise, against 263.29 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid developments related to the peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. "The peace deal has become old news now. But if crude falls more, the rupee may move to 94.10 a dollar, which is a strong resistance level. Breaking 94.00 is difficult as importers will come in," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The local unit may remain supported by foreign fund inflows, they said. Dealers expect inflows amid a slew of measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital. Exporters are likely to continue selling dollars, fearing a further rise, as the underlying sentiment for the rupee is positive now, dealers said. 

 

However, dealers expect importers to step in at every dip in dollar-rupee, limiting any sharp appreciation. They see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.10 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 94.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.10-94.50 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index above 100 as Fed signals rate hike this yr

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3236	1.3325	1.3235	1.3284
EUR/USD	1.1475	1.1528	1.1475	1.1503
NZD/USD	0.5765	0.5799	0.5764	0.5763
AUD/USD	0.7012	0.7041	0.7008	0.7014
USD/JPY	160.7460	160.7960	160.4800	160.5160
USD/CAD	1.4124	1.4125	1.4095	1.4102
EUR/JPY	184.4700	185.1980	184.3010	184.5700
CHF/USD	1.2459	1.2529	1.2458	1.2500
EUR/CHF	0.9210	0.9222	0.9194	0.9195

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained above 100 after touching an 11-week high Wednesday as the Federal Reserve signalled a possible interest-rate hike before the year-end. The Fed kept rates unchanged but its latest projections showed that nine of 19 officials noted at least one rate rise by year-end from none in March. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that policy makers are committed to bringing back inflation to the Fed's 2.00% target. At 1430 IST, the index rose to 100.45 from 100.38 Wednesday. 

 

A better-than-expected US macroeconomic data, released Thursday, also weighed on major currencies. US retail sales for May surged by 0.9% on month, exceeding Reuters estimates of a 0.6% gain. 

 

Meanwhile, the fall in crude oil prices, owing to positive developments on the West Asia war front, supported the major currencies. US and Iranian presidents signed an interim agreement to end hostilities in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 1423 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $77.73 a barrel, down from $79.55 Wednesday. 

 

The euro fell sharply to an 11-week low to $1.15 from $1.16 Wednesday due to hawkish Federal Reserve policy shifts. The pound sterling fell to an over two-month low to $1.33 from $1.34 Wednesday, falling the most among currencies in the dollar index basket. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in the three months through April, down from 5% in March. Investors keep a close watch on Bank of England monetary policy meeting later Thursday. The market expects the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 160.57 from 160.31 Thursday. The Canadian dollar fell sharply by 0.6% and the Australian dollar was marginally down against the dollar Thursday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums down as banks sell forward dollars for exporters

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4300	94.6600	94.2000	94.7075	94.5250
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.91	260.52	260.96	258.52	263.29

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who feared further rise of the rupee, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit an over one-week low of 2.74% or 258.52 paise Thursday. 

 

The rupee touched a six-week high of 94.1700 against the dollar in the spot market, owing to a sharp fall in crude oil prices due to the US-Iran peace deal, inflows from foreign portfolio investors, and dollar sales by exporters, dealers said. 

Crude oil prices continued to fall, nearing pre-war levels, as the US and Iranian presidents signed a deal to end hostilities in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully. At 1335 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $77.84 a barrel, down from $79.55 Tuesday. Crude oil prices hit a low of $77.10 a barrel Thursday.

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, said dealers. "Yesterday, buying (dollars) was muted, but today, there is huge buying demand from importers, mostly oilers," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

At 1335 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.75%, lower than Wednesday's close of 2.77%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.91 paise, against 263.29 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares gains on importers' demand; FPI, exporters' dlr sales aid

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4300	94.6600	94.2000	94.7075	94.5250

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains as importers stepped in, noting the sharp rise of the rupee, dealers said. "There is good buying volumes from importers, mostly oilers (oil companies), as crude remained lower," the dealer said. 

