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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar for the third consecutive day as crude oil prices fell and remained at an over three-month low following the peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. Dollar sales by some exporters and foreign fund inflows also supported the Indian unit, they said.

 

However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as some banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. A fall in crude oil prices also prompted oil importers to buy dollars, they said. 

 

The Indian unit settled at 94.5600 per dollar on Tuesday, almost 0.2% higher than the previous close, and its highest closing level since May 8. The Indian unit hit a high of 94.4900 a dollar during the day. Most Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.5% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer Tuesday.

 

Market participants expected the Indian unit to remain volatile, since critical issues such as the future of Iran's nuclear program and US sanctions seem to have been deferred in the US-Iran peace deal, dealers said. 

 

The rupee rose in early trade as crude oil prices fell toward the key $80-a-barrel mark after US President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran has been "signed" and that the Strait of Hormuz will be completely open by Friday. "Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz. They are going along the Southern 'Highway,' which is totally safe, secure, and pristine," he said in a post on Truth Social. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $81.09 a barrel from $83.17 Monday and $87.33 Friday. It hit a low of $80.89 a barrel during the day. 

 

However, the details of the peace deal, signed electronically by the US and Iran, remain unknown, keeping investors jittery. Dealers said oil companies and other importers bought dollars, noting the relatively low dollar-rupee levels, which limited gains for the rupee. "Importers are always there in the market, but they were not actively bidding today. 94.25-94.30 (a dollar) is a good level, we will see them actively at these levels now," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee also got a boost as some foreign banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of exporters, who fear a further rise in the rupee, they said. "The rupee will not depreciate much now as global factors are positive and crude is also falling. The rupee will mostly be in the 94.00-95.90 range for this month, so it makes sense for exporters to sell dollars," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

Hopes of foreign fund inflows, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's measures, also supported the rupee, they said. The central bank announced a slew of measures to attract foreign capital inflow, including a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident bank deposits till Sept. 30. The RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh FCNR deposits is expected to attract around $43 billion in inflows, according to an Informist poll.

 

"Banks are going all out to attract inflows. Gradually, they are coming, but it will take at least a month to see substantial inflows," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Banks are still waiting for clarity on the details of leverage for loans on FCNR deposits. Once that is in, we can see good inflows." 

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee, according to dealers. On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5600	94.6125	94.4900	94.7125	94.7100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.75	268.25	271.38	266.38	267.21

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased the day's gains and ended broadly steady as a sharp rise in the rupee prompted exporters to sell forward dollars, fearing further rise of the Indian unit, dealers said. However, premiums were supported as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, they said. 

 

A fall in the US Treasury yield Tuesday also supported the premiums, they said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield ‌fell to 4.44% from 4.48% Monday as the market expects the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates on Wednesday. 

 

After hitting a high of 2.87% during the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium settled at 2.82% at 1530 IST, unchanged from Monday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.75 paise, against 267.21 paise Monday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid evolving developments related to the deal between the US and Iran. The local unit will also take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid scepticism over the durability of the peace deal, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Dealers expect importers to step in aggressively and buy around 94.30 per dollar. If the rupee continues to appreciate, dealers expect exporters to step in to sell dollars, fearing a further rise. 

 

Market participants will watch out for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged.

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.50 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 94.30. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.40-94.80 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr falls as mkt remain cautious ahead of Fed meet

 

Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2026

 

	AT 1417 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3418	1.3421	1.3391	1.3409
EUR/USD	1.1600	1.1602	1.1575	1.1589
NZD/USD	0.5823	0.5829	0.5795	0.5815
AUD/USD	0.7062	0.7075	0.7042	0.7069
USD/JPY	160.3120	160.3530	160.0490	160.3400
USD/CAD	1.4004	1.4018	1.3990	1.3980
EUR/JPY	185.9670	185.9940	185.4590	185.8380
CHF/USD	1.2579	1.2592	1.2563	1.2581
EUR/CHF	0.9221	0.9223	0.9204	0.9209

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range. At 1417 IST, the index was at 99.63, down from 99.66 Monday.

 

Meanwhile, investors await details of the agreement signed between the US and Iran, which could end the four-month long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global trade. At least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at an over three-month low of $81.21 a barrel at 1418 IST, down from $83.17 Monday. 

 

The euro fell 0.2% against the dollar, falling back below $1.15 after Monday's slight recovery as the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal. The pound sterling fell 0.2% against the dollar. 

 

The Japanese yen also fell marginally Tuesday even as Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high of 1% from 0.75% on Tuesday. The central bank said the risk of Japan's economy detoriating due to the the West Asia war has diminished due to progress in finding alternative energy supplies.

