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Informist, Monday, Jun. 15, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The onset of the southwest monsoon over Mumbai is likely during the fourth week of June, and could be as delayed as it was in 2023, said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet. In 2023, the monsoon hit the city on Jun. 25, two weeks after the normal onset date of Jun. 11.

 

"Earlier conditions were favourable for onset, which is why I had expected Mumbai onset around Jun. 14–15," Palawat said. "But now, conditions are no longer favourable, and monsoon onset over Mumbai this year could be the most delayed on record." 

 

The western arm of the monsoon trough has remained stalled since Jun. 8 due to the lack of favourable western systems, Palawat said. "There should be a favourable weather system over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabia Sea to help the monsoon trough move forward, but both areas have very low activity right now. I don't think the western arm (of the monsoon trough) will move for at least the next one week," he said.

 

The eastern arm of the monsoon trough, which has also remained in the same position as it was on Friday, is likely to advance further over some parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and other eastern parts of the country in the next four to five days, Palawat said. "I can't say the same about the western arm (of the monsoon trough), it will remain stalled for at least the next seven or eight days, and only after that it will advance over Mumbai around Jun. 25," he said.

 

The advancement of the monsoon trough has been slow in the past few days as the monsoon flow is "weak," according to an official from the India Meteorological Department's regional meteorological centre, Mumbai. "There are no clouds forming, there are no weather systems forming, so monsoon flow is weak. However, this is not related to the formation of El Nino conditions," the official said. While the official said that the weather department couldn't forecast a tentative date of monsoon onset over Mumbai, conditions could become favourable for the further movement of the monsoon trough in the next three to four days.

 

After the onset over mainland Kerala on Jun. 4, the monsoon trough had picked up pace along the western coast of the country, hitting Goa on its normal date of Jun. 5. After it hit Goa, the trough made a much slower advance over the southern Konkan coast. The western branch of the trough has remained stalled over Harnai and Solapur in Maharashtra since Jun. 8, while the eastern branch has stayed put over Paradeep and Baripada in Odisha, Dhanbad in Jharkhand, and Muzaffarpur in Bihar. 

 

The most predominant feature for aiding the monsoon current along the western coast of the country is the formation of a low-pressure area or monsoon depression over central and northern parts of the Bay of Bengal, Skymet said in a report on Saturday. "There is no likelihood of any such system till Jun. 20, and it could extend even further," the private weather agency said.

 

Last year, the monsoon hit Mumbai on May 26, the earliest ever recorded. In 2023, monsoon onset over the city was delayed by nearly two weeks. The arrival of the monsoon trough over Mumbai was the most delayed in 2023, 2019, and 1959, when it advanced over the city on Jun. 25.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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