More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's probabilistic El Nino-Southern Oscillation forecast for July to December suggest a 99.4% chance of strong El Nino conditions during the period, the climate centre said in its monthly forecast report on Monday. The presence of strong El Nino conditions is likely to lead to a strongly "enhanced" probability of below-normal rainfall over India from July to September, and an "enhanced" probability of below normal precipitation over the country from October to December, it said.

 

The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is in the 'El Nino' alert, which is issued when such an event is nearly developed and expected to persist in the next three months. The sea surface temperatures need to be greater than or equal to 0.5 degrees Celsius for two months consecutively for the 'El Nino' alert to be declared, the climate centre said.

 

Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to persist along the equator from July to December, with the clear indication of the developing El Nino, it said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index is likely to be 1.97 degrees Celsius in July, after which it is expected to increase to up to 3.14 degrees Celsius by December. El Nino conditions are the most probable, with 100% chances of the event during the forecast period, the centre said.

 

For El Nino to emerge, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This threshold must persist for at least five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods, and must be accompanied by corresponding changes in tropical atmospheric circulation.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

In Jul-Sept, there is a strongly "enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures across the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean, the climate centre said. In Oct–Dec, the climate centre continues to see a strongly "enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures for these regions. Above normal temperatures are mostly probable for most of the globe except for some parts of the south Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean during the forecast period, it said.

 

The climate centre's forecast suggests below normal rainfall during the entirety of the southwest monsoon, which spans from June to September. Precipitation is also likely to remain below normal during the northeast monsoon, which begins in October and ends in December.

 

Rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in India is likely to be below normal due to the development of El Nio, the India Meteorological Department said. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the weather department said. Most international climate models indicate the development of El Nino during the monsoon, with the probability of such an event at 92% during the season, the department said.  End 

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.