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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off the day's high against the dollar Wednesday as banks bought dollars for importers following reports that Iran fired multiple drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, despite a deal with the US to end all hostilities, dealers said.

 

"This news created some panic buying (of dollars) in the market. Importers may have thought it is good for them to buy as many dollars possible as of now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. However, a fall in crude oil below $80 a barrel and exporters' dollar sales kept the rupee from falling.

 

After hitting a high of 94.2900 a dollar, the rupee settled at 94.5250 a dollar Wednesday, up slightly from Tuesday's close of 94.5600. The Indian currency moved 31 paise during the day. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the greenback, with the South Korean won being the worst performer.

 

The rupee started the day on a positive note as Brent crude oil fell below $80 a barrel, dealers said. Crude oil prices continued to fall for the fifth day, dropping over 13% since Thursday. Brent crude oil fell below $80 a barrel Tuesday, the first time since early March, and was just slightly away from pre-war levels. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $79.16 a barrel, up from $78.96 Tuesday but down from $83.17 Monday. 

 

The Indian currency moved in a tight range of 15 paise for most of the day. However, it came under pressure and started retreating as importers' demand for dollars rose amid a fresh wave of tensions in West Asia that raised doubts about the future of the fragile US-Iran agreement for a peace deal, dealers said.

 

"Importers were absent for most of the day but came in during the last leg and moved the rupee by almost 10 paise, because they expect rupee to depreciate amid tensions in West Asia," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The rupee fell to 94.6000 a dollar during the day.

 

Israel attacked Lebanon Tuesday, killing four people, after which Iran warned of a "harsh response" if such attacks continue. US President Donald Trump slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he had to be "more responsible" in Lebanon.

 

Exporters' dollar sales through foreign banks supported the rupee, dealers said. Exporters sold dollars fearing further appreciation of the rupee, they said. "Today, the overall liquidity was very low, but exporters were more than importers in early trade," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
 

A slight rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee, according to dealers. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex closed 0.4% and 0.5% higher, respectively.

 

The dollar index rose slightly ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, due after market hours Wednesday. Investors will keep an eye on the Fed's commentary on inflation outlook, economic growth projections, interest rate trajectory. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was 99.62, against 99.54 Tuesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5250	94.4550	94.2900	94.6000	94.5600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.29	261.36	265.79	260.93	266.75

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell to an eight-day low as banks sold dollars for forward delivery in early trade on behalf of exporters who feared the rupee would rise rise, dealers said. However, the fall in premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who expected the  rupee to fall further amid renewed escalation in tensions in West Asia towards the end of rupee trading hours, they said. The fall in crude oil prices also prompted importers to buy forward dollars.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, down from Tuesday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.29 paise, against 266.75 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in crude oil prices as rising tension in West Asia threatens to derail the fragile agreement for a peace deal between the US and Iran. "Market will be very volatile tomorrow (Thursday). Nothing can be said now. If there are more escalations, the rupee is likely to give away some gains of this week," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Dealers expect the rupee to test 95.00 a dollar if the peace deal fails to reach the table Friday.

 

The local currency will also take cues from movement in the dollar index as investors await the Fed's decision on interest rates, they said. "It is expected that the Fed will hold rates, but if they surprise with a rate hike, the rupee will depreciate slightly by 10-15 paise," a dealer said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars actively, fearing depreciation of the rupee. However, exporters may take a step back and wait for the situation in West Asia to unfold, they said. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.80 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.40-94.80 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index tad higher ahead of Fed policy decision

 

	AT 1431 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3415	1.3436	1.3408	1.3430
EUR/USD	1.1601	1.1617	1.1598	1.1607
NZD/USD	0.5818	0.5836	0.5813	0.5823
AUD/USD	0.7060	0.7072	0.7054	0.7067
USD/JPY	160.2150	160.4440	160.1180	160.4180
USD/CAD	1.4000	1.4008	1.3963	1.3988
EUR/JPY	185.8720	186.3178	185.7720	186.1820
CHF/USD	1.2626	1.2643	1.2606	1.2601
EUR/CHF	0.9187	0.9211	0.9181	0.9208

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, due after market hours Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. They will, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Fed's commentary on inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts. However, gains in dollar index were limited as the dollar's safe-haven demand faded slightly amid optimism in the market due to the US-Iran peace deal. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was at 99.60, against 99.54 Tuesday.

 

Brent crude oil prices have fallen sharply from the highs during the war, and have come close to pre-war levels, which supported the currencies in the index. Brent crude oil for August delivery was $78.99 a barrel, against $78.96 Tuesday and $83.17 Monday. Brent crude oil was $72.87 a barrel on Feb. 27, just before the war started. 

 

The euro rose marginally to $1.16 a dollar from $1.15 Tuesday. The pound sterling was also up slightly as inflation in the UK was steady at 2.8% in May, slightly below expectations, data released on Wednesday showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the annual inflation rate to rise to 3% in May. 

 

The Japanese yen and Canadian dollar rose slightly against the dollar Wednesday. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc rose 0.5% and 0.3% against the dollar, respectively.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as exporters sell fwd dlrs fearing rupee's rise

 

	AT 1335 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3600	94.4550	94.2900	94.4725	94.5600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	262.79	261.36	265.79	260.93	266.75

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who feared a further rise of the rupee, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a one-week low of 2.75% or 260.93 paise Wednesday. 