 

The Swiss franc and Swedish Krona fell 0.3% against the dollar. The Canadian dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Premium up as importers buy fwd dlrs on US-Iran deal uncertainty

 

	AT 1328 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6600	94.6125	94.5300	94.7125	94.7100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.25	268.25	271.38	267.13	267.21

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium inched up as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers as the market remains uncertain about the peace deal between the US and Iran. "Details of Iran's nuclear programme is yet to be finalised. There is enough time for things to go haywire in West Asia. The markets are bracing for either of the outcomes," a dealer at private sector bank said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a high of 2.87% or 271.38 paise Tuesday. 

 

Importers, particularly oil importers, are buying forward dollars owing to a fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a low of 94.7125 a dollar Tuesday. 

 

Premiums were supported by a fall in the US Treasury yield Tuesday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield ‌fell slightly to 4.46% from 4.48% Monday as markets expected the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates on Wednesday. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83% at 1256 IST, up from Monday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.25 paise, against 267.21 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares most gains as importers buy dlrs; fall in crude supports

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7025	94.6125	94.5300	94.7125	94.7100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers due to uncertainty about the peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. "Importers are totally in the market. Oilers are making merry of lower crude prices," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers said the market is optimistically cautious, as it awaits details of a peace deal that could end the months-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global trade. US President Donald Trump Monday said the deal with Iran was electronically signed and Hormuz would reopen fully by Friday. At least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery remained over three-month low at $82.71 a barrel, down from $83.17 Monday.  

 

However, key issues such as Iran's nuclear enrichment and release of frozen Iranian assets of up to $24 billion will be dicussed within the extended ceasefire period of 60 days. Dealers said decisions on these key issue would be vital to determine crude oil's direction and, consequently, the rupee's movement. 

 

Dealers said banks sold dollar on behalf of exporters in a small volume, which supported the Indian unit. The dollar index rose sharply, which weighed on the rupee, as investors keenly await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and its policy statement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at the meeting. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.30-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar.

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India Rupee: Rises as crude falls a bit on optimism over US-Iran peace deal

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5850	94.6125	94.5300	94.6250	94.7100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices fell slightly after dropping to a three-month low on Monday, with the market optimistic about the peace deal between the US and Iran, even as it awaits details of the agreement.

US President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran has been "all signed", and the Strait of Hormuz will be completely open by Friday. At least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the US announced the removal of its naval blockade as part of the deal signed with Iran.

 

Crude oil prices fell to $82.90 a barrel from $83.17 Monday and $87.33 Friday. "The trading band for crude oil for this week is $75-$85 a barrel. Crude will stay in this range, and it is beneficial for India, as it is an import-dependent nation," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said exporters sold dollars, fearing further appreciation of the rupee, which supported the Indian unit. "There is some selling by exporters, but not much. They are waiting for Friday, until the deal is signed and there is more clarity," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

However, market participants expect gains for the Indian currency to be limited, as importers may buy dollars actively, given the relatively low dollar-rupee levels. "Importers and oilers are going to make merry from lower crude prices," a dealer at another private sector bank said.

 

A slight rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0915 IST, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 were up 0.3?ch. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.30-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 16

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tusday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.85	94.25
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.70	94.30
Foreign bank	94.80	94.40
Brokerage firm	94.85	94.25
Brokerage firm	94.85	94.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as market await details of US-Iran peace deal

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed in early trade Tuesday as market sentiment remained positive owing to the peace deal between the US and Iran, but traders were cautious as they await more details on the deal, which could end the war permanently.

 

Crude oil prices were broadly steady Tuesday after falling to a three-month low Monday. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $83.48 a barrel, against $83.17 Monday. 

 

US President Donald Trump and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi Monday announced that they had reached an initial deal to end the war. Trump said the memorandum of understanding with Iran has been "all signed", and the Strait of Hormuz will be completely open by Friday. "Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz. They are going along the Southern "Highway," which is totally safe, secure, and pristine," he said in a post on Truth Social. 

At least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the US announced the removal of its naval blockade as part of the deal signed with Iran.

 

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was Trump's decision to sign a deal with Iran and that Israel had its own interests. He also said Israel would remain in the buffer zone in Lebanon. 

 

The South Korean won rose marginally to 1513.28 a dollar from 1513.97 Monday. The Thai baht was steady against the dollar at 32.54 Tuesday. The Malaysian ringgit fell to 4.055 a dollar from 4.048 Tuesday. 

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.3% to 60.38 from 60.22 a dollar Monday. The Chinese yuan and the Taiwanese dollar were broadly stable against dollar Tuesday. Market participants await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement, due Wednesday as per GMT.  

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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