 

The rupee rose sharply against the dollar during the day as dealers speculated that banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. This surge in FPI interest stemmed from widespread market speculation that Indian government bonds will soon be included in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. "Private banks and some public sector banks are selling at good volume. But not sure where the selling is from, could inflows in bonds," a dealer at a private bank said. The rupee touched an over six-week high of 94.20 a dollar Thursday.

 

The rupee also received support from foreign banks, which sold dollars for exporters, fearing further appreciation of the rupee, they said. The banks have sold more than $2 billion so far Thursday, which moved the rupee by 20 paise, they said. "If the rupee breached 94.20 levels, then 94.00 is a good possibility for the day," a dealer at another priacte sector bank said.

A fall in crude oil prices also continued to boost the Indian currency, they said. Brent crude oil prices were just $5 a barrel away from reaching Feb. 27 levels, a day before the West Asia war broke out. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil futures for August fell to $77.69 a barrel from $79.55 Wednesday. Crude oil prices started falling after the US and Iranian presidents signed an interim agreement to end hostilities in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.10-94.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 18

 

MUMBAI – At 1056 IST, the rupee was at 94.4700 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.6600 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.5250. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.80	94.35	94.25
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.80	94.40	94.30
Public-sector bank	94.95	94.80	94.40	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.70	94.40	94.30
Brokerage firm	95.00	94.80	94.30	94.20
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.75	94.30	94.15

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises on exporters' dlr sales, Fed's hawkish stance weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.4175	94.6600	94.3925	94.7075	94.5250

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as some banks sold dollars for exporters, noting relatively higher dollar-rupee levels in early trade, dealers said. "The market is unpredictable. The rupee will move where there is more flow. Right now, importers and exporters are both there," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit opened lower Thursday as the dollar rallied after the Federal Reserve moved in favour of a rate hike by the end of 2026, even as it held interest rates steady Wednesday, dealers said.

 

The dollar index crossed 100 Wednesday as investors flocked to the greenback in a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed's hawkish stance. The index remained above 100, but fell slightly Thursday. At 0915 IST, the index fell to 100.24 from 100.39 Wednesday, but higher than 99.54 Tuesday. "Rupee is following dollar movement after long time now. If dollar crosses 100.6 (high on Mar. 31), we will see the rupee falling further to 94.80" a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

However, a fall in crude oil prices amid positive developments on the West Asia war front supported the Indian unit, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices for August futures fell to $78.24 a barrel, from $79.55 Wednesday.

 

The US and Iranian presidents signed an interim deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making it effective immediately. The deal included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a $300 billion plan for Iran's "reconstruction", and the US terminating "all types of sanctions" on Iran. But, the key issue on future of Iran's nuclear programe, the main reason that the US started war, was deferred to a 60-day negotiation period. 

 

Dealers said oil companies and other importers bought dollars, noting lower oil prices, putting pressure on the rupee. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.30-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical reistance for the rupee at 94.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 18

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.35
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.60
Foreign bank	94.90	94.50
Brokerage firm	94.90	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; oil below $80/bbl aids, Fed's stance weighs

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note as the dollar index crossed 100 for first time since Mar. 31 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signalled increasing support for rate hikes later this year. Half the FOMC members projected at least one rate hike in 2026, while the central bank sharply raised its inflation forecasts amid the impact on the economy from the West Asia war. The dollar index was at 100.24 at 0715 IST, down from 100.39 Wednesday but up from 99.54 Tuesday. 

 

Meanwhile, the US and Iranian presidents signed an interim agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US official also disclosed the text of the deal, which included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, outlining a $300 billon plan for Iran's reconstruction and at least a temporary lift on restrictions on Iran's oil exports. But it would push talks about Iran's nuclear programme into a 60-day negotiation period. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery fell to $78.40 a barrel from $79.55 Wednesday. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit fell sharply by 0.5% to 4.08 a dollar. The ringgit fell the most among Asian peers.

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.3% to 60.55 a dollar from 60.40. The Thai baht rose 0.3% to 32.63 from 32.71 a dollar. The Taiwan dollar rose to 31.58 a dollar from 31.63 and the Chinese yuan was just marginally down against the greenback on Thursday. The South Korean won rose 0.3% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.3325

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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