 

The Indian unit in the spot market has appreciated 0.8% against the dollar since Friday, owing to a sharp fall in crude oil prices due to the US-Iran peace deal, dealers said. "Crude is trading below $80 (a barrel), and likely to reach pre-war levels soon if everything on the global front goes well," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

Crude oil prices continued to fall for the fifth-consecutive day, dropping nearly 14% as the US and Iran agreed to end hostilities in West Asia and re-open the Strait of Hormuz fully. Iranian oil tankers have resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to media reports. At 1335 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $78.29 a barrel, down from $78.96 Tuesday and $83.17 Monday. Crude oil prices hit a low of $77.75 a barrel Wednesday.

 

A fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers but in much less volume compared with other days as they expect the Indin unit to strengthen further, said dealers. "There was some oil buying in the market at 94.30 a dollar, but they subsided later," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

At 1335 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 262.79 paise, against 266.75 paise Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases some gains on importers' dlr demand; fall in oil supports

 

	AT 1215 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3600	94.4550	94.2900	94.4725	94.5600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who remained cautious about key issues in the US-Iran peace deal, such as the future of Iran's nuclear programme, US sanctions, Tehran's frozen assets, which have been deferred to further negotiations, dealers said.  "The importers are hedging normally now. When the rupee crosses a crucial level like 94.00 a dollar, we may see importers buying in panic mode," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The rupee got a boost as crude oil prices continued to fall for the fifth consecutive day, dropping over 13% since Thursday. Brent crude oil fell below $80 a barrel Tuesday, the first time since early March, and was just $6 away from pre-war levels. Brent crude oil was at $72.87 a barrel on Feb. 27, a day before the war in West Asia began. At 1150 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $78.90 a barrel, down from $78.96 Tuesday and $83.17 Monday. 

Dealers said banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters, who feared further rise in the rupee, which supported the Indian unit. "Exporters' volume is higher than importers today (Wednesday) as they are expecting the rupee to appreciate further amid positive sentiment in the market," the dealer said. 

 

Dealers expect the rupee to move in a tight range until Friday, when the deal between the US and Iran will be signed in Geneva and its details are expected to be released. 

 

However, the market is still jittery as Israel's strikes on Lebanon renew fears of further escalation in West Asia. Iran warned Israel of a harsh response if its strikes continue. US President Donald Trump also slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he had to be "more responsible" in Lebanon.     

 

The dollar index rose slightly ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, due after market hours Wednesday. Investors will keep an eye on the Fed's commentary on inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts, which will impact the dollar and emerging currencies. At 1215 IST, the dollar index was at 99.57, against 99.54 Tuesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.20-94.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 17

 

MUMBAI – At 1112 IST, the rupee was at 94.4450 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.4550 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.5600. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.70	94.55	94.30	94.10
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.50	94.30	94.20
Foreign bank	94.70	94.50	94.25	94.10
Brokerage firm	94.70	94.50	94.30	94.15
Brokerage firm	94.97	94.87	94.37	94.07

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as crude falls below $80/bbl on US-Iran peace deal

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.3350	94.4600	94.2900	94.4550	94.5600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices fell below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than three months. Brent crude oil prices have fallen $13 since Friday, when news of a peace deal between the US and Iran emerged, and is now well below wartime highs. 

 

Iranian oil tankers have resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as per media reports, signalling easing of tensions in the waters. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $78.53 a barrel, down from $78.96 Tuesday and $83.17 Monday.  

 

However, the market is still cautious as Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Iran warned Israel of a harsh response if its strikes continue. US President Donald Trump also slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he had to be "more responsible" in Lebanon. Additionally, key issues such as the future of Iran's nuclear programme, US sanctions, and the release of Tehran's frozen assets are deferred in the peace talks, which is keeping the market jittery.

However, market participants expect gains for the Indian currency to be limited, as importers may buy dollars, given the relatively low dollar-rupee levels. Importers' activity may be sluggish as they see the rupee appreciating further amid positive global cues, dealers said. "Keep a watch at these levels. Importers may come in actively from 94.30 (a dollar), and will take the rupee back to 94.40-94.45 levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said.  

 

Dealers said exporters sold dollars, fearing further appreciation of the rupee, which supported the Indian unit. They expect the rupee to test 94.25 a dollar, but bounce back later due to importers' demand for dollars.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.15-94.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.25 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 17

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.70	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.50	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.10
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.35
Foreign bank	94.60	94.15
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.35
Brokerage firm	94.70	94.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Flat as oil below $80/bbl; Israel strike raises tension

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as crude oil prices fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than three months, but continued hostilities in Lebanon kept markets jittery. Israel attacked Lebanon Tuesday, killing four people. US President Donald Trump slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he had to be "more responsible" in Lebanon and that Trump was unhappy with him. 

 

Iran accused Israel of violating the truce in Lebanon 84 times since the memorandum of understanding was signed between Tehran and the US and warned of a "harsh response" if attacks continue. Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that any agreement with the US must include the release of frozen Iranian assets, sanctions relief, and Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon.

 

Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $79.17 a barrel, against $78.96 Tuesday and $83.17 Monday. Brent crude oil prices have fallen sharply from the highs during the war, and have come close to pre-war levels. Brent crude oil prices were $72.87 a barrel on Feb. 27, just before the war started.  

 

Market participants will watch out for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. The dollar index fell slightly ahead of US' Fed meeting. The index was at 99.52, down from 99.54 Tuesday.  

 

The South Korean won was 0.3% lower at 1512.93 from 1508.46 Tuesday as foreign investors continue to exit Korean stocks. The Philippine peso and Thai baht were broadly steady against the dollar Wednesday. The Malaysian ringgit, the Taiwan dollar and the Chinese yuan were also steady against the dollar Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.5250

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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