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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee may surge against the dollar Wednesday as Brent crude oil prices fell below $80 a barrel Tuesday, the first time since Mar. 2. Brent crude oil prices are well below wartime highs and have fallen by $11 since last Thursday. The Brent crude contract for August delivery rose slightly to $79.09 a barrel from $78.96 Tuesday. 

The rupee is likely to open around 94.45-94.50 a dollar Wednesday after it closed at a five-week high of 94.5600 Tuesday. The Indian unit is expected to move in a range of 94.20-94.60 against the dollar during the day. 

Brent crude oil was a tad up on Wednesday as continued hostilities in Lebanon kept markets jittery. Israel attacked Lebanon on Tuesday, killing four people. Iran warned Israel of a "harsh response" if attacks continue. US President Donald Trump slammed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he had to be "more responsible" in Lebanon.  

Further, Asian currencies were steady against the dollar as market sentiment remained optimistic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war even as Israel attacked Lebanon, raising chances of escalation. Meanwhile, Iranian oil tankers have resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as per media reports.   

However, dealers expect importers to continue stepping in to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which may limit gains for the Indian currency. "The importers are expected to come in actively at around 94.30 (a dollar), that is a good level," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

Dealers expect foreign banks to sell dollars, likely on behalf of exporters, who fear a further rise in the rupee. Hopes of foreign fund inflows, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's measures, are likely to support the rupee, they said. 

Market participants will watch out for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision late Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. They will keep an eye on the Fed's commentary on inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts, which will impact the dollar and emerging currencies.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium is expected to be volatile as dealers expect premiums to follow the rupee's appreciation in the spot market and fall sharply. However, banks may buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower premium levels, limiting the fall for premiums, dealers said.

A fall in US Treasury yields owing to optimism around a peace deal in West Asia may also support premiums, they said.

On an annualised basis, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward contract is seen at 2.80-2.85% Wednesday. On Tuesday, it settled at 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium ended at 266.75 paise. 

End

US$1 = INR 94.56

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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