More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Jun. 18, 2026

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story

--S&P Global Chugh:Mkts calmer; worst-case scenario of US-Iran war now easing 
--CONTEXT: Comments by S&P Global SSEA Credit MD Geeta Chugh at an event 
--S&P Global Chugh: Could take 2-6 mos for situation to ease post peace pact 
--S&P Global Chugh: Asia may face higher energy prices than US, Europe
--S&P Global Chugh: Supply from Asia in last 3 months 75% lower than usual 
--S&P Global Chugh:Concentrated LPG sourcing from W Asia supply risk for Asia 
--S&P Global Chugh:Concentrated LPG sourcing from W Asia supply risk for Asia 
--S&P Global Chugh: Indonesian rupiah, INR top 2 worst hit in Asia by war
--S&P Global Chugh:Govt revenue may be hit if fuel excise duty cut structural
--S&P Global Chugh: Agreement between US, Iran is fragile 
--S&P Global:Supply disruption can materially weaken corporate credit quality
--S&P Global Chugh: Sharp deleveraging helping cos curb more stress amid war
--S&P Global Chugh: See some pain points for small, medium cos due to war 
--S&P Global Chugh: India inflation may rise significantly because of El Nino
--S&P Global Ravi: Petrochemical cos affected most by West Asia war 
--CONTEXT: Comments by S&P Global ED Ravi Narayanaswamy at an event 
--S&P Global Ravi: Can't be sure everything is back to normal in West Asia 
--S&P Global Ravi:Will take 6 mos to reach 80% of pre-war oil flows in W Asia
--S&P Global Etebari: Spot LNG not up at levels when Ukraine war broke out
--CONTEXT: Comments by S&P Global LNG analyst Mehrun Etebari at an event 
--S&P Global Yang: See energy price pressure building in India 
--CONTEXT: Comments by S&P Global's renewables research chief Jenny Yang 
--S&P Global Ling: West Asian economies have been resilient, nimble 
--S&P Global Ling: W Asia countries see need to rely less on Strait of Hormuz 
--S&P Global Ravi: India building required petrochemical capacity 
--S&P Global Yang: India can explore tech to use coal for longer sustainably 
 

 

MUMBAI – Supply of energy products such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas may normalise to pre-war levels by the early months of 2027 after the 60-day ceasefire between US and Iran ends, but only if the "fragile" peace pact between the two warring nations holds, experts at S&P Global Energy concurred at the firm's Mumbai Energy Briefing held here on Thursday.

 

There are significant operational constraints that will affect how long the Strait of Hormuz takes to open up and for flows to revert to pre-war level, experts said. Important challenges include fixing the damaged infrastructure, resolving shipping insurance constraints, as well as the high level of risk aversion which is expected to ease only over a period of time.

 

However, the worst-case fear that the war could be a prolonged, multi-year issue seems to be receding significantly and markets are easing, Geeta Chugh, sectoral lead of financial institutions rating at S&P Global, said.

 

"We are now focusing on not just the fact whether the strip will open, but even when it opens, how it will open, how durable it will be, how full it will be. And those are the factors that will significantly influence over the next few months how the energy supply situation resolves itself," Chug said. Asia may face higher energy prices than the US and Europe, she said. Asian countries have been able to secure some supply of energy, but these have come at a significant premium.

 

The war in West Asia pushed crude oil prices to as high as $120 per barrel at the peak. However, they have now reverted to around $80 per barrel following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.  More

 

Concentrated liquified peterolem gas sourcing from West Asia poses supply risks to Asia. "A big consequence of this has been that across the board for Asian countries, we are expecting, we have seen that the current account deficits have widened," Chug said.

 

Governments have been absorbing some of the pain to insulate corporates and end-consumers, and that is coming at the cost of higher fiscal deficit in each of these countries. "A few new projects which are being planned in Qatar will help with the supply but that's still going to be a significant amount of supply which will be out of the market for a longer period of time, Chug said.

 

Asian currencies took a heavy beating because of the war in the Persian Gulf, given their heavy dependence on imports to meet energy needs. Among them, the Indonesian rupiah and the ruppee were two hit the worst.

 

The Indian government undertook a slew of measures to ease the burden faced by consumers due to rising prices of fuel. While state-run oil marketing companies eventually ended up hiking prices of petrol and diesel in a staggered manner within days, the Centre initially cut excise duty charged on these fuels.

 

According to S&P Global, the Indian government's revenue base could be weakened if these excise duty cuts become strctural. Excise duties form about 10% of the government's tax revenue. These measures may have acted as a hedge against inflation, but they can come with a high fiscal cost, they said.

 

S&P Global expects the Indian government's expenditure to increase significantly this financial year. It would be a challenge for the Centre to meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP if fertiliser subsidies balloon, S&P Global said.

 

"There will be added fiscal strains from the energy shock but we do not expect it to afect the sovereign credit rating of India," S&P Global said. India is currently rated 'BBB' with a stable outlook.

 

Forecasters have predicted a poor monsoon season for India this year because of the formation of El Nino, which is likely to create a monsoon deficit. This has the potential to increase India's inflation print significantly, S&P Global said. 

 

For Indian corporates, the sharp deleveraging they undertook after 2020 have helped deal with the stress created by the war, the firm said. Indian lenders may face some pressure as small and medium enterprises could face limited pain from the war. 

 

Petrochemical companies have been the worst affected because of the war in West Asia, according to S&P Global. This is partly because of the disruption in energy supplies, it said.  End

 

Reported by Anand JC and Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.